yoda Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 12z Euro apparently left the oven on for Thursday to Saturday looking at 2mT Thursday 2pm 2mT Friday 2pm 2mT Saturday 2pm 2mT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z Euro apparently left the oven on for Thursday to Saturday looking a 2mT The 12z Euro and GFS actually upped the ante with the placement and strength of the 500 mb ridge. A stout 594dm ridge from the OH/KY border to Cape Hatteras. If that holds it's a legit setup for heat. Hope it holds, we haven't had a good heat wave in years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: The 12z Euro and GFS actually upped the ante with the placement and strength of the 500 mb ridge. A stout 594dm ridge from the OH/KY border to Cape Hatteras. If that holds it's a legit setup for heat. Hope it holds, we haven't had a good heat wave in years! I edited my post above and added the images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Sunday and Monday aren't much better on the 12z Euro Sunday 2pm 2mT Monday 2pm 2mT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 If, and it's still a decent if given the Euro mid range heat bias, the Euro is right then it's Excessive Heat Warnings for everyone even back to Cumberland and Keyser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 minute ago, yoda said: Sunday and Monday aren't much better on the 12z Euro Sunday 2pm 2mT Monday 2pm 2mT What's it say about the early July thunderstorm pattern? Heat that big could really amp them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Went back and took another look at the 06/12z GFS. They both try to pop a 597dm ridge at the peak of the heat on Friday into Saturday. If this holds, then it open the doors to some possibilities: Scattered or even widespread 100 degree air temperatures are possible Thur - Sat The strength and placement of the ridge would preclude afternoon convection Low temperatures may fail to fall below 80 degrees, perhaps even the low 80s in the Urban Heat Islands We might see the heat wave tail into the end of the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: What's it say about the early July thunderstorm pattern? Heat that big could really amp them. The time to watch will be when the heat wave breaks. That's when I'll be on derecho watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Just now, IronTy said: The time to watch will be when the heat wave breaks. That's when I'll be on derecho watch. I wonder Bam was onto something when they posted this on Monday then? Still pinned on the twitter btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The 12z Euro and GFS actually upped the ante with the placement and strength of the 500 mb ridge. A stout 594dm ridge from the OH/KY border to Cape Hatteras. If that holds it's a legit setup for heat. Hope it holds, we haven't had a good heat wave in years! Lest we forget!Washington DC ended a streak of 2867 days w/o 100 F reading on 6/22/2024. This is the 5th longest period on record since 1872. So "we're due" for a big heat wave??!! | Does this mean DMH will be 110? LOL. Actually, did they fix the issue b/c I look at the temps this month BWI vs. DMH, and high temps are close. June 11-12 -- both days 97 at BWI, and 98 at DMH. Still DMH seems to avg 1-2 F warmer for highs overall, but that's a *far* cry from the 5-7 F difference last year and before. BWI would be 97 and DMH would be 104, and that went into the official climate record! It appears now DMH just has the typical city UHI bias. Seems like when they did that construction a few years ago at the Science Center and DMH was offline for a while, it made the heat contamination worse. More concrete walkway all around and a solar farm within stone's throw. Just incompetent planning. It's like all these wind farms, and ground clutter contamination that occurs even far from WSR-88Ds. Take a look at DDC, VNX, and FDR, as examples. It's really bad. Eventually, there is going to come a time when a TOR is missed due to this wind farm clutter and lives lost I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 3 minutes ago, vortex95 said: Lest we forget! Eventually, there is going to come a time when a TOR is missed due to this wind farm clutter and lives lost I'm afraid. Speaking of TORs, looks like there may have been a brief spin up near Sussex County, DE today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I wonder Bam was onto something when they posted this on Monday then? Still pinned on the twitter btw. I think the tstm/derecho threat will be confined the Northeast. 700 mb temps are too warm for deep convection here. +10 usually caps it off this part of the country, and they get as high as +13 this week and stay AOA +10 thru Fri. 1000-500 thk stays AOA 579 much this coming week, peaking at 583, which is typically too warm a column for tstms unless you have good forcing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 3 minutes ago, vortex95 said: I think the tstm/derecho threat will be confined the Northeast. 