Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Everything is going as planned. Accums won't really start for another 3-5 hrs, especially after sunset. Temps will drop to near and below freezing and rates will increase. The ULL formation to our south has not even started yet. Hours to go before the good stuff. Go out, grab a bite, have a drink or two, relax, take a nap, celebrate the USA Gold, then enjoy snow falling later. It'll do what it's going to do. Everyone stay safe, especially our Delmarva brethren. 

Respectful question. Not trying to be critical just trying to understand rationale. My forecast is 5-10”. But it’s clear it’s too warm today and snow won’t start to stick until after 4pm or so.  And the forecast kinda indicates this. But it’s also been clear to me there won’t be enough QPF to reach those totals if we lose all the precip today!  I’ve been doing this math for 24 hours now and not getting it because the model runs that showed 5-10” also snowed 3-5” of that falling today right now!  And the runs that didn’t only have me getting 3-5” not 5-10. There has never been anything that shows no snow until this evening AND 5-10”. There isn’t enough qpf left after 5pm for that. I only see about .3-.4 qpf across guidance after 5pm. 
 

So I guess I’m confused. What’s the thinking on the 5-10” forecast with all the snow coming tonight when everything I see indicates half the storm is over by then and only .3-.4 qpf left tonight up here. 

[jonjon]

Really picking up here now.  A couple of inches so far.

 

Good luck lowlanders!

[Kay]

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Everything is going as planned. Accums won't really start for another 3-5 hrs, especially after sunset. Temps will drop to near and below freezing and rates will increase. The ULL formation to our south has not even started yet. Hours to go before the good stuff. Go out, grab a bite, have a drink or two, relax, take a nap, celebrate the USA Gold, then enjoy snow falling later. It'll do what it's going to do. Everyone stay safe, especially our Delmarva brethren. 

We're gonna have to repost this on every page btw now and sunset. 

[WVclimo]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just not that much in rates here.   Plus 35-40 everywhere is not going to cut it except for hvy snow.

Surprised by the temps there.  I've been under a persistent band all morning, and I guess that's how I've been able to stay at 33 degrees at 500'

 

 

[SnowDreamer]

Light rain, up 3 degrees since 9am in Fairfax 

39/37

[rjvanals]

Euro is underwhelming from DC to NY vs expectations 24 hrs ago 

[SnowenOutThere]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I bet the catoctins already have 4" +.

Was snowing hard all morning up there.

If you want to see something fun go to 511 Vdot and look at any of the cameras at the Shenandoah passes. Full on winter wonderland with wet snow coating everything but the road. Meanwhile cameras even 500 ft lower have all rain 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Respectful question. Not trying to be critical just trying to understand rationale. My forecast is 5-10”. But it’s clear it’s too warm today and snow won’t start to stick until after 4pm or so.  And the forecast kinda indicates this. But it’s also been clear to me there won’t be enough QPF to reach those totals if we lose all the precip today!  I’ve been doing this math for 24 hours now and not getting it because the model runs that showed 5-10” also snowed 3-5” of that falling today right now!  And the runs that didn’t only have me getting 3-5” not 5-10. There has never been anything that shows no snow until this evening AND 5-10”. There isn’t enough qpf left after 5pm for that. I only see about .3-.4 qpf across guidance after 5pm. 
 

So I guess I’m confused. What’s the thinking on the 5-10” forecast with all the snow coming tonight when everything I see indicates half the storm is over by then and only .3-.4 qpf left tonight up here. 

12z Euro reflects your/our concerns.

[CAPE]

The volkswagon sized flakes have ended and now normal sized big flakes coming down, much closer together. Solid coating on otg.

temp at 33

Gotta make the most of this here before I have to leave for the rest of the storm.

[Nomz]

Just now, rjvanals said:

Euro is underwhelming from DC to NY vs expectations 24 hrs ago 

surely we aren't looking at euro runs while precip is falling 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Hrr continues to show 4-6" here, but an inch of that happens in the next few hours, and it's not going to change over and accumulate for a while yet.. NWS 9am had Bel Air 11" forecast. I don't see that verifying, maybe 4-5" here. 

[Steckstacks]

Been snowing steadily in Martinsburg WV, since 9am. Only sticking to grass, temps marginal. Should have a couple inches by now if it was a little colder.


.

[midatlanticweather]

Just rain here in Purcellville. It is probably just too light. Temp is up to 36.4 as well. 

