Major Hurricane Isaias

[MattPetrulli]

Just now, Interstate said:

Wrong... when they say 105 MPH per hour... that means sustained... and there is no way any place over land will see those kinds of winds

 

Not really. It's a measurement taken over water, friction reduces the higher sustained winds as it comes on land. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Interstate said:

Wrong... when they say 105 MPH per hour... that means sustained... and there is no way any place over land will see those kinds of winds

 

Yeah that’s my point. Those offshore sustained winds rarely get measured onshore. Idk why people here think those NHC operational winds will tear through the landfall zone. The gusts imo tell the story. They’re legit. 

[Interstate]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Max winds at 105 looks about right given onshore obs and gusts. Y’all do this every hurricane lol. 

We also know that the NHC never drops the wind speeds like the should on a hurricane that has moved over land... they only decrease it like 5 or 10 MPH at each advisory.

[Interstate]

The product says it all

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

The product says it all

Is this your first hurricane landfall?

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

The thing is the models shows the thing getting ripped apart clearly, the primary HU models as well (HAFS) Why wouldn't you think that w/ the shear increasing to 40 kt and that much dry air present? 

There have been other cases like Isaias,, but also cases where unexpected rapid weakening occurs as well (Katrina and LIli are prime examples).  So you can't fault ppl for driving the point home.  We have a strong baroclinic situation here, so one wouldn't just ignore than.

I would not say rapid intensification not long before landfall used to be definite rarity.  That is recency bias largely.  Since 1995, we have been in an active phase of the AMO for favorable Atlantic TC activity.  Also, we are much better in determining absolute intensity now, esp. for the stronger HUs b/c of things like the GPS dropsonde, which did not come into use until 1998, and the SFMR, which did not exist on recons until 2004.  This advancement in tech has allowed us to diagnose *much* better extreme winds that we could not directly measure before.  Prior, it was largely just FL winds at 700 mb, but that serves only as a proxy and does not work all the time. So in recent decades we are seeing things we never could detect before, but were always there.

Also, and this is a biggie, through the 1960s, if a hurricane was thought be 100 kt or stronger, many recons wouyld not penetrate the eyewall and get into the eye for direct measurements.  They would fly only as close enough to get a solid radar scan of the eye, and then turn away.  So many HUs were underestimated by 1 or even 2 categories at times in the first decades of the recon era!

Because

Things don’t always work like a model showing 40k shear ripping things apart . So I look at what’s been  happening last 25 year that’s different than 25 before that . These storms intensify or hold their own moving onshore or onto land now.  I just don’t remember that from 50’s into 90’s  You mentioned how it can align  some with the shear direction and does not weaken as much .

. 

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Is this your first hurricane landfall?

No it is just the frustation I have with the NHC and their products.

[olafminesaw]

What a difference 8 hours makes 

[Interstate]

Here is a good table for why I do not like the NHC products

 

Hurricane & Landfall Location	Real-Time NHC Landfall Advisory	Highest Validated Land-Based Sustained Wind	The Highest Reporting Land Station
Milton (2024) Siesta Key, FL	120 mph (Category 3)	78 mph	Venice, FL (Mote Marine Laboratory)
Idalia (2023) Keaton Beach, FL	125 mph (Category 3)	81 mph	Keaton Beach, FL (WeatherFlow)
Ian (2022) Cayo Costa, FL	150 mph (Category 4)	98 mph	Cape Coral, FL (WeatherFlow)
Ida (2021) Port Fourchon, LA	150 mph (Category 4)	95 mph	Southwest Pass, LA (Marine Tower)
Laura (2020) Cameron, LA	150 mph (Category 4)	101 mph	Calcasieu Pass, LA (NOS Station)
Michael (2018) Tyndall AFB, FL	160 mph (Category 5)	118 mph	Tyndall Air Force Base, FL
Irma (2017) Cudjoe Key, FL	130 mph (Category 4)	111 mph	Carysfort Reef Light, FL (Marine Tower)
Harvey (2017) Rockport, TX	130 mph (Category 4)	102 mph	Aransas Pass, TX (NOS Station)
Ike (2008) Galveston, TX	110 mph (Category 2)	86 mph	Crabbs Prairie, TX

[Interstate]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

What a difference 8 hours makes 

This exactly what the models depicted... good for them.

[GaWx]

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
900 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IMPACTING THE GULF COAST AS 
DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND...
...900 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

NWS Doppler Radar data and surface observations indicate that 
Hurricane Isaias now has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (160 
km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 978 mb (28.88 
inches).

A NOAA National Ocean Service station in Panama City Beach, Florida, 
recently reported a wind gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) and a sustained 
wind of 72 mph (116 km/h).

This will be the final hourly position update for Isaias. The next 
full forecast advisory for Isaias will be issued at 1000 PM CDT 
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 86.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Here is a good table for why I do not like the NHC products

 

Hurricane & Landfall Location	Real-Time NHC Landfall Advisory	Highest Validated Land-Based Sustained Wind	The Highest Reporting Land Station
Milton (2024) Siesta Key, FL	120 mph (Category 3)	78 mph	Venice, FL (Mote Marine Laboratory)
Idalia (2023) Keaton Beach, FL	125 mph (Category 3)	81 mph	Keaton Beach, FL (WeatherFlow)
Ian (2022) Cayo Costa, FL	150 mph (Category 4)	98 mph	Cape Coral, FL (WeatherFlow)
Ida (2021) Port Fourchon, LA	150 mph (Category 4)	95 mph	Southwest Pass, LA (Marine Tower)
Laura (2020) Cameron, LA	150 mph (Category 4)	101 mph	Calcasieu Pass, LA (NOS Station)
Michael (2018) Tyndall AFB, FL	160 mph (Category 5)	118 mph	Tyndall Air Force Base, FL
Irma (2017) Cudjoe Key, FL	130 mph (Category 4)	111 mph	Carysfort Reef Light, FL (Marine Tower)
Harvey (2017) Rockport, TX	130 mph (Category 4)	102 mph	Aransas Pass, TX (NOS Station)
Ike (2008) Galveston, TX	110 mph (Category 2)	86 mph	Crabbs Prairie, TX

Some of those had anny’s fail though. Or, may have not captured the real core winds that can be small scale.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

What a difference 8 hours makes 

two? weeks earlier, this is probably a strong hurricane making landfall

[mob1]

Pretty impressive  actually, not sure what some of you expected. 

