CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not bad for MOS That is a VERY long duration (9 hours for 30 knot+ sustained) winds peaking at astro high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INTHECLUTCH24 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 does anyone else think irene looks much better organized over nc right now than it did when it was offshore? look at the satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Irene is certainly taking its sweet time just east of New Bern, NC right now based on radar. I don't like how much of mainland NC it appears it may go over. Appears to have stalled. Expect a more NE movement to commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm a little confused as to where the strongest winds will be. On the one hand I would think that they would be just west of the track over by New Haven or Bridgeport. But then it looks like there's this strong LLJ to the east by the cape. I almost feel like SE CT could be caught in a hole but maybe I am imagining that. I think the Cape has the highest gust potential for SNE (E LI should out do everyone though I think). But there could be some pretty impressive winds out of the SE along the CT coast tomorrow morning. SE CT should do fine for winds as they are more exposed out of the SE than further west, so that makes up for some of the difference. But you have to remember this is not a compact wind field...its enormous and sprawls well east and will be expanding even more by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I would go to the coast about 50 miles east of landfall. Hmm that's pretty much where I am. I guess I'll just stop worrying about it. I just don't want to be stuck in lame 35G50 when everyone around is 50G70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not bad for MOS That is a VERY long duration (9 hours for 30 knot+ sustained) winds peaking at astro high tide. Probably underdone too. BDR does very well due to narrowing of coast and land orientation. I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest gust for CT happened there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NHC predicting 4-8 ft surge into LIS and the ny city area, in line with Ryans thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Off to Boston. Irene will be a classic landfalling cane giving us what was called when I was a kid the "tail end"...which translates into significant blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 HSE on about hour 10 of TS conditions. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KHSE.html I feel pretty safe at this range that sustained hurricane winds are a longshot here.... Interesting that the NHC isn't bumping up probs here with that LLJ Sunday or at least isn't yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Alright goo luck to all. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well if that westward track would verify would that mean more of SNE would be in the potential for isolated tornadoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 messenger, For some reason the map you posted for hurricane force probs isn't showing the area of 10-20% that is into SE CT/RI. I have the graphic up and see the 10-20% line into these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 First downpour of the cane just finished up ..sun back out now. Let's soften up the ground as much as possible to maximize tree damage when the 75mph gusts come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 does anyone else think irene looks much better organized over nc right now than it did when it was offshore? look at the satellite imagery. it was at least briefly appearing to improve to me on the radar too.. and continues to fill in on the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The massive windfield in this is one of the reasons I'm going to the Cape for this one. Normally they might be well east of the best winds in a smaller storm, but looking at the data, its hard to ignore what may happen there tomorrow afternoon into the evening. I think we should see some hurricane force gusts down there. I doubt anyone sees sustained hurricane force winds, but I could see a lot of gusts >70 knots if that 70-75 knots just off the deck can get mixed down from time to time. this off the 06z GFS. HYA. ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not bad for MOS That is a VERY long duration (9 hours for 30 knot+ sustained) winds peaking at astro high tide. yeah not at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 messenger, For some reason the map you posted for hurricane force probs isn't showing the area of 10-20% that is into SE CT/RI. I have the graphic up and see the 10-20% line into these areas. That's what I see on NHC... messengers is different Nevermind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 this off the 06z GFS. HYA. ripping. Yeah...the 12z NAM text soundings were just as impressive. 70 kts at 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 First downpour of the cane just finished up ..sun back out now. Let's soften up the ground as much as possible to maximize tree damage when the 75mph gusts come If only we didn't have that torched July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah...the 12z NAM text soundings were just as impressive. 70 kts at 950mb. should be an interesting study in where that pressure level is. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm a little confused as to where the strongest winds will be. On the one hand I would think that they would be just west of the track over by New Haven or Bridgeport. But then it looks like there's this strong LLJ to the east by the cape. I almost feel like SE CT could be caught in a hole but maybe I am imagining that. Sometimes the CApe can be too far` east for best winds when you get a cane to lf over western CT like in 1938. I'd guess most of CT and RI for highest gusts..but the Cape should ripp pretty good too..I don't think you want to be too far` east in this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Sometimes the CApe can be too far` east for best winds when you get a cane to lf over western CT like in 1938. I'd guess most of CT and RI for highest gusts..but the Cape should ripp pretty good too..I don't think you want to be too far` east in this one If I were to pick somewhere to be I'd pick BDR, MTP, or anywhere on Nantucket Sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That's what I see on NHC... messengers is different Nevermind... That's weird, mine is hot linked directly from the NHC site? That's not an image I uploaded, you are all pulling it from NHC. I see that it is based on the 8am. It is what I see when I go to the Irene portion of the page right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Sometimes the CApe can be too far` east for best winds when you get a cane to lf over western CT like in 1938. I'd guess most of CT and RI for highest gusts..but the Cape should ripp pretty good too..I don't think you want to be too far` east in this one Can't believe you are staying in Tolland over FMH in this setup. FMH is in a great spot south facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not enjoying this 73/71 at all... Just finished getting my outside ready... put stuff in the shed, basement, garage Something hatched yesterday. 1000's of flying ants in the pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well if that westward track would verify would that mean more of SNE would be in the potential for isolated tornadoes? From SPC Day 2 re: Irene ...HURRICANE IRENE... HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNEWD ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND LIKELY COME ASHORE OVER WRN LONG ISLAND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN ITS EXPECTED TRACK...MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...TO THE RIGHT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN THETA-E AND BUOYANCY. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE STRONGEST SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Can't believe you are staying in Tolland over FMH in this setup. FMH is in a great spot south facing. I know it is...but I just have a gut feeling about this in CT. Plus if trees come down on the house or wires out front..I really need to be here with the fam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Can't believe you are staying in Tolland over FMH in this setup. FMH is in a great spot south facing. I would def rather be in FMH than Tolland. Only other place I'd consider would be E LI or somewhere on the CT shore that's exposed and near where the core will track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If I were to pick somewhere to be I'd pick BDR, MTP, or anywhere on Nantucket Sound I would pick anywhere from BDR to UUU right on the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is going to go over a lot of mainland NC it seems. We'll see if it has much affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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