2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[AmericanWxFreak]

2/22-23 First and Final Call Forecast from the JV Team
Hopefully, the maps are pretty self-explanatory. This has been a very dynamic, tough-to-forecast storm. There have been many factors in which small changes upstream have led to large changes downstream. 
The GFS has undoubtedly crushed all the other models on this storm, but it was not enough to give us the HECS we were all looking for, just missing us and slamming New England. Still, a substantial snowfall is on the table and is poised to break the curse of late-February in DMV winters.
Precipitation will start at approximately 4-5 AM, gradually increasing in intensity. This precipitation will start as cold rain for most areas, with temperatures generally around 35 to 40. As we get into the late morning hours, however, a transition to a rain/snow mix will occur before changing to all snow in the mid-afternoon. But any snow that falls before 5 PM will struggle to accumulate, due to still-marginal temperatures (between 34 and 38) and a stronger February sun angle. As we get into the nighttime hours, precipitation will ramp up as the surface gets colder, likely hovering around 32. This is due to the deepening low, which will intensify rapidly. There will be two main bands during this. A norlun trough band west of the fall line and a larger CCB band mainly east of the fall line. Both of these bands will feature a much fluffier snow at a ratio of 12:1 or more, with snowfall rates between 1-2” per hour. There will likely be a subsidence zone that receives much less than the surrounding areas due to the banding. 
Precipitation should exit the area Monday morning, leaving a beautiful, clingy, late-winter-esque wet snow on the ground. We will refer to it as the slop storm that could, but New England will refer to it as the Blizzard of ‘26.
This system was extremely hard to forecast and an extreme roller coaster ride. But it’s happening soon. Thank you all for tolerating me on this journey, and let’s get buried!

Solid map, I’m mostly in agreement. The hoco death band will not be happening with this one.

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Storm starts in like 12hrs or less. Is there going to be an obs thread or is this it? 

There is one

 

 

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

21z SREF mean 

Looks about the same despite lows closer to coast. Interesting. Kinda goes to the other poster’s point that none of the shifts really seem to be making significant changes happen at the surface.

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Think I’ll see more than 4-6” but hey whatever happens happens 

It’s a good attempt at a map but the 4-6” zone stretching from DC into PA is a complete joke. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Interstate said:

There is one

 

 

That’s a banter thread not an obs thread 

[JakkelWx]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Looks about the same despite lows closer to coast. Interesting. Kinda goes to the other poster’s point that none of the shifts really seem to be making significant changes happen at the surface.

wouldn't say that, it's actually the snowiest mean yet.
 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

That’s a banter thread not an obs thread 

Can a mod added Obs to the banter thread

[Kevin Reilly]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Can't get much better than that. Amazing.

lol there’s a center on land at Dennis Twp Cape May County won’t that weaken the hurricane lol.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Unreal how this just keeps trending NW. 

Considering 1/25 kept pushing warm mids north until north of Harrisburg had sleet, it's possible imho.

[snowmagnet]

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

wouldn't say that, it's actually the snowiest mean yet.
 

The red is going further west. Do we trust the SREF's?

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

2/22-23 First and Final Call Forecast from the JV Team

Hopefully, the maps are pretty self-explanatory. This has been a very dynamic, tough-to-forecast storm. There have been many factors in which small changes upstream have led to large changes downstream. 

The GFS has undoubtedly crushed all the other models on this storm, but it was not enough to give us the HECS we were all looking for, just missing us and slamming New England. Still, a substantial snowfall is on the table and is poised to break the curse of late-February in DMV winters.

Precipitation will start at approximately 4-5 AM, gradually increasing in intensity. This precipitation will start as cold rain for most areas, with temperatures generally around 35 to 40. As we get into the late morning hours, however, a transition to a rain/snow mix will occur before changing to all snow in the mid-afternoon. But any snow that falls before 5 PM will struggle to accumulate, due to still-marginal temperatures (between 34 and 38) and a stronger February sun angle. As we get into the nighttime hours, precipitation will ramp up as the surface gets colder, likely hovering around 32. This is due to the deepening low, which will intensify rapidly. There will be two main bands during this. A norlun trough band west of the fall line and a larger CCB band mainly east of the fall line. Both of these bands will feature a much fluffier snow at a ratio of 12:1 or more, with snowfall rates between 1-2” per hour. There will likely be a subsidence zone that receives much less than the surrounding areas due to the banding. 

