February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[MickeyTim6533]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Peter Mullinax

 

@wxmvpete

 

AM thoughts before 12Z guidance comes in- it is possible we never see guidance come into agreement on a uniform solution. Frankly, it is rare that happens anyway. The meteorology says a rapidly deepening mid-upper low off the coast favors areas along & east of I-95 especially...

[Kevin Reilly]

11 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Precip looks like scattered thunderstorms on a radar during summer 

[MickeyTim6533]

MA forum saying GFS east

[Redryan5]

Hurricane Scrwartz is live right now in case anyone is interested. Talking about it being a hard-to-predict Miller B. Seems to be grasping that this is a big one but still uncertain (Im not an expert, just sharing because I know people have been asking where he currently is with this storm)


https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1F5Uxeb1U7/

[Blue Dream]

Just now, MickeyTim6533 said:

MA forum saying GFS east

We don’t live in Washington DC

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

MA forum saying GFS east

For them, yes. For this subforum it’s essentially the same.

[Blue Dream]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

For them, yes. For this subforum it’s essentially the same.

Looks good to me! 

[The Iceman]

3 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

MA forum saying GFS east

I literally hope everyone except you sees snow.

[MickeyTim6533]

clearly shifted east though

[Blue Dream]

Just now, MickeyTim6533 said:

clearly shifted east though

Can you take this shtick to banter?  Being kind of a buzz kill this morning. 

[Newman]

Yeah GFS is a tick east but it's just noise at this point. There will be a deep 700mb fronto band on the NW side of this thing that models will not pin down at all. Right now the meso models/GFS have Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Chester as the far western edge of that. It could be east of that, or west. There will be a sharp cutoff

[KYWSchoolClosings4ever]

Can you take this shtick to banter?  Being kind of a buzz kill this morning. 

He won’t stop. It literally ruins the experience for us lurkers.


.

[ChescoWx]

As expected the GFS is starting to tighten the western side of this. 

 

[Redryan5]

2 minutes ago, KYWSchoolClosings4ever said:

He won’t stop. It literally ruins the experience for us lurkers.


.

I think he called "curtains" three times this week on this storm. So I view most of his negative posting as a positive sign.

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

Can you take this shtick to banter?  Being kind of a buzz kill this morning. 

He does this same thing in 3 different forums. He's been asked to stop repeatedly and refuses to do so.

Funky, when everything was trending well yesterday he was largely silent. Of course he's active again today.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I caught, in passing, 101.5 saying 12-20 inches in some parts on NJ.

[Heisy]

Mickey the models are just converging now. Relax bub it’s going to snow

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z AIGFS

[Redryan5]

Hurricane Schwartz just said 8-12" for 95 corridor. Says still a lot of uncertainty around where the heaviest bands will be. Low is far enough off the shore that heavy snow and wind at the shore is almost a certainty.

[pl0k00n111]

Can he be 5 posted? That used to be a thing I believe. 

[MGorse]

Good morning. Winter storm still there I see. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z GFS to see the low behavior (which is maybe why Hurricane Schwartz was Miller B-ing this).  I know that this is really not the GFS's range and forte though.

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, MGorse said:

Good morning. Winter storm still there I see. 

And you are "closer" to it then some of us. 

[penndotguy]

4 minutes ago, pl0k00n111 said:

Can he be 5 posted? That used to be a thing I believe. 

I’ve clicked the ignore option and don’t see his posts but when folks quote him it shows up. Just stop quoting him 

[Chadzachadam]

1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

12z GFS to see the low behavior (which is maybe why Hurricane Schwartz was Miller B-ing this).  I know that this is really not the GFS's range and forte though.

was curious about it being called a Miller B. doesn't really look like a B to my eye, seems like the southern wave digs down into NC whereas B would mean it originates in the Ohio Valley right?

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Redryan5 said:

Hurricane Schwartz just said 8-12" for 95 corridor. Says still a lot of uncertainty around where the heaviest bands will be. Low is far enough off the shore that heavy snow and wind at the shore is almost a certainty.

That guy on FB you linked isnt hurricane Schwartz BTW thats noreaster nick 

[JTA66]

28 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

We don’t live in Washington DC

He seems to think he’s the only one with access to the MA forum  

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

was curious about it being called a Miller B. doesn't really look like a B to my eye, seems like the southern wave digs down into NC whereas B would mean it originates in the Ohio Valley right?

I guess we are so used to "Miller Bs" being visible in our region but it looks like it is happening further south.  I generated a map for the MA region (the other was the Northeast one) and you can see the funky things going on (like it wanted to be a "Miller A" but ran aground instead). 

[Voyager]

16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

12z AIGFS

The bummer on that view is that the low seems to follow the coast line. If only it stayed in tight right up into Long Island and Connecticut.

It still nails this forum good, but it would help me up in the coal region where I'm riding the sharp cut-off/gradient.

[MGorse]

Well, I have been called into work tomorrow. Good times to be had!