June 2026

[MANDA]

[WeatherGeek2025]

18 more days and days start getting shorter @MJO812

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

18 more days and days start getting shorter @MJO812

yeah by like 5 second a day at first

[winterwx21]

23 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah we'll see as we get closer but a total washout seems unlikely 

I see the Euro now doesn't give us much rain on Sunday. This drought is just gonna get worse over the next couple weeks. I hope it turns around during the summer. 

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see the Euro now doesn't give us much rain on Sunday. This drought is just gonna get worse over the next couple weeks. I hope it turns around during the summer. 

CMC and AIFS have pretty much nothing, icon too

[Brian5671]

48 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see the Euro now doesn't give us much rain on Sunday. This drought is just gonna get worse over the next couple weeks. I hope it turns around during the summer. 

Looks like a cold frontal passage with limited moisture-we are starting to get out of the season of stratiform rains.    Too bad it was a holiday weekend but we really needed that big dump back then

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah by like 5 second a day at first

And as if the days getting shorter means it's going to get cooler or something.

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

And as if the days getting shorter means it's going to get cooler or something.

It's not until around August 10th or so when sunset slips below 8pm that it's all that noticeable.

[psv88]

I would take today for the next 3 months. 85 and sunny. Perfect 

[donsutherland1]

A warming trend is now underway. Tomorrow should see temperatures top out in lower 80s and perhaps middle 80s. Friday and Saturday will be very warm days with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Should Central Park reach 90°, 2026 would become the first year on record that New York City had a high of 80° or above in March and highs of 90° or above in April, May, and June.

Saturday will remain warm before somewhat cooler air arrives to conclude the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.90°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -34.80 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.384 today. 

 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like a cold frontal passage with limited moisture-we are starting to get out of the season of stratiform rains.    Too bad it was a holiday weekend but we really needed that big dump back then

Yep. As much as it sucked it's good we got the rains over Memorial Day Weekend. Here on out we rely on daytime T-storms or whatever organized T-storms, or tropical system which will be rare during this oncoming very strong Nino. Lawns will be crispy in a few weeks. 

[[email protected]]

There are growing signs that there could be severe heat in the June 12th-14th time frame.

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. As much as it sucked it's good we got the rains over Memorial Day Weekend. Here on out we rely on daytime T-storms or whatever organized T-storms, or tropical system which will be rare during this oncoming very strong Nino. Lawns will be crispy in a few weeks. 

Could be seeing crisping lawns by the weekend.  Areas of my yard not reached by the sprinklers are already starting to crisp.  The entire yard was lush green as of late last week.  Flower pots in full sun and community garden bed need watering pretty much every two days.

[TriPol]

7 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

18 more days and days start getting shorter @MJO812

If we get a Super, record breaking El Nino for autumn 2026... we could have an amazing fall foliage year.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

And as if the days getting shorter means it's going to get cooler or something.

Not really, there is something called seasonal lag, which is why the hottest days on most years are deep into July, sometimes in early August.

Besides, the days have noticeably stopped getting longer, especially on the morning side. At night, it is still getting light later. By around June 13-14, most places in this area will have seen their max daylight (it might still be technically getting longer by a second or two, but that's junk change when you have 15 hours of daylight), and that will go on until about June 26-27.

[bluewave]

Very warm early June pattern with 90s next few days then a pullback and more 90s next week. As we saw with the early 100° heat back in May, this is warmer going into at least the early summer than past super El Niño events

The extensive nature of the +30C warm pool from the IO over to the PMM region has resulted in competing Niña-like and Nino-like influences. The warmest days are what we typically see with La Niña early in the summer. The recent cooler from the Memorial Day weekend to a few days ago were more Nino-like.  But the warmer days were of a higher magnitude than the cooler days were. Some spots set or tied their all-time May monthly maximum temperatures.

It could also be the drought feedback across the CONUS is contributing to this unusual early summer warmth for a super El Niño. Along with the -PDO and continuing warm pool east of Japan. Plus these are our first super El Niños only 3 years apart leading to another global baseline temperature jump over such a short period of time. 
 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very warm early June pattern with 90s next few days then a pullback and more 90s next week. As we saw with the early 100° heat back in May, this is warmer going into at least the early summer than past super El Niño events

1991 is the only one of the high-end el nino events that really compares. There was a heat wave at the end of May, and that really set the tone for the entire summer. 2015, to a lesser extent, but we didn't have the warmth in June, but rather in the back half of the summer into September. Both of those years had a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino leading up to it. We didn't have that in the lead up to this year.

I expected this summer to be a textbook pre-nino summer that was cooler than recent summers, like 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. If we can't get even get a cool summer in this setting, I wonder what it will take to get one. (Short of a major volcanic eruption, like Pinatubo in 1991, which caused 1992 to be notably colder, I probably don't see it happening any time soon, if not ever.)

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not really, there is something called seasonal lag, which is why the hottest days on most years are deep into July, sometimes in early August.

Besides, the days have noticeably stopped getting longer, especially on the morning side. At night, it is still getting light later. By around June 13-14, most places in this area will have seen their max daylight (it might still be technically getting longer by a second or two, but that's junk change when you have 15 hours of daylight), and that will go on until about June 26-27.

Right, which was my exact point, it was sarcasm..

[forkyfork]

On 6/2/2026 at 9:46 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Sunday looking wet now

gone. ugh

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

gone. ugh

 

[Stormlover74]