snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Radar doesnt show it moving much at all http://radar.weather...id=mhx&loop=yes Hmmm thats really weird... GFS does let it rot of NC for like 12 hours almost. Maybe slightly east on last few frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not sure why some people are complaining...this is still going to present serious issues across the region. So what if the storm won't be the strong cat 1 that was first thought. The scale right now means very little. So what if we don't get those 90-100 mph gusts. Even if winds are only in the 50-70 mph range with gusts a tad higher...those winds will do serious damage here, especially when you take into account the saturated grounds on top of pretty a month and a half worth's of rain in locations. Plus the duration of the winds...looking at about 8 hours of prolonged damaging winds. Storm surge is still going to be pretty damn extreme and the threat for flooding is very high. This is going to have major impacts on a tremendous amount of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Can you ban them for a few days instead..and the negative ones who try to mask their whining And maybe the hopeless cheerleaders. Euro pulled it out in the end. Looks like the GFS caved a hair or two west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS scrapes the NJ coast and then landfalls in W LI through Bridgeport or HVN. Happy now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS slowed down the storm getting here? Am i reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 yeah, not moving much, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS Is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS takes it until after 00z tonight to move it out of NE NC. That is slow as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 .21 in the gauge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INTHECLUTCH24 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just looking at the live coverage in eastern nc and hampton roads va this storm is very impressive considering it is slow moving over land. People have began to say the storm isn't going to be serious but if we get those same conds of storm force winds and torrential rain here in sne and nyc metro there are going to be some major disruptions to life and property in regards to power outages and tree damage and extreme flooding. If Irene stays offshore New Jersey and makes landfall on western Long Island those hurricane warnings are going to verify in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That part of NC is like a giant swamp barely above sea level with a ton of inlets, so I don't think that is going to have a huge effect. A bigger concern is getting it to jog E so it doesn't go over the length of NJ inland.any timeline for best wind impacts tomorrow for se ma/cape? sorry if already discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS takes it until after 00z tonight to move it out of NE NC. That is slow as hell. So does the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not sure why some people are complaining...this is still going to present serious issues across the region. So what if the storm won't be the strong cat 1 that was first thought. The scale right now means very little. So what if we don't get those 90-100 mph gusts. Even if winds are only in the 50-70 mph range with gusts a tad higher...those winds will do serious damage here, especially when you take into account the saturated grounds on top of pretty a month and a half worth's of rain in locations. Plus the duration of the winds...looking at about 8 hours of prolonged damaging winds. Storm surge is still going to be pretty damn extreme and the threat for flooding is very high. This is going to have major impacts on a tremendous amount of people. Don't worry...CT Blizz is sure it will be a cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Good let it sit over those swamps and tighten and strengthen for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not sure why some people are complaining...this is still going to present serious issues across the region. So what if the storm won't be the strong cat 1 that was first thought. The scale right now means very little. So what if we don't get those 90-100 mph gusts. Even if winds are only in the 50-70 mph range with gusts a tad higher...those winds will do serious damage here, especially when you take into account the saturated grounds on top of pretty a month and a half worth's of rain in locations. Plus the duration of the winds...looking at about 8 hours of prolonged damaging winds. Storm surge is still going to be pretty damn extreme and the threat for flooding is very high. This is going to have major impacts on a tremendous amount of people. I'm not posting this time to whine, but I really can't see how Middle and eastern NE gets that much rain. If you look at Gloria's track and this track, the rainfall total in Gloria was pretty slim in most areas. I think VT and extreme W MA get a good rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just looking at the live coverage in eastern nc and hampton roads va this storm is very impressive considering it is slow moving over land. People have began to say the storm isn't going to be serious but if we get those same conds of storm force winds and torrential rain here in sne and nyc metro there are going to be some major disruptions to life and property in regards to power outages and tree damage and extreme flooding. If Irene stays offshore New Jersey and makes landfall on western Long Island those hurricane warnings are going to verify in many areas. I like this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 any timeline for best wind impacts tomorrow for se ma/cape? sorry if already discussed Def between 18z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 How is the new NAM/GFS track compare to the older Euro tracks? It stunk for awhile but it seems like in the end the western edge may have been the way to go? How much damage does this do the windfield if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not posting this time to whine, but I really can't see how Middle and eastern NE gets that much rain. If you look at Gloria's track and this track, the rainfall total in Gloria was pretty slim in most areas. I think VT and extreme W MA get a good rain. No ****. That's typical with tropical systems up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INTHECLUTCH24 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Is there any reason why Irene is modeled now to slowly leave NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well, so what if we don't get as much rain? We have plenty of rainstorms anyways. What is exciting about this storm is the WIND! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Is there any reason why Irene is modeled now to slowly leave NC? Its not moving right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's pretty cool how the core has tightened over land. It actually looks pretty darn nice right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not posting this time to whine, but I really can't see how Middle and eastern NE gets that much rain. If you look at Gloria's track and this track, the rainfall total in Gloria was pretty slim in most areas. I think VT and extreme W MA get a good rain. Even 2-5'' of rain is still a decent amount, sure it may not be the 6-12'' they may see further west but 2-5'' of rain will still lead to some flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Boy, I see no movement in this storm the past hour. Just sitting there. At least those the water in those swamps must be bathwater warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 How is the new NAM/GFS track compare to the older Euro tracks? It stunk for awhile but it seems like in the end the western edge may have been the way to go? How much damage does this do the windfield if any? Well the older Euro tracks up into the Catskills still look pretty crazy, but those tracks hugging the NJ coast look like they may have scored a coup. We still have 24 hours until it gets up that far, so time for it to change, but I'm def leaning along those lines now. Its been a pretty crazy storm to track thus far. It certainly doesn't seem to be affecting potential winds on the Cape too much or even south coastal RI/LI/SE CT...perhaps it could lessen the winds right near the core (or remnant core) if it tracks too much over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Satellite Precip estimation graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Its not moving right now... That's the simplest explanation DT put an interesting graphic up on his page, no hurricane force winds even in gusts right now over NC. A couple of places about 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Latest radar returns from Moorhead suggests its move due NE right now. Ever so slightly though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well the older Euro tracks up into the Catskills still look pretty crazy, but those tracks hugging the NJ coast look like they may have scored a coup. We still have 24 hours until it gets up that far, so time for it to change, but I'm def leaning along those lines now. Its been a pretty crazy storm to track thus far. It certainly doesn't seem to be affecting potential winds on the Cape too much or even south coastal RI/LI/SE CT...perhaps it could lessen the winds right near the core (or remnant core) if it tracks too much over land. Thanks, I think our winds should make it over 50 regardless, but the possibility of significantly higher..80+ may be winding down. Surprised with the lack of significant wind over NC right now but again impressive 70mph gusts to the south and east of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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