[CoastalWx]

Ian 98 lol. Thats laughable.

[Interstate]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

two? weeks earlier, this is probably a strong hurricane making landfall

Why?  The shear would still have done the same thing?  Shear is Shear

[Chinook]

gust to 83mph at buoy PCBF1 near Panama City Beach FL

[MattPetrulli]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Here is a good table for why I do not like the NHC products

 

Hurricane & Landfall Location	Real-Time NHC Landfall Advisory	Highest Validated Land-Based Sustained Wind	The Highest Reporting Land Station
Milton (2024) Siesta Key, FL	120 mph (Category 3)	78 mph	Venice, FL (Mote Marine Laboratory)
Idalia (2023) Keaton Beach, FL	125 mph (Category 3)	81 mph	Keaton Beach, FL (WeatherFlow)
Ian (2022) Cayo Costa, FL	150 mph (Category 4)	98 mph	Cape Coral, FL (WeatherFlow)
Ida (2021) Port Fourchon, LA	150 mph (Category 4)	95 mph	Southwest Pass, LA (Marine Tower)
Laura (2020) Cameron, LA	150 mph (Category 4)	101 mph	Calcasieu Pass, LA (NOS Station)
Michael (2018) Tyndall AFB, FL	160 mph (Category 5)	118 mph	Tyndall Air Force Base, FL
Irma (2017) Cudjoe Key, FL	130 mph (Category 4)	111 mph	Carysfort Reef Light, FL (Marine Tower)
Harvey (2017) Rockport, TX	130 mph (Category 4)	102 mph	Aransas Pass, TX (NOS Station)
Ike (2008) Galveston, TX	110 mph (Category 2)	86 mph	Crabbs Prairie, TX

A- Not all METARs are indestructible

B- Like what was said earlier, METARs don't always capture the true core of a hurricane

C- Wind damage from these of storms beg to differ and provide evidence of higher windspeeds I.E Laura

D- Like I said earlier, "sustained" winds are a measure over water and are reduced by friction. 

[mob1]

Radar velocities still show some 100 mph winds just off the deck for areas just inland

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

A- Not all METARs are indestructible

B- Like what was said earlier, METARs don't always capture the true core of a hurricane

C- Wind damage from these of storms beg to differ and provide evidence of higher windspeeds I.E Laura

D- Like I said earlier, "sustained" winds are a measure over water and are reduced by friction. 

I mean 98 for Ian?  

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Radar velocities still show some 100 mph winds just off the deck for areas just inland

Odd placement, given LP positioning, but its likely a sting jet pumping out those impressive numbers on the west side.

[MattPetrulli]

Milton Florida just recorded 75 MPH sustained gusting to 105 MPH

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Pretty impressive  actually, not sure what some of you expected. 

same city that got like 12 inches of snow two winters ago 

[MattPetrulli]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean 98 for Ian?  

Ngl it was pretty clear off live feeds alone at the very least that Ian, Ida, and Michael in addition to Laura had higher sustained speeds than what reports said. 

[CoastalWx]

Those winds near PNS are from the second wind max there. Really interesting feature. 

[OHweather]

26 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Here is a good table for why I do not like the NHC products

 

Hurricane & Landfall Location	Real-Time NHC Landfall Advisory	Highest Validated Land-Based Sustained Wind	The Highest Reporting Land Station
Milton (2024) Siesta Key, FL	120 mph (Category 3)	78 mph	Venice, FL (Mote Marine Laboratory)
Idalia (2023) Keaton Beach, FL	125 mph (Category 3)	81 mph	Keaton Beach, FL (WeatherFlow)
Ian (2022) Cayo Costa, FL	150 mph (Category 4)	98 mph	Cape Coral, FL (WeatherFlow)
Ida (2021) Port Fourchon, LA	150 mph (Category 4)	95 mph	Southwest Pass, LA (Marine Tower)
Laura (2020) Cameron, LA	150 mph (Category 4)	101 mph	Calcasieu Pass, LA (NOS Station)
Michael (2018) Tyndall AFB, FL	160 mph (Category 5)	118 mph	Tyndall Air Force Base, FL
Irma (2017) Cudjoe Key, FL	130 mph (Category 4)	111 mph	Carysfort Reef Light, FL (Marine Tower)
Harvey (2017) Rockport, TX	130 mph (Category 4)	102 mph	Aransas Pass, TX (NOS Station)
Ike (2008) Galveston, TX	110 mph (Category 2)	86 mph	Crabbs Prairie, TX

By definition the “maximum sustained wind” is going to occur over a very small area and is always going to be over water. This table literally proves nothing. 

[cardinalland]

[MattPetrulli]

Just now, cardinalland said:

Curious about surge heights between Miramar and PCB. There has been no reports from those locations and I imagine that is where surge peaked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder if I hit my max surge mark of 10'? Killed it on LF locale and intensity. ...should be a quick post-mortem.

[OHweather]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those winds near PNS are from the second wind max there. Really interesting feature. 

If you squint, maybe some sting jet type processes going on?