June Discobs 2026

[pazzo83]

91F at DCA.

[87storms]

25 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

91F at DCA.

I’m jealous. Been mostly cloudy up here all morning and mild. Hoping we can get some sun up here for a bit. I’m gonna be out west for a couple weeks so I’d like to see/hear some storms prior.

[pazzo83]

lol we are gonna be more than halfway through our avg 90-deg days before the end of June.

[frd]

Cell developed rapidly NE of Wilmington, DE. and is moving right up I-95 towards Philly. 

[Kay]

Brief shower, just enough rain to wet the laundry I had hanging outside 

[vortex95]

IL had 20+ tornado reports yesterday, and the state is now over 190 for the year (*reports*, not actual tornadoes, there are duplicate reports in this total).

 

Attached is a map for the bigger state totals through 6/19.  The disparity is amazing.  Why IL only so much more?  It's not like when an area is soaked or buried repeatedly w/ rain/snow.  That is more on the synoptic level and areal coverage is larger.  When you get down to a local level, such as an area that is about avg size for a U.S. state, that's not the same for scale.  And to get tornadoes, it is a lot more conditional (harder) than say a lot of heavy rain or snow over an extended period.

 

But given the vagaries of the atmosphere/patterns and given enough time, you are going to see things due to the law of large numbers and averages.  Just pointing this out b/c some try to assign a specific meaning or cause, where sometimes there is none.

 

Yes, I know of the hypothesis that tornado alley is shifting E, but we really do not have enough solid data IMHO.  Tornadoes, esp. weak and short-lived ones, were severely under-counted prior to the 1990s since storm chasing was not yet mainstream, WSR-88Ds did not exist for operational use, nor did the Internet (at least in widespread use).  ~35 years of data is not enough time to establish a trend either way.  I would argue that it wasn't until 2010 or so when we started to get close to actual number of tornadoes that occur every year in the U.S. w/ the  advent of the smartphone and dual-polarization radar.

[IronTy]

Clouded up over here in the past hour.  Stay vigilant.  

[stormy]

When I flashed a Storm Alert to my 1000 patron Newsletter at 2:23, I increased my POP for tomorrow from 25% to 60%.

Lo and behold, when Sterling revised with the afternoon package at 3:00, they increased their POP from 20 - 60% for tomorrow.

My call had nothing to do with skill or expertise. But, 5 models cannot be denied!

Hopefully, El Nino is beginning to knock.