Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[psuhoffman]

Obviously this doesn’t matter but it took a track of the slp to the mouth of the Potomac to get the deform band back across our area. All the runs that have a bomb wind up the storm so tight it’s unusual. A track that close usually has precip type issues all the way to the blue ridge and heavy snow to state college. 

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, the mood killer will be along in an hour to bring this place into the sunken.  But what if...if showed what the GFS is showing.  This server would melt down.

I was thinking this lol. 

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don't think it ever has tbh

Jan 3rd 2022 as mentioned a little while back. That is the gold standard for reverse busts in the modern era, going from dusting Norfolk -> 8-12" DC proper at the 36-42 hour range. Nothing has come close since.

[Golf757075]

You would have thought the gefs would have shifted way east but didn't unless the gefs sucks in general also lol

[jrodd321]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

This is gonna be a good system to gauge whether the gfs is on some bs or onto something.

Yeah only a 35” difference between gfs and any other model. Should be a good enough “gauge” lmao

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

This is gonna be a good system to gauge whether the gfs is on some bs or onto something.

I know how amazing it would be but I don't even agree with this to be honest with you. It has been so so bad even if we get half the snow it's showing and it's more than the other models, it's more of a "blind squirrel" thing to me at this point. A trend is more than one lol.

[Interstate]

21 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I need a met to explain how the CMC and GFS look so similar at 500mb 90 hours but have such vastly different surface outcomes.  All the people saying "small changes" are right I think.  The position and orientation of the trough at 500 mb are almost the same. 

Here is your answer... the First one is the GFS and it is negative (pull) and the second is the CMC which positive (push)

[Jersey Andrew]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

What is the biggest move the euro has made in recent memory where it shifted to a huge solution for us instead of the usual opposite?

Boxing Day blizzard 12-26-2010 when Euro caught on to GFS and delivered a huge storm. Of course that was for NYC and New Jersey but u get the point. 2-12-2006 JMA schooled other models.

[dailylurker]

He's a visual of what that pink area the gfs printed out would look like in real life. Could you imagine this on the beltway 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Interstate said:

Here is your answer... the First one is the GFS and it is negative and the second is the CMC which positive

Ah thanks, I was looking at the 90 hour frame but yeah huge differences before that and how they arrive at their solutions. 

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Dude.  it would be hard to believe you and I drunk didn't draw that snow map.  no f-ing way that happens.  or maybe....

I don’t know man, was expecting a fold by now

[Interstate]

Just now, Solution Man said:

I don’t know man, was expecting a fold by now

Not me... this is our storm.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Obviously this doesn’t matter but it took a track of the slp to the mouth of the Potomac to get the deform band back across our area. All the runs that have a bomb wind up the storm so tight it’s unusual. A track that close usually has precip type issues all the way to the blue ridge and heavy snow to state college. 

It occludes and stacks in place. You can get snow all the way to the low location when that happens. It’s rare obviously. But what isn’t rare about a 3’ snow bomb?

[bncho]

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Ah thanks, I was looking at the 90 hour frame but yeah huge differences before that and how they arrive at their solutions. 

Even at 90... the GFS has a stacked system (Beautiful)... The CMC is still positive on the H5 (Meh)

[IUsedToHateCold]

I knew when it said there 170 responses in 30 minutes that it was a hit, but oh boy.

What sacrifices must we offer the King for it to bow to the GFS on this one? 

 

[bncho]

Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

I knew when it said there 170 responses in 30 minutes that it was a hit, but oh boy.

What sacrifices must we offer the King for it to bow to the GFS on this one? 

 

Roll your dice. We need a d20

[rjvanals]

The GFS needs massive investments since it’s a national security problem being this inaccurate at such short ranges 

[bncho]

Ji isn't here because he's on FB

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

I knew when it said there 170 responses in 30 minutes that it was a hit, but oh boy.

What sacrifices must we offer the King for it to bow to the GFS on this one? 

A Nacho and at least three red-tags.

[Interstate]

The changes start early on the Models... so it would not take much for the other models to follow suit... or for the GFS to fall apart.

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, rjvanals said:

The GFS needs massive investments since it’s a national security problem being this inaccurate at such short ranges 

In progress! @HighStakes had a post about this earlier. We have access to a lot of other models than the gfs... we just need the GFS to get fixed

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

I don’t know man, was expecting a fold by now

I mean half that amount and we are shitting ourselves.  the problem seems to be things never take just a step back at this late juncture.  they fall down the stairs with grandma's old china and the storm is 300miles off OBX at 18z.  11th hour fails are our specialty as you know.  but man...jesus...filthy is really the only  word that fits

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

The GFS needs massive investments since it’s a national security problem being this inaccurate at such short ranges 

you might be joking but.. yeah, 100%.

[IUsedToHateCold]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Roll your dice. We need a d20

Holy shit, I legit rolled a nat 20. No joke.

[MN Transplant]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, the mood killer will be along in an hour to bring this place into the sunken.  But what if...if showed what the GFS is showing.  This server would melt down.

Just waiting for the “I lost 36” from 12z” this afternoon at about 5pm.

[TomAtkins]

21 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I need a met to explain how the CMC and GFS look so similar at 500mb 90 hours but have such vastly different surface outcomes.  All the people saying "small changes" are right I think.  The position and orientation of the trough at 500 mb are almost the same. 

They aren't that different at the surface though - same with the ICON (and probably the Euro once it comes out). The GFS tucks the low in closer to land (in fact over land) and ramps up earlier. The CMC is 15 mb weaker at 90 hr, and 100 miles SE of the GFS. By hour 102 the CMC is about 5 mb stronger and maybe 75 miles or less apart. Its just the timing that makes the difference. Similar with the ICON. By the time they really ramp up, they are south of Maine. Its just that those differences of 12 hours in when the various parts that will make this system bomb out come together are super meaningful to weather we see a historic blizzard or nothing.

[Snowman.]

GEFS snow mean FWIW 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

GEFS snow mean FWIW 

Been said 1,000 times but this is going to be an unbelievable coup or horrendous bust for the entire GFS suite.

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Just waiting for the “I lost 36” from 12z” this afternoon at about 5pm.

Disastrous!  It's coming.  Because it's Ji.  But also because the GFS is going to fold or be a lot less.  It's reached peak.