October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[tiger_deF]

24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Please elaborate a bit…please. 

At least from my amateur perspective it spends more time over water while close to the coast and is slightly more amped up pressure and rainfall-wise despite being further south

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

At least from my amateur perspective it spends more time over water while close to the coast and is slightly more amped up pressure and rainfall-wise despite being further south, 

Thank you Tiger.  Appreciate it. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Thank you Tiger.  Appreciate it. 

Sorry, was busy. 
 

Yeah comes north a bit more than euro before peeling west which is better gradient from CT to here.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Sorry, was busy. 
 

Yeah comes north a bit more than euro before peeling west which is better gradient from CT to here.

I get it…no worries Scott. What did the rain amounts look like? 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I get it…no worries Scott. What did the rain amounts look like? 

2-3” there

[Great Snow 1717]

The panic us real and it is spectacular...

[mitchnick]

N.C. feeling it already.

https://surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/

[tiger_deF]

Contentwxguy (formerly cranky) has been doing some great nowcasting for any interested 

 

https://x.com/contentwxguy?s=21

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

N.C. feeling it already.

https://surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/

That cam just died. Lol

Here's Kitty Hawk, NC up the beach a few miles..

https://surfchex.com/cams/kitty-hawk-nc/

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro further north and a bit weaker this run

[ineedsnow]

[Masswx]

Looks like less tropical characteristics on euro 

[CoastalWx]

This is tough to resolve on guidance.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is tough to resolve on guidance.

hopefully by 12z tomorrow we know

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks beast 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is tough to resolve on guidance.

Lately, when isn’t a coastal tough to resolve? 

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lately, when isn’t a coastal tough to resolve? 

Well in this case there’s a ton going on. System with tropical characteristics within and upper level low.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well in this case there’s a ton going on. System with tropical characteristics within and upper level low.

There’s always a ton going on….I swear we say this with every single coastal.  But ok. 

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I must commend you on your model posting. You have a good feel for what to post and when to post it. Never an overload of 47 different models and past runs. You rarely leave folks hanging with "wow the 18z" and don't post it. Job well done. Saves me from having to get off my fat ass and clicking buttons. Appreciated!

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There’s always a ton going on….I swear we say this with every single coastal.  But ok. 

Well you are right, cyclogenesis is complicated by nature. But when the stakes are high, it makes it seem more complicated then it is. If that makes sense.

[UnitedWx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well in this case there’s a ton going on. System with tropical characteristics within and upper level low.

Is there really that much tropical semblance here? Not doubting you... I just thought the upper air maps looked like kind of strictly beast mode noreaster

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Is there really that much tropical semblance here? Not doubting you... I just thought the upper air maps looked like kind of strictly beast mode noreaster

I don’t think it will get convection near the center type deal. It will have some tropical characteristics, but this is more of a hybrid transitioning to a more classic nor’easter. These happen right into October. It’s unusual though to have something like this so early. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think it will get convection near the center type deal. It will have some tropical characteristics, but this is more of a hybrid transitioning to a more classic nor’easter. These happen right into October. It’s unusual though to have something like this so early. 

And with a high pressure of that magnitude also…that’s highly anomalous too in September. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

upton too, although I think their 4pm update will be stronger.

 

[DirtySnowDen]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

nope but it has maintained its solution for a couple runs now.

It’s picking-up on its convective nature to wrap-in. A LIS or RI special, while the Globals are tuned differently…. You take the middle road at this timeframe.

[DirtySnowDen]

Mother Nature has a sense of humor, and I’m pretty sure she is trying to tell a joke to Humanity.

[tiger_deF]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There’s always a ton going on….I swear we say this with every single coastal.  But ok. 

The fact that there's a hook and a day or more of slow movement complicates things. Some coastal, including some of our more notable storms (and tropical systems) we've gotten have been straight thumps that pas through quickly, where the main concern is shifts left and right. 

But here, for this system, there's huge model variation (for being a couple of days away) in the time and location of when (or if) it will make landfall all based on potential loops, stalls, and intensity.

[CoastalWx]

OKX should have a high wind warning for LI and maybe even srn CT. JMHO.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

OKX should have a high wind warning for LI and maybe even srn CT. JMHO.

River East should really have one based on guidance . Watch not warning