2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[bncho]

Who is ready to wake up to heavy rain tomorrow?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Wxtrix said:

it’s a huge improvement for me and a bunch of other people though.

Yeah I know. Imby sport of course...

[NVAwx]

This is why I'm losing what middling enthusiasm I had for this. I don't care how tucked it is--if the coastal moisture isn't getting here I'm not interested because the norlun thing is for the elevations. 4" slop is not exciting.

Okay. Then stop posting for a couple hours if you can’t handle the model to model changes and nuances in your front yard.
Enjoy the full experience and wait it out before jumping ship.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I know. Imby sport of course...

Move to Towson or Owings Mills and you'll have infinitely better snow climo. Miles matter down here.

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Who is ready to wake up to heavy rain tomorrow?

Me. Currently 56/27 after a high of 63. 

But in all seriousness I hope this works out well for you all. I love heavy, wet snow that sticks to everything. Reminds me of the January 2022 storm, during which I was in Fredericksburg, VA. 

[jayyy]

Confirmed. Going chasing for this one. Asbury Park, NJ

[WxMan1]

Hey, we have an interesting analog! Feb 6-7, 1978. Very similar in terms of track and rate of deepening with the low along the coast. Certainly a top 10 storm for BOS... perhaps this will be one as well. 

Interesting to see the snow totals around our area during the storm. 

DCA 2.2"

BWI 9.1"

3 NNW Upper Marlboro 6.5"

Certainly a colder storm, but we could very well see sharp discrepancies in snow totals W-E with our storm tomorrow into Monday morning.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You have no idea how bad I want that to be right, but it’s SLR’s are just too high for this storm. However, it’s QPF is very nice and even with lower SLR’s for this area, it’s one hell of a storm. Insane printout there. 

How does the NBM para compare?

[baltosquid]

SREF mean moving west again lol... money frame was hr39 at 12z. Need the next frame at 18z to compare.

[Jake Wx]

21z sref, jesus....

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Confirmed. Going chasing for this one. Asbury Park, NJ

I was hoping Delaware because it’s easy, but im leaning NJ a little bit. Vineland.

[jayyy]

Woof, someone post the maps I’m on my phone but the SREF is TUCKED with a lot of western members.

[Jake Wx]

Just now, jayyy said:

Woof, someone post the maps I’m on my phone but the SREF is TUCKED with a lot of western members.

Means nam will be good 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Jake Wx said:

21z sref, jesus....

Can't get much better than that. Amazing.

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Hey, we have an interesting analog! Feb 6-7, 1978. Very similar in terms of track and rate of deepening with the low along the coast. Certainly a top 10 storm for BOS... perhaps this will be one as well. 

Interesting to see the snow totals around our area during the storm. 

DCA 2.2"

BWI 9.1"

3 NNW Upper Marlboro 6.5"

Certainly a colder storm, but we could very well see sharp discrepancies in snow totals W-E with our storm tomorrow into Monday morning.

What an amazing storm from my youth! Lived just west of AC, NJ! Almost 10 years old-it ...just..kept...snowing!

[jayyy]

I was hoping Delaware because it’s easy, but im leaning NJ a little bit. Vineland.

Very solid choice. Anywhere from Vineland to asbury park to Long Island and coastal New England is PRIME real estate for this.

I am originally from the tristate area. Lived there nearly 3 decades. This is a CLASSIC double barrel low that bombs out and demolishes the NYC area. It doesn’t get much more textbook than this for them. My best guess from seeing these setups countless times is the jackpot falls somewhere between Toms River NJ and Brentwood on Long Island (western Suffolk county) Someone in that zone will likely exceed 24”

[Scraff]

42 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Who said this was good???  It’s trending the wrong way today. Looks like a classic Niña screw job now.

What kind of cheese you having with your whine? 

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

How does the NBM para compare?

It’s better with ratios, but can still run a little high for these kinds of marginal airmass setups. It had a monster output too, so in all honesty, it’s going to come down to dynamical hi-res now and placement of banding. After 21z tomorrow, everyone will start watching the radar blossom then all hell will break loose. It’s going to be fun to watch. 

[AlexD1990]

7 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

21z sref, jesus....

If I look up at the right time I'll get to see the giant L In the sky! 

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I was hoping Delaware because it’s easy, but im leaning NJ a little bit. Vineland.

Booo!!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Can't get much better than that. Amazing.

Woof, keep trending this thing til it’s pouring rain in ocean city. 

[stormtracker]

22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This would be as amazing time as ever to go grab a nice Cajun seafood dinner, sip on something cold to drink and light up the fattest, sticky ickiest blunt ever and just enjoy the winter evening down there. 

That’s the plan tonight 

[TSSN+]

Storm starts in like 12hrs or less. Is there going to be an obs thread or is this it? 

[Snowman.]

