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Hurricane Irene - Discussion V

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Previous Discussion

Track of Irene still looks inline for a C/W LI up into CT direct hit.

I have not read the last thread this last night but it looks like there were a lot of whiners.

I created a thread for that. Please go there.

http://www.americanw...ene-bch-thread/

This may not bring the sustained 100mph winds that some of you were expecting, but if you think this storm is a dud, you could not be further from the truth. This storm is going to bring heavy rains, flooding, a storm surge we haven't sen in quite some time, and sustained TS force winds at a minimum, Gusts will approach 80-90 mph for some. With the trees full of foliage and the anticipated heavy rains, this storm will be no slouch. Trees/limbs will fall, debris will be blown all around, boats not moored properly can be damaged.

It does not look as though NHC/BOX/ALB/OKX have changed any of their watches/warnings. The NHC still has this as w Cat 1 at landfall.

I brought my winter juju to a tropical threat and it panned out. :tomato:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

We'll have to keep an eye on the track later this evening. To maintain strongest win gust potential, we'll want to see it just off the coast up off Delmarva and NJ and not track inland. Looks like the Euro didn't track it as far west, but still on the coastline...a shade east of that would be ideal.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Previous Discussion

http://www.americanw...ussion-part-iv/

Track of Irene still looks inline for a C/W LI up into CT direct hit.

I have not read the last thread this last night but it looks like there were a lot of whiners.

I created a thread for that. Please go there.

http://www.americanw...ene-bch-thread/

This may not bring the sustained 100mph winds that some of you were expecting, but if you think this storm is a dud, you could not be further from the truth. This storm is going to bring heavy rains, flooding, a storm surge we haven't sen in quite some time, and sustained TS force winds at a minimum, Gusts will approach 80-90 mph for some. With the trees full of foliage and the anticipated heavy rains, this storm will be no slouch. Trees/limbs will fall, debris will be blown all around, boats not moored properly can be damaged.

It does not look as though NHC/BOX/ALB/OKX have changed any of their watches/warnings. The NHC still has this as w Cat 1 at landfall.

I brought my winter juju to a tropical threat and it panned out. :tomato:

and the track continues to be right through the CT Valley.

I may have to shut off the computers for a while today just so I can get something done. lol

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Hopefully this thread stays positive....the other one became a train wreck!

Looking for a good ride where I am as guidance seems to be coming together with a track just to my west. I was happy to see the Euro come east and just off the NJ shore but I do think that it might be close to having it come into SNE as hurricane, but even 73mph is powerful stuff! I don't think that some people realize that....

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Posted

We'll have to keep an eye on the track later this evening. To maintain strongest win gust potential, we'll want to see it just off the coast up off Delmarva and NJ and not track inland. Looks like the Euro didn't track it as far west, but still on the coastline...a shade east of that would be ideal.

NAM went east :weenie:

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Hopefully this thread stays positive....the other one became a train wreck!

Looking for a good ride where I am as guidance seems to be coming together with a track just to my west. I was happy to see the Euro come east and just off the NJ shore but I do think that it might be close to having it come into SNE as hurricane, but even 73mph is powerful stuff! I don't think that some people realize that....

Exactly.

I'm guessing there will be at least half a million w/o power in NE.

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

Is this a hurricane as of right now? Are there any obs on sea or land that are indicating that? I'm looking at Beaufort and Cape Lookout, neither got all that close. Diamond Shoals has come to the closest.

I realize it's going to maintain a large, broad windfield of 50+ knots, but is it a hurricane at 8am?

There are numerous such observations (or at least references to them) in the main Irene thread.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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OK bridge jumpers... here are my morning thoughts. http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/27/irene-weakens-overnight-significant-threat-remains/

The comparison to Gloria is a good one but you need to keep a few things in mind. I used Bridgeport since they picked up the worst in SNE from her.

1) Gloria produced almost no rain in SNE outside of the Berkshires. BDR was in the "eyewall" along the track and had 0.62" of rain. Places to the east had less.

2) The duration of >30mph wind gusts in Bridgeport during Gloria was 5 hours. Duration of >50 mph wind gusts was 3.5 hours.

3) Gloria arrived at low tide.

With all those in mind... even if you shave 10 mph off the winds... I still think we could be looking at inland wind damage just as bad as Gloria with absolutely soaked soil and weakened roots.

The inland flood threat particularly from the CT River Valley west into the Litchfield Hills/Berkshires is quite severe. I'm very worried about some of the rivers out there. Antecedent wet conditions from basin wide 6-12" is going to cause big, big problems... especially with that rain falling in 12 hours.

Storm surge threat, particularly in LIS and Narragansett Bay is quite severe. The worst of Irene will be moving into the Sound during one of the highest high tides of the month. That coupled with the longer duration of gale force winds than Gloria could make the surge rival the December 1992 noreaster in the sound. A 4'-8' surge at high tide would be the worst coastal flooding in the western Sound in the last 100 years.

