Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[tamarack]

52 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

This coming Monday marks 30 years since MWN's windiest met summer day - the 24-hour average was 99 mph, IIRC.  Friends were getting married at our (then) church in South Gardiner, with an outdoor reception under a large tent, and the wind would work the 4-foot "pins" upward such that we had to monitor them while carrying sledge hammers.

[Typhoon Tip]

Pretty clearly a circulation formulating west of Sarasota

[Cyclone-68]

Since eastern Canada seems to regularly get plenty of convection, wouldn’t the smoke act as a deterrent there as well?

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Since eastern Canada seems to regularly get plenty of convection, wouldn’t the smoke act as a deterrent there as well?

Understanding smokes impact on convective potential is extremely complicated. If you're talking about convective potential which is extremely dependent on instability, then smoke is going to have a large negative impact on convective potential because its going to inhibit the convective temperature from being reached and of course lead to a reduction in instability. If you have a setup though in which forcing and dynamics are strong and you don't have to rely on large CAPE, smoke is probably not going to inhibit convection from developing (but of course may negatively impact strength). 

In the case of what happened across western Maine the other day, you already had capping in place from a stout EML so the dense smoke further enhanced capping and of course prevented convective temperature from being reached. Forcing for any afternoon storm development was always weak, which also increased tornado potential. 

So adding smoke into things just add another level of complexity but the impact of smoke on potential is going to vary based on the mechanisms involved in convective development. 

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty clearly a circulation formulating west of Sarasota

After dropping the signal briefly, AI ensembles in particular are a little more bullish on some development.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

After dropping the signal briefly, AI ensembles in particular are a little more bullish on some development.

Certainly may be a brief window for something to become a bit organized before shear increases some

[Cyclone-68]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Understanding smokes impact on convective potential is extremely complicated. If you're talking about convective potential which is extremely dependent on instability, then smoke is going to have a large negative impact on convective potential because its going to inhibit the convective temperature from being reached and of course lead to a reduction in instability. If you have a setup though in which forcing and dynamics are strong and you don't have to rely on large CAPE, smoke is probably not going to inhibit convection from developing (but of course may negatively impact strength). 

In the case of what happened across western Maine the other day, you already had capping in place from a stout EML so the dense smoke further enhanced capping and of course prevented convective temperature from being reached. Forcing for any afternoon storm development was always weak, which also increased tornado potential. 

So adding smoke into things just add another level of complexity but the impact of smoke on potential is going to vary based on the mechanisms involved in convective development. 

This actually helps a lay person like myself understand this. Thank you!

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

38° at SLK

28 @ the fake hollow in CT (probably)

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly may be a brief window for something to become a bit organized before shear increases some

Just have to stay offshore. Needs to get suppressed in the Gulf rather than dragged back into FL like some models try. 

Also--just looked at the 12z NAM for tomorrow. Active day ahead?

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just have to stay offshore. Needs to get suppressed in the Gulf rather than dragged back into FL like some models try. 

Also--just looked at the 12z NAM for tomorrow. Active day ahead?

Should be. Overall best severe threat will be off to the west but should still see some localized wind threat across the region during the evening. 

[kdxken]

Hot weather messing with lift. Needed 5 folks to give up their seats. Still had to burn fuel on tarmac before takeoff.

[Torch Tiger]

Wednesday could be interesting timing-dependent and if we get some breaks

[Go Kart Mozart]

25 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hot weather messing with lift. Needed 5 folks to give up their seats. Still had to burn fuel on tarmac before takeoff.

Do they go down the aisle and select fatties?

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

28 @ the fake hollow in CT (probably)

 

[Cyclone-68]

Is it my imagination or does BOX update their forecasts less often than they did? Still a 7am discussion in there 

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

This coming Monday marks 30 years since MWN's windiest met summer day - the 24-hour average was 99 mph, IIRC.  Friends were getting married at our (then) church in South Gardiner, with an outdoor reception under a large tent, and the wind would work the 4-foot "pins" upward such that we had to monitor them while carrying sledge hammers.

134kt is pretty good for 7/20. A little snow and sleet mixed in too.

