February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[kickingupastorm]

What’s the timing for this? When it to start, when is the heaviest rates, etc?

[Heisy]

I’m not looking forward to making a first call on my page later today. GFS has over a foot, CMC/UKMET have just a couple inches, and who knows what the Euro will show. At this point I’m confident heavy snow makes it to the Delaware River…but how far will it get into PA?

Agreed, I feel like someone in DE and Nj odds are favoring 12”+, but there’s going to be a sharp cutoff with a low deepening like this. Less wiggle room than the gfs makes you think there is.

[MJO812]

AI

[Duca892]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI

Sorry if I am wrong. Isn't this a step back from 6z EUROAI? 

[MJO812]

Just now, Duca892 said:

Sorry if I am wrong. Isn't this a step back from 6z EUROAI? 

Nope

[ChescoWx]

12z Euro AI with a push west vs 6z

 

[The Iceman]

That’s another significant tick west by the euro ai. And that’s a model that doesn’t really bounce around…. Clear trend now imo. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, ChescoWx said:

12z Euro AI with a push west vs 6z

 

Doing typical euro type stuff with the slowwwww adjustments each run rather than 1 big jump..classic. And yes, I know this is the AIFS but same family of euro

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro op looks like a complete cave to the gfs...waiting for surface map but h5 is good.

[LVblizzard]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro op looks like a complete cave to the gfs...waiting for surface map but h5 is good.

Surface doesn’t quite do it. But it’s very close. One more shift and it’s basically the GFS.

[Chadzachadam]

all hail king GFS! in all honesty though this is far from settled and the gradient will be sharp even if the coastal spins up

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro op looks like a complete cave to the gfs...waiting for surface map but h5 is good.

 

[mattinpa]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

Surface not quite like GFS yet, but with that improvement you’d think it would start showing. 

[ChescoWx]

European further east as surface with significant snows....I really still like a classic SJ Special and up through eastern LI and New England.

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Surface not quite like GFS yet, but with that improvement you’d think it would start showing. 

Yep big cave job

[The Iceman]

I thought it was a clear shift towards the GFS regardless of the surface. Still that's a warning level event for most. If the euro is the minimum, i'd still take. 

[Duca892]

I feel pretty ok throwing my hat in the ring for a 3-5in snowfall for places like Allentown, Bethlehem, Whitehall etc. Just taking all solutions into account. 

[MJO812]

This is beautiful. What an awful euro performance.

[RedSky]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro op looks like a complete cave to the gfs...waiting for surface map but h5 is good.

Totals dropped from 0z

[Lady Di]

Our poor roads!!!!!

[Lucy Pull]

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Totals dropped from 0z

Less IVT.
 

Unless this backs west like GFS there will most likely be a screw zone between coastal and IVT.

[Lucy Pull]

3 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Less IVT.
 

Unless this backs west like GFS there will most likely be a screw zone between coastal and IVT.

In saying this though….it does increase the floor if the coastal were to head further east. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

In saying this though….it does increase the floor if the coastal were to head further east. 

So a "Lucy Pull", so-to- speak?

[The Iceman]

Unreal

 

Community

 

[Kevin Reilly]

So….

Media Delaware County:

gfs 23.1”

Euro 3.7”
 

all righty then.

go ahead issue the winter storm watch for 4” or more with wind gusts to 35-40 mph  check back later.

[MickeyTim6533]

8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Unreal

 

Community

 

explain? lol

[Zeus]

Euro ensemble with a really nice shift on the 12z suite.

Still would like to see a bit more from Op and AI but headed in a good direction in general for a stronger and more impactful outcome.

[Violentweatherfan]

This has to be one of the funniest gifs I’ve seen, credit ironty from the md forum

[The Iceman]

7 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

explain? lol

Short answer, it’s closed off 500 MB low in about as perfect a spot as you want. 

[BBasile]