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About zenmsav6810

  • Birthday June 18

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Douglassville, PA 19518
  • Interests
    Mechanical Engineering, Computation Science and Modeling, Golf, Skiing, Biomechanics Research

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  1. Can't believe I'm saying this so soon: What does the sounding look like for tonight!?
  2. Jeez almighty the world is ending supercyclones, lunatics with nukes , wildfires in Oregon and now quakes in Mexico and rumblings in Yellowstone.
  3. Bold or foolish? Further south than Isabel mind you.
  4. Classic NAM. Of course it tends to figure out these big, crazy, tricky, no-one-knows storms right every once in a while... thats why they keep it around. I modified my forecast from Hatteras slightly south to Cape Lookout (thats where ground zero will be). It will likely make land fall as a strong cat3. I think there are possibilities for this to develop into an annular hurricane due to this dry air mass over Florida. I'm thinking 2003 Isabel is the best analog.
  5. This is a common disagreement in the MET community the definition isn't set in stone. The academic literature describes an annular cyclone as meeting the following criteria: 1. A tropical cyclone that maintains either an average or above average eye 2. An eyewall surrounding the eye containing deep convection 3. An apparent "lack of convection occurring outside of the central dense overcast for at least three hours." Signs of such a cyclone are the following: 1. storm intensity is about 75% (or more) of the maximum potential intensity 2. eyewall replacement happens in an ocean with sea surface temperatures between 77°F – 83 °F 3. presence of eyewall mesovortices Remember I'm saying this is a potential development... it isn't there yet. To you point the IR show this as a pretty round storm. Also I'm not sure if I'm the only person on here that sees this but it's currently a cat 5 storm. Annular IR imagery examples I think Isabel is a good analog for this storm...its image is fourth from left top row. Isabel was an angular hurricane.
  6. Damn its late (reading emails at the same time) ...cape lookout for crying out loud!! ugh... sorry about that folks now that I ruined any credibility I had. annular configurations are used to describe storms that don't have a large percip shield and only have one eyewall with a large eye. Part of my thinking here is that fact we haven't really seen an eyewall replacement de-intensification yet. I think there is going to be a weird interaction with this dry airmass over Florida.
  7. I still maintain my model mayhem prediction: Cape Outlook makes landfall on sunday or monday as a strong category 3 ... more of an intense annular configuration.
  8. source?
  9. south is probably good for reducing intensity. more impact for cuba, but cuba is in a better position to take the brunt.
  10. Probably a best case scenario in terms of outcome. A glancing hit, with no one taking the full on hit probably creates widespread damage and flooding but nothing gets truly wiped off the map. Reminds me of a Matthew like outcome. Best to keep this in the state of Florida, which outside of Maimi-- is the best prepared state. I think the Carolinas will be ground zero. Ancient history tells us tales of Cat 5's hitting Cape outlook.
  11. Wow-- this joint is all bummed out over a lackluster squaw line and ignoring the elephant in the room IRMA IRMA IRMA!!!I still think there is a chance for Irma to make landfall in North Carolina, maybe not as far north as Hatteras but Lookout and Oakaroke are in trouble. Fire and fury like the world has never seen. I really think this storm could make Harvey look like small peanuts if it hits the right place. The soundings are just incredible for this storm, 913mb 225mph at 500 feet. 200mph sustained at a 100ft.
  12. I gave the call to the family last night: Hatteras-- direct hit september 10th.
  13. Looks like a "battleship sinker" to me.
  14. about 30 seconds of pea size hail in Douglassville.
  15. Way warmer today than modeled.