Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[weathafella]

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn.  Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December.  I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power.  12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

[cleetussnow]

57 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn.  Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December.  I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power.  12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

Which was a record Nino…signs of things to come.  Bad things.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn.  Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December.  I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power.  12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking.

1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.

[Ginx snewx]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking.

1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.

What are the correlation values for New England? Good luck with your forecast. Impressive EnSO discussions. New England is a wildcard because of the correlations drop off rapidly here. Not you but I wish people would understand a pos 2 month in Eastern Canada is still bitterly cold. To say there's not going to be cold air source this winter is incorrect. It is entirely possible our pattern of cold stormy intrusions continues all fall. 

[forkyfork]

warm and rainy

[stadiumwave]

CANSIPS OCTOBER UPDATE

DEC

JAN

 

FEB

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't love the look of the CANSIPS in February....that looks rather suppressed at peak climo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Trend of the CANSIPS is as I expected...its strengthening that ridge and edging it further southward.

For instance, it's trying to do this for December.

But I think we end up with something like this:

[forkyfork]

yeah. warm and rainy

[forkyfork]

ray-nee

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Trend of the CANSIPS is as I expected...its strengthening that ridge and edging it further southward.

For instance, it's trying to do this for December.

But I think we end up with something like this:

Yeah we are going to lose December. The question is what happens after that.

[Prismshine Productions]

CANSIPS OCTOBER UPDATE
DEC



JAN



 
FEB



 
 

+1.5
+1.5
+1
All three months +QPF...

Honestly for the interior Rt.2 N that isn't a terrible look

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[40/70 Benchmark]

CANSIPS is unquestionably too cold.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CANSIPS is unquestionably too cold.

And it’s warm already 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And it’s warm already 

I feel like the trend on seasonal guidance is at least as, if not more important than the absolute data and CANSIPS keeps trending warmer and further south with that ridge...this is why February is now no longer above average precip for us, but if you look back at the 9/1 and especially 8/1 run, precip was way above average.

[Prismshine Productions]

Prediction: +2-+3.5° AN, 50-75% snowfall

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I made this call back on May 4th and it still feels comfortable

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[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I made this call back on May 4th and it still feels comfortable

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Primshineweather.com?

[Cobalt]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

yeah. warm and rainy

I was really thinking we were in for a cold and snowy winter looking at all of the analogs for east based super el ninos. This helped reign in my expectations. thank you

[512high]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

I was really thinking we were in for a cold and snowy winter looking at all of the analogs for east based super el ninos. This helped reign in my expectations. thank you

Lol, not sure if I can afford diesel for equipment this winter! But the show must go on.........

[Torch Tiger]

33 minutes ago, 512high said:

Lol, not sure if I can afford diesel for equipment this winter! But the show must go on.........

Yeah, forget it

[Prismshine Productions]

Primshineweather.com?

Thought about it, then again, ain't no way I'm wanting to compete with you or several others on here that do weather blogs

[SnoSki14]

12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

yeah. warm and rainy

It's gonna be mid-late March weather with extra rain for 4 months. 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's gonna be mid-late March weather with extra rain for 4 months. 

Its funny how all the gloom and doom posts are already out.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Its funny how all the gloom and doom posts are already out.  

It's pre-emptive defensive posturing from all of the people who have been mortally wounded by mother nature.

[Brewbeer]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Its funny how all the gloom and doom posts are already out.  

it's also funny because it's effective

many weak weenies in this forum

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

it's also funny because it's effective

many weak weenies in this forum

Cottonelle soft weenies.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's pre-emptive defensive posturing from all of the people who have been mortally wounded by mother nature. people who do not live in New England but like to post in our forum for some very strange reason

fixed

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh,... there's a pathway to getting a surprisingly winter result ( positive snow, assuming that's the consensus).

