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3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate -> Enhanced -> Slight) RESULT: Significant wind after dark

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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wxmeddler
wxmeddler

FOLKS Exceptional Synoptics call for exceptional care, and in the equinox seasons if you've got big numbers on the cold side, you should be prepared for big numbers on the warm side. This system is

SnowenOutThere
SnowenOutThere

Results from my first ever (severe) storm chase! Good learning experience even if I didn't get to see anything warned (tornado or thunderstorm). Was some low level rotation but fell apart quickly and

stormtracker
stormtracker

Yoda has had a microchip embedded in his brain that for years that receives watches, AFDs and sports scores directly the nanosecond they are issued.  This is why we keep him around. 

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
Posted

I can see early dismissals for places in central VA, even far southern MD, but don't see it for the capitol region. The squall should be late enough in the day not to matter for places along I-95. Even so, the safest place for kids would be in schools. The issue is panicked parents rushing to pick up kids and getting caught up exposed in the parking lot.

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Hyphnx

Hyphnx

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I can see early dismissals for places in central VA, even far southern MD, but don't see it for the capitol region. The squall should be late enough in the day not to matter for places along I-95. Even so, the safest place for kids would be in schools. The issue is panicked parents rushing to pick up kids and getting caught up exposed in the parking lot.

Schools are calling it for tomorrow. Chesterfield is out 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Latest tornado watch issued for KY and IN 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0058.html

  

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 58
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   825 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central and Southern Indiana
     Central and Northern Kentucky

   * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 825 PM
     until 300 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely

   SUMMARY...A severe squall line is forecast to rapidly move
   east-northeast across the Watch area this evening into tonight. 
   Damaging gusts will likely be the most prevalent hazard, but a
   couple of tornadoes are also possible with embedded mesovortices
   within the squall line.

 

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Really? My kid will be home by noon and now under my watch instead of schools in the event of a serious weather threat. Makes sense to me to send kids home 

I was on the fence about messaging my kid's teacher saying I was gonna get my kid out early (we walk to/from school) so now I'm glad I don't have to make that decision myself ^_^

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
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Wasn’t updated when I checked - need to just get my Twitter notifications on for their head.

Think I need to go in anyway but sounds like I can maybe jet off at noon. Good deal as far as I’m concerned.
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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mappy said:

Really? My kid will be home by noon and now under my watch instead of schools in the event of a serious weather threat. Makes sense to me to send kids home 

Living with a kindergarten teacher, so much more goes into a lot of this.  I guess if you don’t have kids or know a teacher, it’s hard for most to understand the logistics of what actually goes on inside a school during these severe weather events. It’s not easy and pretty intense and stressful. Better to have kids in their own homes under their own family supervision. 

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SnowenOutThere

SnowenOutThere

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

For these parts, a pretty good severe setup. I lived in Midland, TX for 5 years, so this is relatively ho-hum. Wake me up where there are 60k ft topped super cells with baseball+ sized hail and naders :P

10 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

I need to post more.

the tl;dr is I could care less about the tornado potential since the wind is the big story and I ain't chasing no storms going 50+ mph through this region. Doesn't seem like an "everyone gets hit" setup but the more potent stuff looks like it's gonna hit hard where it hits.

Quick question for the both of you. When browsing the SPC mesoanalysis page tomorrow what should I be looking for to see if the event is on track? Just wondering what values of CAPE or other parameters I should be using as a guideline for forecasting out to my peeps if things are looking better/worse than anticipated. 

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Living with a kindergarten teacher, so much more goes into a lot of this.  I guess if you don’t have kids or know a teacher, it’s hard for most to understand the logistics of what actually goes on inside a school during these severe weather events. It’s not easy and pretty intense and stressful. Better to have kids in their own homes under their own family supervision. 

I hope the students don’t hit your impressive stash. 

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Quick question for the both of you. When browsing the SPC mesoanalysis page tomorrow what should I be looking for to see if the event is on track? Just wondering what values of CAPE or other parameters I should be using as a guideline for forecasting out to my peeps if things are looking better/worse than anticipated. 

Highly dependent on the setup, but for tomorrow I'm looking for CAPE >500 (with closer to 1000 for the higher-end scenarios).

I'd emphasize that this isn't a GO HIDE ALL AFTERNOON scenario so much as you don't want to be caught out and about if/when the storms roll through. The higher-end stuff will probably be pretty localized.

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The Dude

The Dude

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Living with a kindergarten teacher, so much more goes into a lot of this.  I guess if you don’t have kids or know a teacher, it’s hard for most to understand the logistics of what actually goes on inside a school during these severe weather events. It’s not easy and pretty intense and stressful. Better to have kids in their own homes under their own family supervision. 

Agreed.  Depending on what period a storm hits, my son's "weather shelter" at school, is sitting under windows and putting his arms over his head...

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Quick question for the both of you. When browsing the SPC mesoanalysis page tomorrow what should I be looking for to see if the event is on track? Just wondering what values of CAPE or other parameters I should be using as a guideline for forecasting out to my peeps if things are looking better/worse than anticipated. 

My thoughts align with Mark's (surprise surprise). Any cell that breaks out ahead of the line should be taken with caution, but the squall line damage should be fairly localized. This will NOT be a derecho situation where there is widespread 60-80 mph gusts. The 60-80 mph gusts will be localized into 1-3 mile wide swaths.

Parameters I'll be watching is MLCAPE, 3CAPE, 0-2km SR Winds

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  • Kmlwx changed the title to 3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate -> Enhanced -> Slight) RESULT: Significant wind after dark

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