July 2026

[MANDA]

27 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Still a little bit of low level smoke, but skies are much clearer overall. It's great seeing the sun again!

HRRR brings some smoke back in later tonight with the sea breeze. Looks pretty clear by Sunday 

Yeah.  Main smoke plume is shifting southward today.  Actually fairly clear up here in NWNJ right now with only some haze to the south and clear blue skies to the NW.

[Brian5671]

Some models have very little rain tomorrow.   Doesn't look like an all day washout

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Some models have very little rain tomorrow.   Doesn't look like an all day washout

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

[forkyfork]

looking forward to the soot rain tomorrow morning. i love climate change

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC needs to pick up 2.77” by the end of July to have their first average to above precipitation month since May 2025.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLM&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026	2.70	2.60	3.60	2.48	3.05	3.39	1.83	M	M	M	M	M	19.65
2025	0.61	2.60	5.52	3.25	6.58	2.46	4.03	2.21	2.76	4.08	2.09	3.38	39.57
2024	5.28	2.05	9.06	3.47	4.11	1.71	4.20	7.02	1.58	0.01	3.35	4.53	46.37

I suppose we were due for this. Over the past 50 or 60 years precipitation has increased quite a bit. That 46 inches in 2024 would have been above normal some 50 years ago.

[IrishRob17]

Satellite shows the smoke has pushed south but it’s deceiving, still lots of lingering ground level smoke easily seen when outside. 

[rclab]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looking forward to the soot rain tomorrow morning. i love climate change

Forky please keep SPF 100 handy in case of unexpected clearing. As always …..

 

[SnowGoose69]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening.  

[winterwx21]

49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening.  

I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

It'll be interesting to see if HRRR and NAM3km are correct about our area getting hit hard during the morning. I would think afternoon/evening is more likely, but we shall see. 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right. 

Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen.  Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability

[guinness77]

I’m in Babylon right now but the skies seem much bluer today than yesterday and the sun is actually present and normal. I’m heading to Queens now but the smell and feel in my chest is completely gone (for now). Don’t know if it’ll be worse in Jamaica. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

7 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I’m in Babylon right now but the skies seem much bluer today than yesterday and the sun is actually present and normal. I’m heading to Queens now but the smell and feel in my chest is completely gone (for now). Don’t know if it’ll be worse in Jamaica. 

Yup 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

I suppose we were due for this. Over the past 50 or 60 years precipitation has increased quite a bit. That 46 inches in 2024 would have been above normal some 50 years ago.

We began to dry out shortly after the super El Nino in 2023-2024 during the fall. The warmer climate requires more water than 50 years ago due to increased evaporation rates.

One of the areas that needs more research are these expanding 500mb ridges that get stuck in place for weeks to months. So we get regions with record drought under the ridges which are bounded by record flooding like we are currently seeing in Texas. 

The more erratic precipitation patterns are a real challenge for the agricultural and landscaping fields. Since long range precipitation forecasts beyond a week or two aren’t the greatest. Trying to figure out where your local area will end up between the wet and dry extremes isn’t the easiest to navigate.

[steve392]

Had blue skies at home today. No smell if smoke but still hazey.  Driving down turnpike you can almost see the cutoff from heavy smoke to light haze by Middlesex County area.  

[guinness77]

18 hours ago, guinness77 said:

I’m on west end of tracks 1 and 2 in Jamaica and the pics really aren’t doing it justice.  Obvious smoke in the air, an overt campfire smell, you can feel it in your chest. Lots of people masking up. It’s feeling pretty post-apocalyptic here. 

Same location about 19 hours later. Much bluer in the sky, a little haze with little humidity so it probably is a little smoke but no ill feeling in my chest and there’s a very distinct smell of a bit of smoke. But, much much better than yesterday early evening. 

[SACRUS]

87 here  much clearer  as smoke south

 

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen.  Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability

Strong shear, lapse rates and high dews could counteract the lack of sun here especially with the fronts being nearby.  

[Stormlover74]

Flood watch issued for most..city on west 

[Stormlover74]

Enhanced severe risk as well

[TJW014]

Big time boom or bust potential tomorrow. It all hinges on how fast can we clear out after the warm front lifts through

[SACRUS]

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. Some of the thunderstorms could bring flooding downpours and strong winds. The greatest risk is tomorrow night and Sunday. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through the middle of next week.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -27.09 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.683 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.0° (0.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[redsox91]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

 ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
   An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday from parts of the
   Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, as
   scattered to widespread storms move through an increasingly
   favorable environment. A 45% wind area has been added, resulting in
   a categorical upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk. The Enhanced Risk
   area is a combination of multiple regimes which may eventually
   overlap, with some areas potentially seeing multiple rounds of
   strong to severe storms.  

   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
   northern Great Lakes vicinity through the day, before approaching
   New England by evening. In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a
   deepening surface low is expected to move across southern Quebec
   toward northern Maine, as a trailing cold front moves through the
   Great Lakes and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
   A remnant surface front initially draped from southern NJ into
   western PA will lift northeastward as an effective warm front, in
   advance of the surface low and cold front. 

   As strengthening deep-layer wind fields overspread increasingly rich
   moisture, a broad region from the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes
   into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast will become
   supportive of organized convection and severe-thunderstorm
   potential. HRRR-based forecasts suggest that smoke will become less
   prominent from west to east by afternoon, which should allow for
   relatively strong diurnal heating and moderate destabilization in
   areas not affected by early-day convection. Effective shear of 35-45
   kt will support organized clusters and possibly occasional
   supercells from the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic
   and Northeast, while strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates
   will result in a favorable wind-damage environment within the
   somewhat weaker flow regime across the southern Mid-Atlantic and
   parts of the Carolinas.  

   Elevated convection may be ongoing or else develop during the
   morning across parts of PA/NY, within a warm-advection regime
   associated with the returning warm front. Depending on the timing of
   this convection and downstream heating/destabilization, some
   intensification of ongoing convection may occur by early afternoon.
   Additional development may occur along the southwest flank of
   early-day convection and related outflow, which may intensify and
   move across the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. In
   addition to a wind-damage threat, some hail and tornado potential
   may also evolve with any supercell development, given the presence
   of favorable effective SRH. 

   Farther north, a broken band of storms is expected to develop along
   the cold front and move across the Lower Great Lakes region,
   eventually reaching a larger part of OH/PA/NY by late afternoon or
   early evening. Additional storms may develop ahead of the frontal
   convection, depending on the extent of heating in the wake of
   early-day storms. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany this
   convection, along with some potential for isolated hail. Rich
   moisture and some enhancement to low-level SRH may also support a
   tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially
   near the effective warm frontal zone or any remnant outflow
   boundaries from morning convection. 

   An initially separate regime of storm development and severe
   potential is expected to develop along/east of a surface trough
   across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC. While deep-layer
   flow will tend to weaken with somewhat southward extent, strong
   heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates will provide a
   favorable thermodynamic environment for downbursts and damaging
   outflow winds. 

   Depending on the extent of outflow from prefrontal storms, frontal
   convection may continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat
   through the evening as it spreads southeastward. 

 

Storm Prediction Center Jul 17, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Satellite shows the smoke has pushed south but it’s deceiving, still lots of lingering ground level smoke easily seen when outside. 

Close to zero here to your south

[IrishRob17]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Close to zero here to your south

The ground smoke mixed out here hours ago too.