 

 

[Weather Will]

The official NWS forecast for my area is for 3-6 inches. I will be more patient and see if I get 3 on the lawn by am.  Lived in the DMV a long time, had a lot of 35 degree rain storms that were supposed to be snow.

[snowfan]

[MillvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

That reminds me of (I think) 2006 where we had off and on snizzle all day and were thinking bust, then rates picked up right at sunset and we got heavy, wet snow for several hours.  Hoping for that tonight!

That storm will not be repeated here, but similar premise! Upper levels will improve for these parts in the evening. That's when you'll see more banding structures and things begin to pick up. 

[GreyHat]

Magnolia 

Temp drop another degree to 34F normal size snow flakes now

[mob1]

Radar returns look soooooo much better southwest of DC over the last 30 minutes. 

[snowfan]

Someone with access to kuchera to take it from here, but even the euro shows surface temps scorching into the evening. 
 

[pazzo83]

regardless of the snow - we have quietly gotten several inches of precip over the past few weeks.  Helping big time.

[MillvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Respectful question. Not trying to be critical just trying to understand rationale. My forecast is 5-10”. But it’s clear it’s too warm today and snow won’t start to stick until after 4pm or so.  And the forecast kinda indicates this. But it’s also been clear to me there won’t be enough QPF to reach those totals if we lose all the precip today!  I’ve been doing this math for 24 hours now and not getting it because the model runs that showed 5-10” also snowed 3-5” of that falling today right now!  And the runs that didn’t only have me getting 3-5” not 5-10. There has never been anything that shows no snow until this evening AND 5-10”. There isn’t enough qpf left after 5pm for that. I only see about .3-.4 qpf across guidance after 5pm. 
 

So I guess I’m confused. What’s the thinking on the 5-10” forecast with all the snow coming tonight when everything I see indicates half the storm is over by then and only .3-.4 qpf left tonight up here. 

Fair question, and tbh, that's a question for the Sterling WFO. WPC actually does our own snow forecast and we've been lower than they have for this one for our neck of the woods. I have had you around 6-9" when I forecasted last 3 days. We coordinate on things, but the end of the day, the snowfall forecasts are the WFO's for their respective CWA's and they can refer to ours for cohesiveness. You put 10 meteorologists into a room and you'll get 11 forecasts. It's been a tough one outside NJ/LI/Mass since they are getting creamed no matter what. Btw, we have between 0.5-0.6" for your area after the flip with ~6-6.5" of snow accumulation, so could very well hit the lower half of the forecast, but probably a safer forecast with 4-8" for your hood. That's just my 2cents. Hopefully we get hit good for 4-6 hrs before things wind down. Going to be really nice dendrites with this one. 

[Jake Wx]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Someone with access to kuchera to take it from here, but even the euro shows surface temps scorching into the evening. 
 

 

[JakkelWx]

radar returns starting to move due north. NNW soon

[blizzardmeiser]

1 minute ago, Jake Wx said:

 

Folks panicking and cutting snow totals based on latest trends.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Someone with access to kuchera to take it from here, but even the euro shows surface temps scorching into the evening. 
 

Comparing apples to apples.

[Jake Wx]

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

radar returns starting to move due north. NNW soon

yea radar sw of dc fillling in and moving nnw 

[lazywxwatcher]

Really respect the pro mets around here.  Very challenging forecasting these east coast storms.  They affect millions of people and 30miles or a degree or 2 can blow a forecast...

I might suggest relocating the the sierra where the forecast is either for nothing or for feet of snow all winter.  Hard to imagine anyone getting too upset with you if your 3-4feet of snow forecast busts high or low by a foot or 2.  No one probably notices or even cares.  And there are few people there to give a crap.  

Just a suggestion...

[CAPE]

One pic before I have to go spend the rest of the storm at work lol

[Eskimo Joe]

31 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Everything is going as planned. Accums won't really start for another 3-5 hrs, especially after sunset. Temps will drop to near and below freezing and rates will increase. The ULL formation to our south has not even started yet. Hours to go before the good stuff. Go out, grab a bite, have a drink or two, relax, take a nap, celebrate the USA Gold, then enjoy snow falling later. It'll do what it's going to do. Everyone stay safe, especially our Delmarva brethren. 

Finally, a voice of reason.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing apples to apples.

That would honestly be kinda lame here given the hype and frankly I doubt all of that will even stick lol.