KMWN 200458Z 28071G95KT 0SM -SHRA FG VV000 03/03
KMWN 200552Z 27067G78KT 0SM FG VV000 03/03 RMK SHRAB15E40 DZE40
KMWN 200652Z 28082G92KT 0SM -DZ FG VV000 02/02 RMK DZB30
KMWN 200759Z 28076G103KT 0SM -DZ FG VV000 01/01 RMK PRESFR
KMWN 200955Z 27090G107KT 0SM -DZ FG VV000 02/02
KMWN 201150Z 27093G115KT 0SM -SHRA FG VV000 02/02 RMK SHRAB20
KMWN 201257Z 28099G116KT 0SM -SHRA FG VV000 02/02
KMWN 201355Z 28083G92KT 0SM -SHRA FG VV000 01/01
KMWN 201453Z 27079G95KT 0SM -SHRA FG VV000 01/01
KMWN 201555Z 27076G97KT 0SM -SHRA FG VV000
KMWN 201650Z 26076G104KT 0SM -SHRADZ FG VV000 01/01 RMK DZB30
KMWN 201750Z 27086G107KT 0SM SHRASN FG VV000 01/01 RMK DZE15 PEB15 SNB20 PEE45
KMWN 201854Z 27095G111 0SM -SHRASN FG VV000 01/01
KMWN 201952Z 280106G125KT 0SM -SHRASN FG VV000 02/02
KMWN 202052Z 280101G124KT 0SM SHRA FG VV000 02/02 RMK SNEPEB10PEE30 PK WND 280134/32
KMWN 202202Z 280103G126KT 0SM -SHRA FG VV000 02/02
KMWN 202250Z 28088G120KT 0SM SHRA FG VV000 02/02
KMWN 202345Z 28088G126KT 0SM SHRAPE FG VV000 02/02 RMK SHPEB40
KMWN 210050Z 28083G115KT 0SM SHRA FG VV000 02/02 RMK SHPEE35
KMWN 210055Z 29039G52KT 0SM FG VV000 05/05
KMWN 210155Z 30034G39KT 0SM FG VV000 06/06
KMWN 210251Z 28090G115KT 0SM 02/02 RMK T00200020
KMWN 210255Z 30039G54KT 0SM FG VV000 05/05
KMWN 210354Z 32034G43KT 100SM FEW/// SCT003 SCT030 05/05 RMK TPS LWR SCT055 W T00540045
KMWN 210459Z 32028G36KT 100SM FEW/// SCT003 SCT030 05/05 RMK TPS LWR FEW055 W T00540045

[moneypitmike]

Sounds like I might not need to water our new plantings tomorrow.  Glass half full.

[ineedsnow]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty clearly a circulation formulating west of Sarasota

Looking even better now

[Ginx snewx]

As Ditty likes to say. "Finally some COC"

[kdxken]

35 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Do they go down the aisle and select fatties?

I would.  Actually they were offering a thousand, hotel and transportation  and flight out tomorrow. I almost bit

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I would.  Actually they were offering a thousand, hotel and transportation  and flight out tomorrow. I almost bit

I love those offers

[kdxken]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love those offers

Ratcheted up quickly. $500 dollar voucher was the initial offer.

[kdxken]

Stuck in a holding pattern. NY airspace closed. Probably some douch bag's son is late for a golf lesson.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

84/47  ...

lot of mid 40s dps.   Our source tomorrow is behind a warm boundary smearing through circa 10am to 2 ... after which we sector wedge 88/72's like lower Michigan - maybe.  

Getting from here to there seems like a warm over instability op tonight.

[Brewbeer]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

84/47  ...

lot of mid 40s dps

it's glorious out there right now. 

heading to Brimfield tomorrow for an antique sweat fest turned wash out no doubt  

[Cyclone-68]

17 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

it's glorious out there right now. 

heading to Brimfield tomorrow for an antique sweat fest turned wash out no doubt  

Is the 2011 tornado damage still visible across the street in the woods?

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Do they go down the aisle and select fatties?

I was on a Lufthansa regional flight once from London to Munich… There had been a body-building competition and there were like a dozen absolutely massive human beings on the flight (all eating their Tupperware's of chicken and rice).  They actually had to walk up and down the plane and redistribute the body builders throughout the plane before we could leave the gate.

My buddy was like, dude, if we are so close to a limit that this airline official is walking the rows with a calculator and getting 300+ pound dudes to swap seats with petite women to even out the plane’s weight… like if that dude sits in 3A, this plane won’t get off the ground but if he’s in 36D we take flight… WTF, lol.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is the 2011 tornado damage still visible across the street in the woods?

Not as visible the last couple of years but you can still see traces.

[wxeyeNH]

It was nice to have the clean air today.  It will be interesting to see how much smoke comes back tomorrow and how it interacts with the convection potential over the northeast tomorrow.  Maybe it's a good lesson for future modeling.   Not to get into politics but I just saw that Trump is threatening Canada with tariffs to get it's s..t together.  Perhaps climate changer deniers have more to do with it than vast boral forest management?