Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My daughter's school just got canceled for tomorrow Bridgewater-Raynham. Kind of sucks now with the automated phone calls...Takes to excitement out of waking up and listening to the radio or watch tv and hoping to see/hear your town. Just don't tell her until tomorrow morning. In fact let her get ready and then spring it on her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1.25"... Good god, that is a huge shift. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Blend the meso models/ NAM and Euro..blend them.. mmm ok and where will this blend close of the mid level low over the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 See you and raise you 21" Lol,your bluffing all in 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 umm ok and where will this blend close of the mid level low over the coastal? Did you read Gibb's post on model blending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm miffed right now, honestly. I'm going to drill the SREF's into my head. They seem to be more inline with the Euro at this point so I like that blend right now. The NAM is still the outlier along with the rest of the Mesoscale Models (MM5, RGEM, etc...) You're fine Bob. The 9z SREF's mirrored the 12z GEFS in a lot of ways. Now the 12z Euro is along the same vein....lock it up, forget about your rain, you're getting a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good god, that is a huge shift. Thanks It was a huge shift here from about Bangor south........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the slight tick E of the GFS ens mean, 12z NAM (still amped but ticked E from 06z), and 12z Euro might be hinting that a Buzzards Bay or Narragansett Bay track was a little too amped up. But I've learned never to discount anything in a setup like this...all we have to do is look back to a little over 5 years ago. Yeah that's what scares me. It looked perhaps a hair se of the actual low..which is quite evident on visible sat. I think the key will be the winds at HSE. Some of the models have the low kissing HSE, causing winds to go vrb or even se. If it stays north..then perhaps something like the euro happens, but it looked like even the euro brought the low very close to HSE. Even so, it looks like the low goes almost due north from HSE for a time, thanks to all the forcing and the help of the baroclinic boundary in place. The models are really pointing the isobars to the north and nw, indicating just that. The key seems to be what happens south of MTP. Will it turn ene like 50 miles to the south, or will it get very close to MTP..then turn ene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 very heavy snow late tonight into all day wed until late afternoon for sne area with near 20 inches of snowfall . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The old school ETA is almost better than the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 can someone tell me how much snow this would be for new haven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Primary over the mid west sure is strong, holding together very well, I wonder if that delays transfer to the coast and that is what the Euro is picking up on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 very heavy snow late tonight into all day wed until late afternoon for sne area with near 20 inches of snowfall . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You're fine Bob. The 9z SREF's mirrored the 12z GEFS in a lot of ways. Now the 12z Euro is along the same vein....lock it up, forget about your rain, you're getting a lot of snow. I just logged on. Does the euro change us over at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm chucking up a 20" for me. I just want to hear a met say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ha! But businesses have to balance a day's work vs lawsuits if someone is hurt on the way to/from work... At my old job, our company had an incident where a secretary was killed driving home in an ice storm after her boss wouldn't let her leave early. He later became the regional VP for health and safety. Big settlement $$$ Not sure if I follow you - the company was sued . . . huge settlement, and even though there was this lawsuit and settlement, the guy who was in charged when the company was sued was promoted? So he was rewarded for losing the company tons of money in a settlement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 You're fine Bob. The 9z SREF's mirrored the 12z GEFS in a lot of ways. Now the 12z Euro is along the same vein....lock it up, forget about your rain, you're getting a lot of snow. I've been hedging myself that way all day. I think I'll max out at like 34-35F but hopefully I am thumping big time by then. Any changeover will make the difference between my getting 12-14 vs 18-20, I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I just want to hear a met say it. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah that's what scares me. It looked perhaps a hair se of the actual low..which is quite evident on visible sat. I think the key will be the winds at HSE. Some of the models have the low kissing HSE, causing winds to go vrb or even se. If it stays north..then perhaps something like the euro happens, but it looked like even the euro brought the low very close to HSE. Even so, it looks like the low goes almost due north from HSE for a time, thanks to all the forcing and the help of the baroclinic boundary in place. The models are really pointing the isobars to the north and nw, indicating just that. The key seems to be what happens south of MTP. Will it turn ene like 50 miles to the south, or will it get very close to MTP..then turn ene. From upstream Philly office 10:45 am discussion: the surface low pressure system off the southern North Carolina continues to be tucked in toward the western edge of the model solutions. Its intensity is pretty much on track. Anyone (messenger, Will, Tip, Coastal) want to add to this realtime analysis of the low position to get a sense of ETA/RGEM vs. GFS verification...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 From upstream Philly office 10:45 am discussion: the surface low pressure system off the southern North Carolina continues to be tucked in toward the western edge of the model solutions. Its intensity is pretty much on track. Anyone (messenger, Will, Tip, Coastal) want to add to this realtime analysis of the low position to get a sense of ETA/RGEM vs. GFS verification...? It certainly gives credence to the meso models...if that position is toward them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anybody doing a beer/shot per inch for a time tommorrow? (just kidding we wouldn't engage in behavior like that)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A little disappointed at the euro but still feel comfortable with 12-20. If the nam at 18z trends dramatically toward the gfs I'll be a bit more nervous that an 8-14 forecast would have been better in ct. Will to kgay are in great shape for 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Where's the low????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are there any signs of NNE getting in on the action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I just want to hear a met say it. WHAT ABOUT ZEUS. ISN'T ZEUS GOOD ENOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 can someone tell me how much snow this would be for new haven Around 20"...but I wouldn't get too attached to that...gonna depend on exactly where banding sets up. Still...HVN on east looking good for 12" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ratios must be excellent on the for ORH on the NAM with the -12 to -18 C temps around 600-650mbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are there any signs of NNE getting in on the action? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A little disappointed at the euro but still feel comfortable with 12-20. If the nam at 18z trends dramatically toward the gfs I'll be a bit more nervous that an 8-14 forecast would have been better in ct. Will to kgay are in great shape for 12+ personally thought the 10-16" forecast statewide from this morning's broadcast made sense...actually exactly what I had in mind. Just add in some wording to allow for some spot 20" amounts in the east and lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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