700 mb temps are too warm for deep convection here. +10 usually caps it off this part of the country, and they get as high as +13 this week and stay AOA +10 thru Fri. 1000-500 thk stays AOA 579 much this coming week, peaking at 583, which is typically too warm a column for tstms unless you have good forcing. So basically the active July pattern has collapsed? Or what if they’re right about the storm pattern but it’s a week later than they thought it would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 13 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So basically the active July pattern has collapsed? Or what if they’re right about the storm pattern but it’s a week later than they thought it would be? Just talking about through the end of this week. It looks interesting by next weekend here on the GFS. ECMWF suggests it would after next weekend. The hot ridge breaks down somewhat on the E coast so stronger NW flow w/ embedded troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Just now, vortex95 said: Just talking about through the end of this week. It looks interesting by next weekend here on the GFS. ECMWF suggests it would after next weekend. The hot ridge breaks down somewhat on the E coast so stronger NW flow w/ embedded troughs. I meant to say active start of July pattern. But yeah, I saw what you brought up on the gfs, latest run has a system around the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I meant to say active start of July pattern. But yeah, I saw what you brought up on the gfs, latest run has a system around the 9th. Got it. Yes, it looks delayed b/c the ridge builds stronger overall on the E Coast this coming week than earlier models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Meanwhile, out West the next 48 hr. -4.7 sigma 500 hgt anomaly w/ this trough. This is impressive S+ even for the Northern Rockies for so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 4 minutes ago, vortex95 said: Meanwhile, out West the next 48 hr. -4.7 sigma 500 hgt anomaly w/ this trough. This is impressive S+ even for the Northern Rockies for so late. Big west coast trough delivers snow to help aquifers, and hopefully pump that east coast ridge. Win win! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Big west coast trough delivers snow to help aquifers, and hopefully pump that east coast ridge. Win win! For the talk and hype about the upcoming heat, it is really will be confined to the Midwest to New England and TN Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Pretty tame for temps the other 70% of the CONUS this coming week. See 850 temp anomalies for the ECMWF valid 00z 7/2. Point being this is not summer of 1980, 1988, or 2012 wild levels (so far). Not downplaying the heat at all, just keeping things in perspective in the large scale. There is world outside DCA-BOS! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 8 minutes ago, vortex95 said: For the talk and hype about the upcoming heat, it is really will be confined to the Midwest to New England and TN Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Pretty tame for temps the other 70% of the CONUS this coming week. See 850 temp anomalies for the ECMWF valid 00z 7/2. Point being this is not summer of 1980, 1988, or 2012 wild levels (so far). Not downplaying the heat at all, just keeping things in perspective in the large scale. There is world outside DCA-BOS! When would you say the heat done moves out? Some runs are having this go into Monday the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: When would you say the heat done moves out? Some runs are having this go into Monday the 6th. Unclear yet the exact timing of when the ridge breaks down/retrogrades to the W somewhat, but it should happen by early next week at the latest IMHO. Models have shown this for several days now. These NW ring of fire pattern can be quite good. If we can get a solid EML here, that means big potential for overnight convection. One thing I have noticed, overnight convection when an EML is present, the LTG is often wild, not unlike what occurs in the Plains/Midwest b/c the EML is a semi-permanent feature spring-fall here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 16 minutes ago, vortex95 said: For the talk and hype about the upcoming heat, it is really will be confined to the Midwest to New England and TN Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Pretty tame for temps the other 70% of the CONUS this coming week. See 850 temp anomalies for the ECMWF valid 00z 7/2. Point being this is not summer of 1980, 1988, or 2012 wild levels (so far). Not downplaying the heat at all, just keeping things in perspective in the large scale. There is world outside DCA-BOS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: To be fair the regions described take up most of the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: To be fair the regions described take up most of the eastern seaboard. Correct, but as I mentioned in a previous post, there is a world outside of DCA-BOS. The E Coast bias the media has when it comes to wx is obvious. Yes, more ppl live here, but that shouldn't no matter in the grand scheme of things when talking about wx itself. The atmosphere has no bias as to what area it impacts or not or when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 15 minutes ago, vortex95 said: Correct, but as I mentioned in a previous post, there is a world outside of DCA-BOS. The E Coast bias the media has when it comes to wx is obvious. Yes, more ppl live here, but that shouldn't no matter in the grand scheme of things when talking about wx itself. The atmosphere has no bias as to what area it impacts or not or when. I mean, it’s the same thing when there’s a winter ridge out west and the east coast is in a deep freeze. I wonder how many people realize just how extreme the winter was in the intermountain west. And anthropogenic climate change is extremely real, no matter what the media is fixated on at any time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 3 hours ago, vortex95 said: Unclear yet the exact timing of when the ridge breaks down/retrogrades to the W somewhat, but it should happen by early next week at the latest IMHO. Models have shown this for several days now. These NW ring of fire pattern can be quite good. If we can get a solid EML here, that means big potential for overnight convection. One thing I have noticed, overnight convection when an EML is present, the LTG is often wild, not unlike what occurs in the Plains/Midwest b/c the EML is a semi-permanent feature spring-fall here. Man I've wanted a good light show for a long time now. I've got a D850 and some great lenses for it but I need storms for the shot to exist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 It is raining!