Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    19,049
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    Damisa
    Newest Member
    Damisa
    Joined

2026 4th of July Heatwave


 Share

Recommended Posts

It is looking like the Midwest is in store for a prolonged and impactful heatwave through at least next week into the Independence Day weekend. The point forecast for Madison has 90s everyday from Monday on, with 70s if not mid to upper 70s for lows. It is currently cooler right now than it will be at the coolest part of the night after Monday. Models have been consistently showing the heatwave continuing into the extended range. While forecast highs don't look record high as of this juncture, the length of the heatwave coinciding with the holiday week could lead to higher impacts, as outlined by the WPC.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It reminds me of the one the models all had earlier this month. The models and the forecast had several days in the mid 90s here just a few days before and we ended up in the low 80s with some of those days in the 70s. That was actually a huge heat bust. Let's see if this one comes to fruition. 

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Looks like a typical stretch of summer heat to me.   Seems when it comes to weather we’ve lowered the bar on what constitutes extreme.

I very much doubt the extreme highs currently forecasted will variety with the lack of antecedent drought conditions.

But *IF* the duration actually ends up on par with what some of the models have hinted at, it would be the most extensive and lengthy heat wave for the sub since 2012. It's unlikely though, especially with the NAO trending negative (backdoor cold fronts). There's a reasonable chance things will break by the weekend...

  • Like 1
  • sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, frostfern said:

Monday might be a high temp bust for my area if we get storms or storm outflow tonight.  Could use any rain at this point though, and Tuesday and Wednesday will not bust.

Yeah. Anywhere east of Lake Michigan has bust potential tomorrow. At the very least there will probably be some dying convection moving through for a cloudy period at some point. Tuesday and Wednesday SHOULD be legit heat but I’m never convinced until I wake up that day and see no convection or debris clouds around. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, buckeye said:

Looks like a typical stretch of summer heat to me.   Seems when it comes to weather we’ve lowered the bar on what constitutes extreme.

Multiple days in the 100s for Philly certainly constitutes as “extreme”, even if not in this sub. Hell even Detroit may see triple digit heat along with a high number of consecutive days well into the 90s. This isn’t a “typical stretch of summer heat” (especially considering this is a pre super nino summer), stop downplaying it.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, buckeye said:

Looks like a typical stretch of summer heat to me.   Seems when it comes to weather we’ve lowered the bar on what constitutes extreme.

Definitely not, especially with so many places that will approach/exceed 100 over a large expanse of the country, with a ridge that is only 594dm. Watch us get a 600dm ridge later in the season, and no it won't be a typical stretch of summer heat then either. 

  • Like 1
  • 100% 2
  • omg 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Definitely not, especially with so many places that will approach/exceed 100 over a large expanse of the country, with a ridge that is only 594dm. Watch us get a 600dm ridge later in the season, and no it won't be a typical stretch of summer heat then either. 

We're unfortunately due for a legit heatwave. We dont get them like we did decades ago when we would frequently multiple per summer. These days we run up departures with warm summer nights.

Hopefully its a one and done deal after this week. Heat looks transient. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We're unfortunately due for a legit heatwave. We dont get them like we did decades ago when we would frequently multiple per summer. These days we run up departures with warm summer nights.

Hopefully its a one and done deal after this week. Heat looks transient. 

This week is going to be on par if not exceeding 2012's heat wave locally, its been 14 years since we have had heat of this magnitude. Nothing typical about this unless you are in Dallas or something. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This week is going to be on par if not exceeding 2012's heat wave locally, its been 14 years since we have had heat of this magnitude. Nothing typical about this unless you are in Dallas or something. 

I didnt say it was typical. Buckeye did lol. I said we were due for a legit heatwave.

This will seem even worse than 2012 because that was a wall to wall hot summer. This has not been.

95F+ days per decade:
1880s- 7
1890s- 16
1900s- 3
1910s- 21
1920s- 12
1930s- 54
1940s- 41
1950s- 36
1960s- 8
1970s- 23
1980s- 23
1990s- 16
2000s- 14
2010s- 31
2020s- 8

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Won't be too impressive out this way.  A string of low to mid 90s which isn't unusual at all.  Dews near 80 will be impressive, but definitely typical for mid Summer in this area.

Your area and others nearby have largely missed out on the most intense summer heat in recent years. Much of that comes down to the large-scale pattern, which has often been influenced by forcing that hasn't favored persistent heat domes or strong upper-level ridges expanding into the central US/Midwest. Meanwhile, both coasts have experienced some of the most significant heat events in history this decade (such as the Pacific Northwest in 2021, the western March heatwave this year, and the upcoming historic heatwave for the East). Even last summer the EC experienced record breaking heat for a time, while we missed out on it. That’s not to say that we haven’t had our fair share of warmth (for many Midwestern cities, 2024 was the warmest year on record after all), but we’ve been lacking these prolonged, extreme, anomalous heat events relatively speaking, especially during summer, and instead have quietly accumulated positive temp departures through sustained, slightly to moderately above normal conditions. For instance, last June is the 6th warmest on record for Chicago, yet the temp only maxed out at 95 that month (and for all of summer).

Those background patterns won't stay the same forever though, and at some point they'll likely shift in a way that's more favorable for extreme heat reaching your area again, including the return of triple-digit temperatures. Then you also have to take into account CC which has severe implications, but won’t go down that rabbit hole.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Always seem to get something on or around the 4th around here. A couple years ago I was at a fireworks show with epic lightning and an approaching storm in the distance and that wasn’t the first time. Wouldn't hate if that happened again. Not looking like that’ll happen on the 4th which I guess is good but seems to happen a lot 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...