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About zenmsav6810

  • Birthday June 18

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Douglassville, PA 19518
  • Interests
    Mechanical Engineering, Computation Science and Modeling, Golf, Skiing, Biomechanics Research

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  1. January 16-18 Threat

    Looks pretty clumpy is this a numerical issue with the CMC rearing its ugly head again? Nice thunking though for the Poconos and Bucks County though!!
  2. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    Speaking of atmospheric change... I read new peer-reviewed research that efforts to ban CFC aerosols have demonstrably led to a closing of the hole in the ozone layer, I think that's something that we can all get behind: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/11/03/the-earths-ozone-hole-is-shrinking-and-is-the-smallest-its-been-since-1988/?utm_term=.486584510267
  3. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    I prefer the term "atmospheric composition change syndrome." Regardless of the weather, adding more Co2 to the atmosphere must be screwing something up! Whether its global average temperature, calcification of the ocean, sea level rise, fish populations in rivers... all of life on Earth is dependent on a delicate equilibrium of everything else. There is no less than a divine commandment to not mess it up for the rest of us.
  4. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    They should hire Ralph!
  5. Dec 9th snow

    Hopefully she won't be vengeful! Nice event for all.
  6. E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread

    I didn't feel the quake out in Finland, PA (right next to the NE extension of the PA Turnpike) where I work. We are on top of some high hills there.
  7. E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread

    It would be nice to have an earlier winter, its been awhile since we have had a solid across the region, early hit. Recent years have been heavily backloaded.
  8. E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread

    Can't believe I'm saying this so soon: What does the sounding look like for tonight!?
  9. E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2017 OBS Thread

    Jeez almighty the world is ending supercyclones, lunatics with nukes , wildfires in Oregon and now quakes in Mexico and rumblings in Yellowstone.
  10. E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2017 OBS Thread

    Bold or foolish? Further south than Isabel mind you.
  11. E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2017 OBS Thread

    Classic NAM. Of course it tends to figure out these big, crazy, tricky, no-one-knows storms right every once in a while... thats why they keep it around. I modified my forecast from Hatteras slightly south to Cape Lookout (thats where ground zero will be). It will likely make land fall as a strong cat3. I think there are possibilities for this to develop into an annular hurricane due to this dry air mass over Florida. I'm thinking 2003 Isabel is the best analog.
  12. Hurricane Irma

    This is a common disagreement in the MET community the definition isn't set in stone. The academic literature describes an annular cyclone as meeting the following criteria: 1. A tropical cyclone that maintains either an average or above average eye 2. An eyewall surrounding the eye containing deep convection 3. An apparent "lack of convection occurring outside of the central dense overcast for at least three hours." Signs of such a cyclone are the following: 1. storm intensity is about 75% (or more) of the maximum potential intensity 2. eyewall replacement happens in an ocean with sea surface temperatures between 77°F – 83 °F 3. presence of eyewall mesovortices Remember I'm saying this is a potential development... it isn't there yet. To you point the IR show this as a pretty round storm. Also I'm not sure if I'm the only person on here that sees this but it's currently a cat 5 storm. Annular IR imagery examples I think Isabel is a good analog for this storm...its image is fourth from left top row. Isabel was an angular hurricane.
  13. Hurricane Irma

    Damn its late (reading emails at the same time) ...cape lookout for crying out loud!! ugh... sorry about that folks now that I ruined any credibility I had. annular configurations are used to describe storms that don't have a large percip shield and only have one eyewall with a large eye. Part of my thinking here is that fact we haven't really seen an eyewall replacement de-intensification yet. I think there is going to be a weird interaction with this dry airmass over Florida.
  14. Hurricane Irma

    I still maintain my model mayhem prediction: Cape Outlook makes landfall on sunday or monday as a strong category 3 ... more of an intense annular configuration.
  15. Hurricane Irma