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 LWX going 105 in the zones at DCA for Friday .WEDNESDAY...Sunny, hot with highs in the upper 90s. Heat index values up to 110. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 70s. .THURSDAY...Sunny, hot with highs 100 to 105. Heat index values up to 110. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 80. .FRIDAY...Sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot with highs around 105. Chance of rain 30 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. .INDEPENDENCE DAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot with highs around 100. Chance of rain 40 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 4 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX going 105 in the zones at DCA for Friday .WEDNESDAY...Sunny, hot with highs in the upper 90s. Heat index values up to 110. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 70s. .THURSDAY...Sunny, hot with highs 100 to 105. Heat index values up to 110. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 80. .FRIDAY...Sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot with highs around 105. Chance of rain 30 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. .INDEPENDENCE DAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot with highs around 100. Chance of rain 40 percent. That would be impressive. I can't recall a reading at DCA of 105, but admittedly I don't track summer heat . Edit:: Google tells me this happened in 2012. I was here and it was super hot, just don't remember the 105 reading 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 I really don't know what the NWS is thinking by putting 104 and 105 into the zones. You don't forecast historic heat 4-5 days out, especially when the only guidance giving those types of numbers are models that have known boundary layer issues. From the AFD: ================================================================== *** ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 107 (set on Jul 10, 1936) Washington 106 (set on Jul 20, 1930 + Aug 06, 1918) Sterling-Dulles Airport 105 (set on Jul 22, 2011) Baltimore Downtown 108 (set on Jul 07, 2012 + Jul 22, 2011) Annapolis 106 (set on Aug 06, 1918) Hagerstown 105 (set on Jul 14, 1954) Martinsburg 112 (set on Jul 11, 1936) Charlottesville 107 (set on Sep 07, 1954 + 3 other times) ================================================================== *** ALL-TIME RECORD WARM LOWS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 83 (set on Aug 05, 1930 + 2 other times) Washington 84 (set on Jul 24, 2011 + 2 other times) Sterling-Dulles Airport 79 (set on Aug 08, 2007) Baltimore Downtown 88 (set on Jul 02, 2011 and Jul 10, 1993) Annapolis 92 (set on Jul 07, 1994) Hagerstown 86 (set on Jun 15, 1899) Martinsburg 86 (set on Jul 21, 1930) Charlottesville 85 (set on Aug 07, 1918) ================================================================== *** JULY MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 107 (set on Jul 10, 1936) Washington 106 (set on Jul 20, 1930) Sterling-Dulles Airport 105 (set on Jul 22, 2011) Baltimore Downtown 108 (set on Jul 07, 2012 + Jul 22, 2011) Annapolis 105 (set on Jul 21, 1930 + Jul 02, 1901) Hagerstown 105 (set on Jul 14, 1954) Martinsburg 112 (set on Jul 11, 1936) Charlottesville 107 (set on Jul 10, 1936 + Jul 20, 1930) ================================================================== *** JULY MONTHLY RECORD WARM LOWS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 83 (set on Jul 21, 1930) Washington 84 (set on Jul 24, 2011 + 2 other times) Sterling-Dulles Airport 78 (set on Jul 24, 2010 + Jul 08, 2010) Baltimore Downtown 88 (set on Jul 22, 2011 + Jul 10, 1993) Annapolis 92 (set on Jul 07, 1994) Hagerstown 83 (set on Jul 24, 2010) Martinsburg 86 (set on Jul 21, 1930) Charlottesville 84 (set on Jul 22, 1930) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: Jul 01 ================================================================== Baltimore 103 (1901) | 80 (1933 + 1901) Washington 102 (1901) | 79 (1977) Sterling-Dulles Airport 96 (2012) | 72 (2017 + 3) Baltimore Downtown 101 (2012) | 82 (2012) Annapolis 103 (1901) | 79 (1945 + 1901) Hagerstown 100 (1901) | 74 (2017 + 1977) Martinsburg 102 (1933) | 74 (1933) Charlottesville 101 (2012 + 1945) | 78 (1901) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: Jul 02 ================================================================== Baltimore 103 (1901) | 80 (1901) Washington 101 (1898) | 79 (2012 + 1872) Sterling-Dulles Airport 98 (1966) | 75 (2022) Baltimore Downtown 102 (1966) | 84 (2002) Annapolis 105 (1901) | 80 (1901) Hagerstown 100 (1966) | 74 (2018 + 1901) Martinsburg 102 (1933 + 1931) | 75 (1933 + 1901) Charlottesville 100 (1954) | 76 (1910) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: Jul 03 ================================================================== Baltimore 104 (1898) | 80 (1898) Washington 101 (1966 + 2) | 80 (2018) Sterling-Dulles Airport 103 (1966) | 73 (2018 + 2) Baltimore Downtown 102 (1997) | 82 (2018 + 1983) Annapolis 100 (1901) | 84 (1896) Hagerstown 102 (1966) | 76 (2002) Martinsburg 102 (1941 + 1911) | 74 (1980) Charlottesville 100 (1966 + 1954) | 79 (1911) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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