Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Torch Tiger]

that 3k NAM looked pretty good for tomorrow night.

[Torch Tiger]

https://www.kissin925.com/eye-in-the-sky/  time-sens, nice storms near Joplin MO

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Dry begets dry. 

 

[vortex95]

19 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

It’s hard to get overly excited for organized severe weather or a higher end severe potential without any signals of an EML. But if we can get dews into the 70’s with strong shear and height falls we can get swaths of wind damage 

Yes.  I see that.

Noted on the 00z ECMWF, very strong WAA occurs on Thu during the day with the passage of the WF (that's classic for a big tor day).  Nice nose of above avg 850 temp 00z 6/19 (attached).   Winds at 500 as high at 95 kt (attached) and 300 winds as high as 115 kt? Tell me something big can *not* happen w/ these kind of wind anomalies and such a strong sfc low in srn Quebec in June!  Derecho instead of Scott spinners here perhaps.  Looks better to SW of the region.

Since set ups like this are rare here, we don't know the full range of possibilities.  We may be surprised.
 

[vortex95]

NNE looks good for short bow segments and supercells today.

What is interesting is 2-5am Mon in eastern SNE.  Nice theta-e noses at 925 and 850 and wind fields 700 and below ramp up nicely just ahead of the well-defined trough axis.  00z RRFS and to a lesser extent HRRR show decent tstms firing ern MA and RI.  LTG density is solid.  So maybe CoastalWx can get shaken out of bed w/ a +CG super crash! LOL.
 

[Nomz]

Stormnet ringing bells for us Thursday. For those unaware, Stormnet is a new AI tool for SVWX forecasting that came out this year and has performed exceptionally well. Green is about equivalent to an SPC slight or enhanced, so this is quite a strong signal for d5. I know some may hesitate due to relatively modest forecast EMLs, but globals tend to underestimate thermos, and with the forecast shear (60-70+ EBWD and 300+ 3k SRH), I wouldn't want to count anything out. We await the king NAM.

 

[vortex95]

14 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Stormnet ringing bells for us Thursday. For those unaware, Stormnet is a new AI tool for SVWX forecasting that came out this year and has performed exceptionally well. Green is about equivalent to an SPC slight or enhanced, so this is quite a strong signal for d5. I know some may hesitate due to relatively modest forecast EMLs, but globals tend to underestimate thermos, and with the forecast shear (60-70+ EBWD and 300+ 3k SRH), I wouldn't want to count anything out. We await the king NAM.

 

Will this convince WxWiz that an EML is not required for SIGTOR? 

Scott still be like "MEH!"

I have a hard time believing that something solid will not occur w/ those dynamics in place in mid-June in the region.

[CoastalWx]

Probably flash flood potential in NNe too along with the SVR that Vortex noted.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

NNE looks good for short bow segments and supercells today.

What is interesting is 2-5am Mon in eastern SNE.  Nice theta-e noses at 925 and 850 and wind fields 700 and below ramp up nicely just ahead of the well-defined trough axis.  00z RRFS and to a lesser extent HRRR show decent tstms firing ern MA and RI.  LTG density is solid.  So maybe CoastalWx can get shaken out of bed w/ a +CG super crash! LOL.
 

Congrats Cape Cod. 

[moneypitmike]

We've been fine with rain up at Pit2.  

I'm really hoping to get some here on the south coast though........the "lawn" at the new Pit is a disaster.  The scourge of the neighborhood.  lol

[Modfan2]

14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

We've been fine with rain up at Pit2.  

I'm really hoping to get some here on the south coast though........the "lawn" at the new Pit is a disaster.  The scourge of the neighborhood.  lol

Same here, just torched. Hoping for some rain out of tonight’s front passing 

[Typhoon Tip]

Some form of a severe threat, or just some weird anachronistic cyclone for this time of year with a lot of wind Thursday 

Emerging yet still vague heat signal after the 25th  

[Baroclinic Zone]

Warm start to the day. Mid 80s already.

[Chrisrotary12]

HRRR is nice for overnight tonight. 3km NAM blows. 

[weatherwiz]

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Yes.  I see that.

Noted on the 00z ECMWF, very strong WAA occurs on Thu during the day with the passage of the WF (that's classic for a big tor day).  Nice nose of above avg 850 temp 00z 6/19 (attached).   Winds at 500 as high at 95 kt (attached) and 300 winds as high as 115 kt? Tell me something big can *not* happen w/ these kind of wind anomalies and such a strong sfc low in srn Quebec in June!  Derecho instead of Scott spinners here perhaps.  Looks better to SW of the region.

Since set ups like this are rare here, we don't know the full range of possibilities.  We may be surprised.
 

It's certainly intriguing for sure, especially given the shear forecast. If we aren't going to get steep mlvl lapse rates then hopefully we can get dewpoints into the lower 70's and at least increase potential to push MLCAPE values ~2000 J. Too early to really worry about CAPE potential but if we can muster 1500-2000 J of MLCAPE in this environment, there would be some nasty storms for sure. 

[weatherwiz]

I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.

I'd take the high res depictions in a heartbeat. 3k and HRRR looked juicy overnight. 

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like it's about to pour up at WXW2. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Most stuff is very meh for most of CT. The way things have gone probably the way to think . Even for more than a tenth or two 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'd take the high res depictions in a heartbeat. 3k and HRRR looked juicy overnight. 

We're def getting widespread rain and at least embedded thunderstorms. Just a matter of whether there will be any embedded strong/severe storms, and if so, is it rather localized or more scattered?

[Cyclone-68]

SE MA the thunderstorm capital of eastern MA

[dendrite]

81.7/63

Meh on storms. Can't wait for my 2 rumbles and 0.05" to pass through around midnight while 10 miles north gets 1"+.

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most stuff is very meh for most of CT. The way things have gone probably the way to think . Even for more than a tenth or two 

 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.

Some of the best lightning shows I've had have come from nighttime elevated cape events!  Not a lot of CGs but lots of CC / CA.

[jbenedet]

63F for SST’s off coast of NH

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098

 

For the date that’s normal for south shore Long Island…

[jbenedet]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

81.7/63

Meh on storms. Can't wait for my 2 rumbles and 0.05" to pass through around midnight while 10 miles north gets 1"+.

I will shoot rounds into the sky if this happens again here.

[powderfreak]

We pour.