This storm has a completely different structure than Gloria. Instead of all the rain being west of the track in the RRQ of a strong/huge trough in the eastern US we're seeing a PRE develop out ahead of the storm and the potential for 6" of rain in a location before 70 mph gusts.

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mattmfm

mattmfm

Posted
Posted

AS I've had since the beginning..I still like HVN as LF to about 20 miles west of ORh as a cat 1.

Winds gusting 55-75..isolated 80 inland..stronger at shore

not a chance :lol: It'll be a good, maybe even great storm, but I'm not even expecting winds that strong down here, let alone inland in SNE. Probably some gusts to 70-75mph along the coast.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

There are numerous such observations (or at least references to them) in the main Irene thread.

Was mainly talking official stations/buoys...but I did see the tweets etc.

It'll be interesting to follow what happens as it is over land this morning.

Also will be interesting to see what a large area of 45-60 mph sustained winds do on saturated grounds up here with higher gusts.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Was mainly talking official stations/buoys...but I did see the tweets etc.

It'll be interesting to follow what happens as it is over land this morning.

Also will be interesting to see what a large area of 45-60 mph sustained winds do on saturated grounds up here with higher gusts.

Yeah that's the biggest concern IMO for winds. Plus surge. Plus rain.

For CT this will be one of the few hurricanes (only 1938 comes to mind) where surge, river flooding, and damaging winds will occur in the state simultaneously.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

OK bridge jumpers... here are my morning thoughts. http://ryanhanrahan....threat-remains/

The comparison to Gloria is a good one but you need to keep a few things in mind. I used Bridgeport since they picked up the worst in SNE from her.

1) Gloria produced almost no rain in SNE outside of the Berkshires. BDR was in the "eyewall" along the track and had 0.62" of rain. Places to the east had less.

2) The duration of >30mph wind gusts in Bridgeport during Gloria was 5 hours. Duration of >50 mph wind gusts was 3.5 hours.

3) Gloria arrived at low tide.

With all those in mind... even if you shave 10 mph off the winds... I still think we could be looking at inland wind damage just as bad as Gloria with absolutely soaked soil and weakened roots.

The inland flood threat particularly from the CT River Valley west into the Litchfield Hills/Berkshires is quite severe. I'm very worried about some of the rivers out there. Antecedent wet conditions from basin wide 6-12" is going to cause big, big problems... especially with that rain falling in 12 hours.

Storm surge threat, particularly in LIS and Narragansett Bay is quite severe. The worst of Irene will be moving into the Sound during one of the highest high tides of the month. That coupled with the longer duration of gale force winds than Gloria could make the surge rival the December 1992 noreaster in the sound. A 4'-8' surge at high tide would be the worst coastal flooding in the western Sound in the last 100 years.

This storm has a completely different structure than Gloria. Instead of all the rain being west of the track in the RRQ of a strong/huge trough in the eastern US we're seeing a PRE develop out ahead of the storm and the potential for 6" of rain in a location before 70 mph gusts.

Excellent points. I really hope your viewers in CT and beyond pay attention.

Still thinking 6-12" of rain for some? Wow. The PRE is a real table setter,

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

From the 8:00 AM NHC statement...

----

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A

HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW

ENGLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

260 MILES...415 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 84

MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Posted

Why there and not SRI or CT?

Because my grandparents have a house there. Winds on the Cape should be nearly as good anyway presuming the track stays off shore of NJ. The LLJ out of the SW is very impressive over that region later tomorrow afternoon.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Yeah that's the biggest concern IMO for winds. Plus surge. Plus rain.

For CT this will be one of the few hurricanes (only 1938 comes to mind) where surge, river flooding, and damaging winds will occur in the state simultaneously.

Trying to figure out what the surge is going to do. Thinking it's not going to be a huge deal...with the track further west potentially we will see some east winds too instead of an onslaught of generally southerly. I think we "may" dodge the bullet to the east over here.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Trying to figure out what the surge is going to do. Thinking it's not going to be a huge deal...with the track further west potentially we will see some east winds too instead of an onslaught of generally southerly. I think we "may" dodge the bullet to the east over here.

I wouldn't be worried on Cape Cod Bay.

I think the threat for erosion is there in RI especially... but it's Long Island Sound that has me most concerned.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Posted

I wouldn't be worried on Cape Cod Bay.

I think the threat for erosion is there in RI especially... but it's Long Island Sound that has me most concerned.

The Bay is fine, not worried about that at all (although it's amazing how everyone has pulled kayaks and small boats as if the blizzard of 78 was coming)....I just am wondering if there will be much of a surge in BB.

If the low level jet rocks Sunday and we get several hours of 50-70 up the chute...it could get ugly.

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