Bruschi Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I just logged on. Does the euro change us over at all? I think we will change over for a few hours down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are there any signs of NNE getting in on the action? Yes. It's getting better if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 From upstream Philly office 10:45 am discussion: the surface low pressure system off the southern North Carolina continues to be tucked in toward the western edge of the model solutions. Its intensity is pretty much on track. Anyone (messenger, Will, Tip, Coastal) want to add to this realtime analysis of the low position to get a sense of ETA/RGEM vs. GFS verification...? No because ultimately I think it's a red herring right now unless you live at HSE. It's a hit here regardless on ALL models. The only difference is the epic NAM hit or the GFS/Euro compromise. The westward track right now has to do with the gradient offshore, no the dynamics in question off Jersey in 25-35 hours. When I was younger I spent a ton of time watching storms at this stage instead of looking aloft. I figured out 2-3 mb pressure differences, 20 miles here or there at this stage based LOOSELY on buoy obs...meant nothing in the end aside of the rare 1/25 type event. Later on tonight if we have a low curling towards Wall Street I'll care, the NAM does what it does not because it's further west with the surface low when we know it should be a bit further west. It's how it's handling the energy around TN/OH that matters for us from this being the great blizzard of 2011, to a great snowstorm of 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1.25"... is that for Lebanon, NH, or Lebanon, ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 personally thought the 10-16" forecast statewide from this morning's broadcast made sense...actually exactly what I had in mind. Just add in some wording to allow for some spot 20" amounts in the east and lock it in. Yeah 10-16 may have been more prudent but I think if we can get into the ccb we are going to rip some incredible rates. Mid level low track perfect for us. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Compare the 18z 0h RUC along with the water vapor to the 12z 6h NAM. Nam had a tough time pinning down the vorticity yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ratios must be excellent on the for ORH on the NAM with the -12 to -18 C temps around 600-650mbs. Very nice! That graphic is kind of odd wrt how they label the velocities though. I've always been used to the units being in -ubar/sec so that + meant upward velocities but it appears this is switched here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes. It's getting better if you like snow. Theres nothing right now that leads me to believe its done getting better either overall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 19 degrees @ 2k. Filtered sun. Low, dark cloud deck now very visible on the SW horizon. Closing in fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 is that for Lebanon, NH, or Lebanon, ME? NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Where's the low????? Here's my take based on vis sat, wind directions, and the one bouy reading of 1016mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well, here we go.... Decided to go gung ho with banding seeing as the NAM showed bands approaching and pivoting out pretty much overhead for someone in Western ME... Someone around me dryslut and gayhawk could end up with a great total.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anybody doing a beer/shot per inch for a time tommorrow? (just kidding we wouldn't engage in behavior like that)? Too early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No because ultimately I think it's a red herring right now unless you live at HSE. It's a hit here regardless on ALL models. The only difference is the epic NAM hit or the GFS. The westward track right now has to do with the gradient offshore, no the dynamics in question off Jersey in 25-35 hours. When I was younger I spent a ton of time watching storms at this stage instead of looking aloft. I figured out 2-3 mb pressure differences, 20 miles here or there at this stage based LOOSELY on buoy obs...meant nothing in the end aside of the rare 1/25 type event. Later on tonight if we have a low curling towards Wall Street I'll care, the NAM does what it does not because it's further west with the surface low when we know it should be a bit further west. It's how it's handling the energy around TN/OH that matters for us from this being the great blizzard of 2011, to a great snowstorm of 2011 i'll puke.....with the coastal LP tucked in tight to NC coast and argued to go northerly for a while and the 500mb vort a little stronger/ slower could this low just keep riding north a lil longer almost until it over central long island.....that is the worst case scenario in my mind for alot of us in E MA because that would warm the BL the most and have QPF max over GC/WCT /SNY . but others have said a stronger ULL could lead to a later caputure and further east track....so i guess it would depend on 1. track of said coastal (N or NNE) and 2. where mid level low closes off over coastal. but i really don't know if this makes sense messenger....perhaps you could make sense of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah 10-16 may have been more prudent but I think if we can get into the ccb we are going to rip some incredible rates. Mid level low track perfect for us. We shall see. yeah we were talking about it in the thread earlier. whoever gets into the heavy banding is gonna have true white-out conditions for a time...3-4"/hr stuff easily! Just hope the Euro and GFS are wrong about keeping the heaviest stuff farther east. I may be wrong...but I feel like the tend to under-do precip amounts on the western edge of the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NH That's higher than any other model, I do believe... Interesting. Thanks for the hookup . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Too early in the day. Some would be wasted in an hour......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 still a lot of guidance pointing toward a bit of hang-back/comma head precip across a good chunk of E MA Do you mean that it changes back in time for us? I'm thinking front end rain then dryslot then nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Compare the 18z 0h RUC along with the water vapor to the 12z 6h NAM. Nam had a tough time pinning down the vorticity yet again. How's it mesh with the GFS/EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How's it mesh with the GFS/EC? I was looking at it, and it seems more amped than the GFS, but not quite as amped as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I may have missed it earlier but what did the crazy uncle do at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Do you mean that it changes back in time for us? I'm thinking front end rain then dryslot then nothing. it's definitely tougher the further SE you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I may have missed it earlier but what did the crazy uncle do at 12z? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/UKMET_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I may have missed it earlier but what did the crazy uncle do at 12z? pretty hefty dump for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I may have missed it earlier but what did the crazy uncle do at 12z? It was the furthest E of the 12z guidance. Solid hit for E areas and big hit for SE MA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/UKMET_12z/ukloop.html Thanks Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It was the furthest E of the 12z guidance. Solid hit for E areas and big hit for SE MA.. Thanks Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 pretty hefty dump for eastern areas. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 pretty hefty dump for eastern areas. yes but look where it has the low a few hours from now....i.e the low is tucked close to Nc coast and uncle ukie takes it almost NE (from where it is now) in the short term .....that doesn't appear feasible from anything i've read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thank you you're welcome. no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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