February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[Duca892]

Annnnnnd Winter Storm Watches are up and live folks!

[MickeyTim6533]

srefs south?

[The Iceman]

Latest NBM 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

srefs south?

Model noise 

[The Iceman]

3 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

srefs south?

wrong per usual.

[LVblizzard]

6 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

srefs south?

A little bit. But who cares because 1. it's not a huge shift at all, and 2. it's the SREFs.

[Newman]

Maybe a bit bold, but I told my family in Berks and Lehigh to expect 5-8" right now. I think 3-5" is safe, but I'm thinking there could be an outer fringe 700mb fronto band that surprises. Dual band type of precip shield. Would feel even more comfortable if I was NW of 95 if the closed 700 mb low passage was tucked closer to the coast.

My fear is this tries to slip east last second just based on past PTSD lol

[Duca892]

Just now, Newman said:

Maybe a bit bold, but I told my family in Berks and Lehigh to expect 5-8" right now. I think 3-5" is safe, but I'm thinking there could be an outer fringe 700mb fronto band that surprises. Dual band type of precip shield. Would feel even more comfortable if I was NW of 95 if the closed 700 mb low passage was tucked closer to the coast.

My fear is this tries to slip east last second just based on past PTSD lol

I was just telling my mom that I think 3-5in is a really good call right now for Lehigh and I am suspecting that we end up with a Winter Weather Advisory when all is said and done for that exactly. Lolipops of course of localized 6-7in in spots, but I really like 3-5in for those areas. 

[Violentweatherfan]

2 hours ago, Wxbear25 said:

The issue is how the models are handling that initial piece of energy to hit the coastline, which is the energy that spawns that “eastern low”

The models have continuously trended towards this being more meridionally oriented, and thus more closely involved with the main s/w energy, with the GFS leading the way to this point in that regard

There won’t be an “eastern low” or a “western low”, at least for any extended time there’s going to be one low, and the question is how well the big chunk of energy can rein in that front running stuff

 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS is the only model going negative tilt so fast so the low tucks in more near the coast. All the other guidance has the low consolidating a little further east and a slower negative tilt.

The GFS is usually incorrect when its coastal low is the furthest west of all the other guidance. Sometimes the Euro does the same thing.

I would probably shade toward the other guidance at this point and just broad brush the forecast to indicate that the chances for a 6”+ event near the coast are increasing and issue winter storm watches and wait until tomorrow to refine the warnings and higher end potential areas.

These are two really good posts. Especially when forecasting accumulation expectations 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
150 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-210800-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern
Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe, Allentown, Pottstown,
Chalfont, Bethlehem, Kennett Square, Collegeville, West Chester,
Lansdale, Honey Brook, Norristown, Morrisville, Media,
Doylestown, Philadelphia, Reading, Stroudsburg, Easton, Perkasie,
and Oxford
150 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow, with total snow accumulations exceeding 6
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

 

[zenmsav6810]

4 minutes ago, Newman said:

Maybe a bit bold, but I told my family in Berks and Lehigh to expect 5-8" right now. I think 3-5" is safe, but I'm thinking there could be an outer fringe 700mb fronto band that surprises. Dual band type of precip shield. Would feel even more comfortable if I was NW of 95 if the closed 700 mb low passage was tucked closer to the coast.

My fear is this tries to slip east last second just based on past PTSD lol

2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I don’t mean to be a wennie but we know this isn’t happening.  I’m not buying it still I’ll go down with the ship.  Even if everything did come together warmer grounds / 50 degrees tomorrow totals of 20-30” probably are more like 12-16” but still wow.  I’m very very interested to see how this unfolds and it’s been a very enjoyable ride of learning these model outputs with this particular set up. 

I told my work in Downingtown to expect 6-10" and I guess I'll ask the neighbor to help me shovel. 

[RedSky]

Watch posted already having March 2001 ptsd

[coastal front]

Man a lot of ptsd in here lmao. 

[Newman]

Mount Holly 90th percentile (i.e. reasonable worst case scenario)

 

[Blue Dream]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Watch posted already having March 2001 ptsd

Different setup...we'll be fine.

[LVblizzard]

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Watch posted already having March 2001 ptsd

March 2001 shifted like 200 miles north at the last minute. No chance of that happening this time around. A miss to the east is the bust scenario in this case.

[bigtenfan]

4 minutes ago, Newman said:

Mount Holly 90th percentile (i.e. reasonable worst case scenario)

 

Are there other percentile maps 50%25% ETC?

 

Thanks in advance.

[jimmosk]

2 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Are there other percentile maps 50%25% ETC?

 

Thanks in advance.

There's a 10%, 90%, and best guess, along with many maps for % chance of getting more than a certain number of inches of snow, all at https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

 

 

[coastal front]

9 minutes ago, Newman said:

Mount Holly 90th percentile (i.e. reasonable worst case scenario)

 

This is only through 7am Monday. In theory it could be higher. Speechless….

[JTA66]

12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Watch posted already having March 2001 ptsd

Can't help but have the same ptsd...some weenie scars never heal. Left work that cloudy Friday afternoon, very similar to today expecting 2-3' of snow. And then...

[Zeus]

Just now, JTA66 said:

Can't help but have the same ptsd...some weenie scars never heal. Left work that cloudy Friday afternoon, very similar to today expecting 2-3' of snow. And then...

Hey.

We don't talk about March 2001.

Thanks!

[Newman]

I know the High End snow maps can seem like weenie bait, but as an EM met they are crucial for communicating POTENTIAL impacts. In EM, we always prepare for or are staged to respond to the worst case scenario. You never want to be caught with your fly down

[MGorse]

Impressive model trends today so far. If the storm ends up being intense and closer to the coast, there will be a zone of intense upward motion/frontogenesis resulting in 2+ inches per hour snowfall rates. Winds will be an issue, but it may be a challenge to achieve blizzard conditions as the snow could be too wet. It will be interesting to see how this pans out. 

[snowwors2]

From NEPWA (or whatever their acronym is)…They’ve been EXTREMELY accurate this year‼️ 

Bucks: Snow begins 6-9am Sunday and continues at varying rates through Monday morning. Heaviest Sunday evening/overnight.

Snow: 12-16 inches

[RedSky]

Very February 25-26 2010 like storm coming a tepid low 30's snowfall 

Delivered an 11" wet paste bomb imby with 35-40mph gusts this won't drift

Though that storms impact was north of Philly it skipped the MA region if I remember right

 

[anthonyweather]

16 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

From NEPWA (or whatever their acronym is)…They’ve been EXTREMELY accurate this year‼️ 

Bucks: Snow begins 6-9am Sunday and continues at varying rates through Monday morning. Heaviest Sunday evening/overnight.

Snow: 12-16 inches

for clicks I'm sure, but do you have a photo? can't find that on Facebook

[Hurricane Agnes]

Just heard on KYW (for Birds~69) that North Wales just declared a Snow Emergency.

[snowwors2]

23 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

for clicks I'm sure, but do you have a photo? can't find that on Facebook

NOT at all…They are very accurate and generally more on the conservative side and usually upgrade more so than downgraded…

They were spot on with all three January storms‼️

What I posted was a text I received from them but you can view it online

https://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

[Newman]

18z NAM already looking much more amped

[LVblizzard]

Are y’all ready to get NAMed? 18z looks like it’ll make an attempt at it.