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zenmsav6810

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About zenmsav6810

  • Birthday June 18

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Douglassville, PA 19518
  • Interests
    Mechanical Engineering, Computation Science and Modeling, Golf, Skiing, Biomechanics Research

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  1. Sorry, I've been away. I'm writing this storm off as interesting and good experience from an understanding point of view. Last night was pretty foggy coming home from Bear Creek (BCMR) indicative of our CAD which I think was a factor with our front end thump (our "mountains" just aren't tall enough. A slight wind blew on the hill indicating the approaching front at about 2:45 pm, lasting about 5minutes at 7-9 mph. I left Macungie at 8pm we had 2" and it was still snowing (30F). When I got to Boyertown at 8:35pm it was sleet (31F), Douglassville was freezing rain at 8:55pm (only 1" of sleet/snow had fallen) (31F), South Pottstown at 9:10 pm was straight rain only .5" had fallen (32F). I spent nearly the whole day outside teaching so I really got a feel for how this style events busts. CAD's are curious to witness on the ground.
  2. zenmsav6810

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    get him screws instead... at least you can kinda go backwards then.
  3. zenmsav6810

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    Here's the formula for CAD detection, . From Wikipedia: "This algorithm is used to identify the specific type of CAD events based on the surface pressure ridge, its associated cold dome, and ageostrophic northeasterly flow which flows at a significant angle to the isobaric pattern. These values are calculated using hourly data from surface weather observations. The Laplacian of sea level pressure or potential temperature in the mountain-normal—perpendicular to the mountain chain—direction provides a quantitative measure of the intensity of a pressure ridge or associated cold dome. The detection algorithm is based upon Laplacians () evaluated for three mountain-normal lines constructed from surface observations in and around the area affected by the cold air damming—the damming region. The "x" denotes either sea level pressure or potential temperature (θ) and the subscripts 1–3 denote stations running from west to east along the line, while the "d" represents the distance between two stations. Negative Laplacian values are typically associated with pressure maxima at the center station, while positive Laplacian values usually correspond to colder temperatures in the center of the section.[13] Map of the labeled weather stations in the Southeastern US that are suitable for use in the CAD detection algorithm" I'm sure there is a model out there somewhere to look at just this
  4. zenmsav6810

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    T-storms were fun until one of them bit me on the toe. May 22nd, 2015...
  5. zenmsav6810

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    Burbs had one after 2016 blizzard
  6. zenmsav6810

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    clinging to the NAM... I thought only amateurs did that. NAM 3k is solid cold through surface-mids-uppers down through virgnia. What does the Euro say?
  7. zenmsav6810

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    NWS claim 3-6.5" imby
  8. zenmsav6810

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    I'm signed up to instruct tonight and then 36 hrs the rest of the holiday weekend in a synoptic rain storm... uhg
  9. zenmsav6810

    Winter 2018-19 Banter Thread

    2016 might be an all time great for me (who could forget the NAM 'em for real on the 18z on the eve of the storm). My folks didn't believe me when I told them KYW was going to bust low with 18". I hope I get a few more like it in my life.
  10. zenmsav6810

    Jan 17-18 Light Snow OBS

    First signs of optimism we've seen from you in weeks! Congrats cars covered now.
  11. zenmsav6810

    Winter 2018-19 Banter Thread

    Second time this winter I believe.
  12. zenmsav6810

    Jan 17-18 Light Snow OBS

    In the bleak mid winter, Snow had fallen, Snow on snow on snow
  13. zenmsav6810

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    I have a sneaking feeling this ends up colder than modeled. Models don't show wide spread agreement at any level thermodynamically. CMC shows torched out 850's, cold as stone uppers, and borderline surfaces. Maybe we should root for radiational cooling instead of snow tonight...
  14. zenmsav6810

    Jan 17-18 Light Snow OBS

    NOTHIN'!
  15. zenmsav6810

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    I actually think the ZR risk is over modeled, when the ice in sandwiched with snow I notice that real world takes some of the ZR qpf and turns it into sleet. ZR only happens in absolutely perfect ZR condition... to warm and it LR to cold and its Sleet. Modeling has shifted away from the classical blowout ice storm analogs. I think '07 VD is a more likely situation than a '94 or even Feb '14 ice storm. Overall the drama of this storm is over exaggerated due to winter of snore feelings by us amateurs. I think it will be 4-6" in Pottstown with plenty of sleet and 8-12" up at Bear Creek.
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