Precipitation should exit the area Monday morning, leaving a beautiful, clingy, late-winter-esque wet snow on the ground. We will refer to it as the slop storm that could, but New England will refer to it as the Blizzard of ‘26.

This system was extremely hard to forecast and an extreme roller coaster ride. But it’s happening soon. Thank you all for tolerating me on this journey, and let’s get buried!

Not bad, but.. opacity lol

[WxUSAF]

@Maestrobjwa make an obs thread

[bncho]

Just now, CAPE said:

Not bad, but.. opacity lol

I have no idea how to fix that in Google Drawings lol. I've been trying to figure out a work around but haven't found one yet.

[H2O]

34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah I’ve noticed even with better runs, DC totals still stay the same.  I’m prob gonna sit this one out. 

The drop off in snow from DC to the S and SW is just too strong to ignore. I know my area and will underperform in the better set ups. So going with lower totals here as deform, IVT and general good rates won’t be here. Yay heat 

[LP08]

Can the SREFs be right just once in their lifetime? 

[baltosquid]

Just now, LP08 said:

Can the SREFs be right just once in their lifetime? 

Not counting on them to be right but like the data point that mesos have room to go bigger. Better to have it snowy than not...

[AmericanWxFreak]

And yet...these "improvements" don't seem to be changing much for Balt/DC. Snow maps still end up looking the same while improving west.

Heard yah the first time pal.

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

I have no idea how to fix that in Google Drawings lol. I've been trying to figure out a work around but haven't found one yet.

Use AI

[Nomz]

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

2/22-23 First and Final Call Forecast from the JV Team

Hopefully, the maps are pretty self-explanatory. This has been a very dynamic, tough-to-forecast storm. There have been many factors in which small changes upstream have led to large changes downstream. 

The GFS has undoubtedly crushed all the other models on this storm, but it was not enough to give us the HECS we were all looking for, just missing us and slamming New England. Still, a substantial snowfall is on the table and is poised to break the curse of late-February in DMV winters.

Precipitation will start at approximately 4-5 AM, gradually increasing in intensity. This precipitation will start as cold rain for most areas, with temperatures generally around 35 to 40. As we get into the late morning hours, however, a transition to a rain/snow mix will occur before changing to all snow in the mid-afternoon. But any snow that falls before 5 PM will struggle to accumulate, due to still-marginal temperatures (between 34 and 38) and a stronger February sun angle. As we get into the nighttime hours, precipitation will ramp up as the surface gets colder, likely hovering around 32. This is due to the deepening low, which will intensify rapidly. There will be two main bands during this. A norlun trough band west of the fall line and a larger CCB band mainly east of the fall line. Both of these bands will feature a much fluffier snow at a ratio of 12:1 or more, with snowfall rates between 1-2” per hour. There will likely be a subsidence zone that receives much less than the surrounding areas due to the banding. 

Precipitation should exit the area Monday morning, leaving a beautiful, clingy, late-winter-esque wet snow on the ground. We will refer to it as the slop storm that could, but New England will refer to it as the Blizzard of ‘26.

This system was extremely hard to forecast and an extreme roller coaster ride. But it’s happening soon. Thank you all for tolerating me on this journey, and let’s get buried!

Is the JV team just you? lol.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Is the JV team just you? lol.

It's ok, he leads a double life.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's ok, he leads a double life.

I have to act like a normal kid while PBPing the 12z Euro during lunch 

[TSSN+]

17 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

wouldn't say that, it's actually the snowiest mean yet.
 

He’s a weenie 

[CAPE]

I hadnt seen this since they updated..bullish

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Considering 1/25 kept pushing warm mids north until north of Harrisburg had sleet, it's possible imho.

Anything is possible with this models anymore. Our early December snow looks like 4-6” a day out and that went to crap real fast inside 12hrs as it shifted nw 

[SnowGolfBro]

10 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Can the SREFs be right just once in their lifetime? 

Why not? There’s a first time for everything.

[BristowWx]

14 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Can the SREFs be right just once in their lifetime? 

No no it can’t 

[aldie 22]

Storms like this i always think of the old days when would always say...tge heaviest snow always ends up further northwest than modeled...shut up dummy 

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I hadnt seen this since they updated..bullish

Gimme dat orange or red

[Miss Pixee]

Ohtay. We're off and running...

 

[Ji]

Ohtay. We're off and running...
 

What’s this ?