October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, DirtySnowDen said:

This is “The Perfect Storm”…..all major models show the eye developing at the 250mb level. Also, considering the tilted nature of its development, it will be a busy day later today. You have a strong tropical Burp crashing into a strong high that splits. With the full moon, this has distaster written all over it for CT, RI and southeastern MA.
 

I’m hungry and I hope I get to eat my words.

We all agree with you and your dirty talk. 

[Damage In Tolland]

59 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

No, the biggest question is if NHC will ever acknowledge this thing as potential ST or T transition and name it operationally if it does what some models are showing!
 

This is a big , big boy. We’ve all got a beast about to blow!

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a big , big boy. We’ve all got a beast about to blow!

Stein gives it the big Meh. Minor nuisance and breezy.

 

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a big , big boy. We’ve all got a beast about to blow!

Are you in a rest area stall on I84?

[Chrisrotary12]

9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here it comes . Keep ramping her up . Can see that dead zone in E Ma up into S NH in lowland downslope 

Very accurate for ASH

[dendrite]

Classic GFS cave overnight.

Our soon-to-be future, RRFS, almost brings it onshore the Delmarva. 

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Are you in a rest area stall on I84?

Tap tap.. tap tap tap

[WinterWolf]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a big , big boy. We’ve all got a beast about to blow!

Well this is starting to look a little more significant overnight now..with possible ST or T transitioning.  That can bring the wind here for sure. We’ll see how it goes today and tomorrow.

[WinterWolf]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude trust me. Scotty knows 

Yes, I was being funny.
 

 But let me ask you this, Vortex95 has been talking about ST or even T for a couple days now…even when modeling wasn’t showing that at all.   I didn’t see you mention any of that?  Why is that?  Was he seeing something you weren’t?   

[jbenedet]

I don’t think sub 990 mb mslp happens south of 40N in late September unless there is a tropical aspect to the system.

Baroclinicity alone isn’t sufficient for that level of deepening.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, I was being funny.
 

 But let me ask you this, Vortex95 has been talking about ST or even T for a couple days now…even when modeling wasn’t showing that at all.   I didn’t see you mention any of that?  Why is that?  Was he seeing something you weren’t?   

I think I did mention that a couple days ago in a post. But honestly to me that doesn’t matter in terms of sensible Weather. I’m just trying to figure out where the storm is going and what the winds and rain will be. It may briefly attain tropical characteristics, but once it gets towards 40 north, it’ll definitely become more subtropical.

[CoastalWx]

It’s possible the storm might try to move west twice. Once late tonight and tomorrow, and then it moves kind of northeast and then starts moving north then Northwest south of Block Island. But that angle of approach will matter. The other question I have is the rain squalls. There definitely might be some squally rains with this models aren’t really all in agreement in terms of how much but it should be a good drink across most of southern New England.

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well this is starting to look a little more significant overnight now..with possible ST or T transitioning.  That can bring the wind here for sure. We’ll see how it goes today and tomorrow.

Get the genny ready, and don’t park the truck near any trees 

[SnoSki14]

If the storm goes south of LI and towards Jersey then it will most certainly have a tropical component 

[CoastalWx]

6z euro op is real nasty here. 6z AI about the same as 00z. Euro op continues to flop around.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

6z euro op is real nasty here. 6z AI about the same as 00z. Euro op continues to flop around.

Like dongs ?

[weatherwiz]

do vertical cross sections not work on TT anymore? 

EDIT: working, had to refresh the page several times

[weatherwiz]

That is a heck of a mlvl warm front that will be draped within the region with PWAT values > 1.50". The rain is going to be nuts. There is bound to be significant flooding somewhere. Some areas could probably get 6-10"+ but really need to wait and narrow down the mesoscale details better 

[ineedsnow]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Get the genny ready, and don’t park the truck near any trees 

Lets tear down some forest!

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Lets tear down some forest!

Absolutely. Talking full blow downs . Firewood guys need the work !

[jlauderdal]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Get the genny ready, and don’t park the truck near any trees 

Falling trees might staisfy some people in this sub, 2 weeks ago it was all doom and gloom.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Get the genny ready, and don’t park the truck near any trees 

Yup…was just thinking about the parking thing.  

[WinterWolf]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro op is real nasty here. 6z AI about the same as 00z. Euro op continues to flop around.

Whats the track on the 6z Euro Op? 

[weatherwiz]

The wind aspect inland is still quite challenging. Coast should gust 50-60+ mph but inland its a bit more complicated (as always). Winds not far off the deck are quite strong and even if inverted a bit, it might not take much to bring some stronger gusts down. One potential thing to watch though is when the core of the strongest LLJ arrives...very possible this happen overnight which will make it a bit more difficult to tap into it. But if we can sustained a period of 50-60+ gusts inland there certainly will be some issues

[WinterWolf]

The weather channel app on my phone showing over 4” of rain here now. Was showing 2.5” previously.   That’s a lot of rain. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

Falling trees might staisfy some people in this sub, 2 weeks ago it was all doom and gloom.

We all so deserve a true tempest like this with all of the boredom and no active weather over the last few years . 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The weather channel app on my phone showing over 4” of rain here now. Was showing 2.5” previously.   That’s a lot of rain. 

If that 6-10 inch rainfall area on the GFS And RGEM verifies we're going to have some serious issues-ground is saturated here from all the prior rains

[weatherwiz]

6z Euro definitely an issue with winds, particularly for the coast

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If that 6-10 inch rainfall area on the GFS And RGEM verifies we're going to have some serious issues-ground is saturated here from all the prior rains

Yes sir…you’ve really been swamped down that way…and we’ve been very soaked up this way too(although not as bad as your area), so this rain coming if it gets excessive will cause problems.  As you said…ground is saturated here too. 

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The weather channel app on my phone showing over 4” of rain here now. Was showing 2.5” previously.   That’s a lot of rain. 

Page hits...give it a few more hours and they will have Jim Cantore interviewing Noah with the ark in the background...