21z SREF mean 

[Jersey Andrew]

10 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Hey, we have an interesting analog! Feb 6-7, 1978. Very similar in terms of track and rate of deepening with the low along the coast. Certainly a top 10 storm for BOS... perhaps this will be one as well. 

Interesting to see the snow totals around our area during the storm. 

DCA 2.2"

BWI 9.1"

3 NNW Upper Marlboro 6.5"

Certainly a colder storm, but we could very well see sharp discrepancies in snow totals W-E with our storm tomorrow into Monday morning.

This does not seem like a DC special but 2/12/2006 gives me hope. DC gets light snow in afternoon amounting to an inch and storm bust is called on EasternWX. Then around midnight thunder and lightning strike NOVA suburbs and wake up to a foot of snow and trees down.

[bncho]

2/22-23 First and Final Call Forecast from the JV Team

Hopefully, the maps are pretty self-explanatory. This has been a very dynamic, tough-to-forecast storm. There have been many factors in which small changes upstream have led to large changes downstream. 

The GFS has undoubtedly crushed all the other models on this storm, but it was not enough to give us the HECS we were all looking for, just missing us and slamming New England. Still, a substantial snowfall is on the table and is poised to break the curse of late-February in DMV winters.

Precipitation will start at approximately 4-5 AM, gradually increasing in intensity. This precipitation will start as cold rain for most areas, with temperatures generally around 35 to 40. As we get into the late morning hours, however, a transition to a rain/snow mix will occur before changing to all snow in the mid-afternoon. But any snow that falls before 5 PM will struggle to accumulate, due to still-marginal temperatures (between 34 and 38) and a stronger February sun angle. As we get into the nighttime hours, precipitation will ramp up as the surface gets colder, likely hovering around 32. This is due to the deepening low, which will intensify rapidly. There will be two main bands during this. A norlun trough band west of the fall line and a larger CCB band mainly east of the fall line. Both of these bands will feature a much fluffier snow at a ratio of 12:1 or more, with snowfall rates between 1-2” per hour. There will likely be a subsidence zone that receives much less than the surrounding areas due to the banding. 

Precipitation should exit the area Monday morning, leaving a beautiful, clingy, late-winter-esque wet snow on the ground. We will refer to it as the slop storm that could, but New England will refer to it as the Blizzard of ‘26.

This system was extremely hard to forecast and an extreme roller coaster ride. But it’s happening soon. Thank you all for tolerating me on this journey, and let’s get buried!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Storm starts in like 12hrs or less. Is there going to be an obs thread or is this it? 

45/28 waiting for my snowstorm 

[Wetbulbs88]

36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So 3" to 4" (and 4" to 5" in DC)? While west of here doubles? That's not improvement. Haven't been in the pinks or purples on the euro all day.

Cool then stop tracking it. 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

21z SREF mean 

Unreal how this just keeps trending NW. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

2/22-23 First and Final Call Forecast from the JV Team

Hopefully, the maps are pretty self-explanatory. This has been a very dynamic, tough-to-forecast storm. There have been many factors in which small changes upstream have led to large changes downstream. 

The GFS has undoubtedly crushed all the other models on this storm, but it was not enough to give us the HECS we were all looking for, just missing us and slamming New England. Still, a substantial snowfall is on the table and is poised to break the curse of late-February in DMV winters.

Precipitation will start at approximately 4-5 AM, gradually increasing in intensity. This precipitation will start as cold rain for most areas, with temperatures generally around 35 to 40. As we get into the late morning hours, however, a transition to a rain/snow mix will occur before changing to all snow in the mid-afternoon. But any snow that falls before 5 PM will struggle to accumulate, due to still-marginal temperatures (between 34 and 38) and a stronger February sun angle. As we get into the nighttime hours, precipitation will ramp up as the surface gets colder, likely hovering around 32. This is due to the deepening low, which will intensify rapidly. There will be two main bands during this. A norlun trough band west of the fall line and a larger CCB band mainly east of the fall line. Both of these bands will feature a much fluffier snow at a ratio of 12:1 or more, with snowfall rates between 1-2” per hour. There will likely be a subsidence zone that receives much less than the surrounding areas due to the banding. 

Precipitation should exit the area Monday morning, leaving a beautiful, clingy, late-winter-esque wet snow on the ground. We will refer to it as the slop storm that could, but New England will refer to it as the Blizzard of ‘26.

This system was extremely hard to forecast and an extreme roller coaster ride. But it’s happening soon. Thank you all for tolerating me on this journey, and let’s get buried!

Think I’ll see more than 4-6” but hey whatever happens happens 

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Woof, keep trending this thing til it’s pouring rain in ocean city. 

This is definitely something I’ve been watching for our big total hopes. You need  to rain on a decent portion of the eastern shore for at least part of the storm.