Maxim

lol, it’s still summer and the weenies are already starting to lash out. Seethe harder little man, your “colder and snowier” winter which you were wishcasting earlier isn’t happening. The weather and climate don’t revolve around your backyard either.

I hope you’re trolling. Otherwise you’re just mentally challenged if you can’t realize the destruction a +5°c super nino would have on the planet, unless if you’re cool with widespread crop failures, ecosystem damage, major economic destruction, lives being lost etc.

these weirdos think you're using it for some hidden agenda or whatever. That's an unbelievably paranoid line of thinking tbh, like, borderline schizo.

lol no

This decade has been consistently warm so far. 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024 (the warmest year on record) all rank among the ten warmest years for my city. This year has generally followed the same overall warm pattern, with January being the only month to post a meaningful negative temp departure (spring was top ten warmest as well). Based on the trend, the rest of the year will likely remain warmer than average as well. I'm not sure why this seems to bother you so much. The reason I rarely bother posting here anymore is because this board is packed with people who are complete denialists, so detached from reality that they dismiss years of temperature and snowfall trends whenever those trends don't match what they want to believe. Instead of looking at the evidence, they default to denial and personal attacks. It's not worth wasting time arguing with people who have no interest in an honest discussion, which is why I mainly use Discord now.

Fargo's nearly +18° departure in February 2024 was undoubtedly boosted by the very strong Nino, but that wasn't the whole story. Given the elevated global baseline and increased frequency of extreme warm anomalies, seeing a month like that this upcoming winter somewhere in the lower 48 wouldn't be too surprising. Not to mention the strength of this Nino, which is unprecedented. Things could potentially get out of hand, but I’m ready for it.

Maybe another shot sometime in July or August, still plenty of summer left.

LOT has seven consecutive days in the 90s starting tomorrow. We’ll see if that pans out, but am concerned about convective activity getting in the way later in the week.

Your area and others nearby have largely missed out on the most intense summer heat in recent years. Much of that comes down to the large-scale pattern, which has often been influenced by forcing that hasn't favored persistent heat domes or strong upper-level ridges expanding into the central US/Midwest. Meanwhile, both coasts have experienced some of the most significant heat events in history this decade (such as the Pacific Northwest in 2021, the western March heatwave this year, and the upcoming historic heatwave for the East). Even last summer the EC experienced record breaking heat for a time, while we missed out on it. That’s not to say that we haven’t had our fair share of warmth (for many Midwestern cities, 2024 was the warmest year on record after all), but we’ve been lacking these prolonged, extreme, anomalous heat events relatively speaking, especially during summer, and instead have quietly accumulated positive temp departures through sustained, slightly to moderately above normal conditions. For instance, last June is the 6th warmest on record for Chicago, yet the temp only maxed out at 95 that month (and for all of summer). Those background patterns won't stay the same forever though, and at some point they'll likely shift in a way that's more favorable for extreme heat reaching your area again, including the return of triple-digit temperatures. Then you also have to take into account CC which has severe implications, but won’t go down that rabbit hole.

Multiple days in the 100s for Philly certainly constitutes as “extreme”, even if not in this sub. Hell even Detroit may see triple digit heat along with a high number of consecutive days well into the 90s. This isn’t a “typical stretch of summer heat” (especially considering this is a pre super nino summer), stop downplaying it.

A -2.6 F departure against our warmest 30 year average doesn’t even break top 50 coldest Januaries here LMAO. We’ve become so accustomed to the warmer climate we’re in now that what would’ve been considered a completely average, seasonably cold Jan just half a decade ago is now somehow standout cold to some. Also, as I mentioned in the Great Lakes sub forum, I rarely visit this board because it’s overrun with denialism, clueless takes, and the same braindead fools (many who happen to trolls as well) repeating themselves on loop, downplaying every warm up that’s headed their way. Pair that with people who are either unwilling or incapable of engaging with (because their heads are so far removed from reality) and there’s not much worth sticking around for. I’ve got better things to do than sit around and obsess over ho-hum 2-3 day cool shots that eventually get overshadowed by far more impressive heat pulses/ridges later on, or one slightly below average month followed by a several months of above to well above average temps. I’ve come to terms with this new climate, and I’m at peace (unlike many others on here). Winter never even arrived for the western half of the country, and the Desert Southwest experienced arguably the most extreme temperature event on record, but these people (if you can even call them people) choose to lose their minds over a largely average winter in the East, and an underwhelming first half of May in terms of cold.

Yeah, it’s why I seldom frequent this board tbh. It’s a stagnant echo chamber propped up by denialism and people who are completely out of touch with reality (especially the older crowd/boomers). Add in the same recycled, low-effort trolling from the usual suspects as you mentioned, and it’s hard to take anything seriously here. That aside, it was a great spring overall, arguably close to how nice 2024 was.

What’s driving the persistent high-latitude ridging in North America, and why hasn’t that pattern translated into stronger or more sustained ridging in the mid-latitudes (especially out east)? I know the CONUS has been warm for a while now too (with Feb-Apr in particular being VERY warm) and has seen its share of anomalous ridging (like what we saw out west in March this year). In general, however, the mid-latitude ridging has been weaker and less persistent than what we’ve seen farther north in Canada for the past decade plus. This seems especially true in New England, which has recently stood out as a relative cool spot to other regions. I have some ideas in relation to the general sense of the cause, but it’s a bit frustrating, and I don’t even live in New England lol. Feels like the Great Lakes region is kinda getting screwed out of the warmth too lately, particularly the northern GLs. For example, South Bend, IN was +7.4° in March, while Marquette was only +1.5°, though that was probably in part due to the -WPO which allowed for cold shots to sneak into the northern tier of the CONUS.

If I recall correctly, something similar happened in Feb 2024 when models were predicting a snowy and cold outcome most of the Midwest/East, but instead ended up being a legendary torch month with Fargo putting up an insane +17.5° departure. Though I can’t remember why exactly the cold/snowy forecasts busted so bad. Not sure if it was MJO related, but it was the warmest Feb on record for numerous cities, including my own. I do know the pac jet extension at the time was ridiculous, so that played a role surely.

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.