However, that's relative to a shitty background.    All the shenanigans that go on here is about 99% guided by individual differences in what reality really is. LOL 

I suspect those that are "gloom and doom" posting, or are being perceived to be so ( sometimes I think others are also bit too touchy about their d-drip possibly being NARCAN'ed  haha ), they are really just being practical. If the limitation on prospects are legit - I don't know.  Tough shit. Get over it. 

It's a separate issue with maturity - mother nature takes the winter candy out of their hand and puts it back on the shelf as we're going through the autumn checkout line. So the kid gets snitty.  

Meanwhile, there are those that don't seem to really give the limitations equal billing, either.  We'll just call them optimists....  To them, it's not so much attempting to be evasive... ?  I don't think so.  I suspect  to them it's a built in assumption.  However, that does get a little weighty/bias eventually, given time and crowd physics.  There'll be this aroma that smells like false hope that drives posters like Forky to distraction.  HAHAHA.  

One should really preface their missives with something like, "excluding the innate limitations ( or gains ...ether way) that we all know are apparent...  like the warmest ever ENSO mapped over the warmest the Earth has been since the late Hadean epoch"  (expressive).

That way,  it's your fault for not fucking reading the conditional statement.  Humor aside, CC and warm ENSO doesn't send chills down any rational spine.   What those of us that are optimistic are doing is just finding kernels snowcane-reasons lined up on the mirrors.   I suspect there's something about the lingering -PDO in conflict with the +ENSO that might be one such pathway.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh,... there's a pathway to getting a surprisingly winter result ( positive snow, assuming that's the consensus).

However, that's relative to a shitty background.    All the shenanigans that go on here is about 99% guided by individual differences in what reality really is. LOL 

I suspect those that are "gloom and doom" posting, or are being perceived to be so ( sometimes I think others are also bit too touchy about their d-drip possibly being NARCAN'ed  haha ), they are really just being practical. If the limitation on prospects are legit - I don't know.  Tough shit. Get over it. 

It's a separate issue with maturity - mother nature takes the winter candy out of their hand and puts it back on the shelf as we're going through the autumn checkout line. So the kid gets snitty.  

Meanwhile, there are those that don't seem to really give the limitations equal billing, either.  We'll just call them optimists....  To them, it's not so much attempting to be evasive... ?  I don't think so.  I suspect  to them it's a built in assumption.  However, that does get a little weighty/bias eventually, given time and crowd physics.  There'll be all this false hope that drive Forky to distraction.  HAHAHA.  

One should really preface their missives with something like, "excluding the innate limitations ( or gains ...ether way) that we all know are apparent...  like the warmest ever ENSO mapped over the warmest the Earth has been since the late Hadean epoch"  (expressive).

That way,  it's your fault for not fucking reading the conditional statement.  Humor aside, CC and warm ENSO doesn't send chills down any rational spine.   What those of us that are trying to find is kernels of reason to getting snowcane lined up on the mirrors.   I suspect there's some about the lingering -PDO in conflict with the +ENSO that might be one such pathway.  

I don't think that is the issue...usually the blame arrow points towards the party speaking in absolutes, which is the "no winter" crowd...if you see anyone supremely confident in a great winter, please point them out to me. On the other hand, I see plenty hell-bent on a non-season, which is silly even just considering the intensity of ENSO overlaid onto CC....that position inherently demonstrates a lack of understanding as to the complexity of the implications of CC. As an example....CC has tended to attenuate the influence of ENSO, which we are still seeing to an extent, and has increased intra-season variability. Additionally, the poles are warming faster, which leaves us prone to shorter-term bouts of extreme blocking patters, which always bares watching given the magnitude of the STJ that is anticipated.

Obviously hand we are dealt is heavily weighted toward warmth IN THE MEAN, but in no way precludes all hell breaking lose over shorter intervals of time for the reasons discussed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All I ask is that people keep an open-mind....the need for preemptive defensive posturing is every bit as prominent on this board as any bias born of lust for the D-drip.