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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread


Maestrobjwa
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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

My nowcast guess - based on radar, seems to be some convergence from HGR/MRB down to west of leesburg to warrenton. Maybe thinking thats where the norlun forms initially and then slowly migrates east to DC

We did get a burst of very fat flakes that was coming down heavy, but it only lasted for about 15 mins or so, around 3:30PM or so. Still coming down pretty good, but not that heavy.  It might have been that passing through.

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Just now, MDphotog said:

We did get a burst of very fat flakes that was coming down heavy, but it only lasted for about 15 mins or so, around 3:30PM or so. Still coming down pretty good, but not that heavy.  It might have been that passing through.

the norlun trough is still a few hours away iirc.

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4 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Seems to me the EURO was correct in not "tucking in" the surface low like so many other models did. It's well offshore and has been since leaving the Carolina coast.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

That's actually a good spot for our area. The issues don't arise until later when it gets kicked east-northeast. If it were to move northeast from there, or north-northeast like it has been, we would be in decent shape, but looks like it'll move away after is slows/stalls for 2-4 hrs. as the ULL maturation captures it. I think something is causing it to kick which I would need to look into. Is what it is. Still an incredible storm to watch unfold. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

2" more inches to go for the over/under.  We are not too far away from the back end but man it is pouring snow right now.  Soon time for plows down.  Snow is accumulating of road despite temp of 33

I am pretty optimistic that the over will hit now that the initial norlun might set up just west of us. 

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4 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

the norlun trough is still a few hours away iirc.

I know, but the radar edge is getting really close now.  It might start back building in.  There is some more snow that just popped up pushing west near Chambersburg.  We shall see.

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