“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[CoastalWx]

Yeah euro is pretty far south. 

[Bostonseminole]

EURO still not biting on big numbers up this way.

[Chrisrotary12]

Euro can kiss my ass. Shades of January 2022.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Euro sort of meh. That H7 low is awfully far southeast. Not much change from 00z/06z tho. 

Prob a Cape to SE MA/RI jackpot on that run. Still an impressive look though overall but not quite as crazy as 06z. 

[Cyclone-68]

Might have to archive this:

 

Sunday Night

Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog after midnight. Areas of freezing fog after 5am. Low around 23. Blustery, with a northeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 

Monday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Windy, with a north wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. 

Monday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Northwest wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why does anyone care what Euro shows? It didn’t have the storm 2 days ago. Who cares 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

What’s the euro qpf?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah.. the NWS has us ( you ) with the WSW and is calling for 8-13 inches.  There being conservative to say the least. 

Btw... I saw some of the nerves come out last night with some posts with the 00z runs. Of course everything's looking fine this morning. I'm truly feeling it for this.

It's easier to not have "nerves" when you don't put yourself out there with a map. I'm not trying to sound like an ass, but if you bother to put a lot of time into something like this, it' either 1) You depend on it for your livelihood ...and/or 2" Are extremely passionate about it and want to hone and display your understanding by putting forth a quality map. 

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I understand keeping it conservative at this lead time, but still that’s warning snows and likely a high impact event for some of the CWA and not even a watch yet. Just strikes me as odd. 

that map gives me 4”.  You hate to see it.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Why does anyone care what Euro shows? It didn’t have the storm 2 days ago. Who cares 

Lol you’d care if it showed 30”+ for you. I agree it’s not the North Star but it still guidance with good skill overall and you never know if it will regain its mojo as we get closer. Reggie looked like the euro too…just a little east. So it’s not like it’s by itself there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob a Cape to SE MA/RI jackpot on that run. Still an impressive look though overall but not quite as crazy as 06z. 

I wonder if we are seeing one of this on hour/off hour pattern of fluctuations again....00z/12z are more tempered, and 6z.18z more impressive.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What’s the euro qpf?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what a cave

 

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Euro sort of meh. That H7 low is awfully far southeast. Not much change from 00z/06z tho. 

What happened?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Lol you’d care if it showed 30”+ for you. I agree it’s not the North Star but it still guidance with good skill overall and you never know if it will regain its mojo as we get closer. Reggie looked like the euro too…just a little east. So it’s not like it’s by itself there. 

Shouldn’t we be going with Mesos at this point? I mean it starts in 24 hours or so 

[tiger_deF]

It's hard to fathom what winters like this are like for people who aren't weather enthusiasts. My good friend is pissed about the upcoming storm and is blowing a gasket over the prospect of shoveling out their spot, and I can't relate whatsoever. 

The amount of joy this hobby has brought me over the years is unreal. Learning about atmospheric science and forecasting, the excitement of tracking big storms, model watching and nowcasting - it's just so peak. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

What happened?

in terms of the general trough amplitude and tilt, it definitely caved to the other guidance

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS is a bit more aggressive with amounts, but the gradient is pretty similar....they aren't night and day...

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

What happened?

Too early for the messenger shuffle.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Definitely a little subdued compared to everything else. Most guidance is 2”+ liquid here and that’s like 1.5” something monitor.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

4.5".....still snowing...iced up

same over here

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I wonder what the models would've showed if 1978 happened today

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

in terms of the general trough amplitude and tilt, it definitely caved to the other guidance

Yea that’s what matters imo. I find the euro is too weak with qpf on coastals. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS is a bit more aggressive with amounts, but the gradient is pretty similar....they aren't night and day...

No, the euro is like 25% less than most other guidance. Still an incredible storm, but probably the difference between “hell of a system” and “potential all timer”

[weatherwiz]

In the past I’d be a bit concerned with the euro but given how bad it’s been and being kind of alone…not putting much weight on it. But watch it bite me in the weenie 

[tamarack]

We may or may not get anything signif9icant, but the grandkids in SNJ (about 25 miles SSE from PHL) are progged for 10-16.  With 2 decent storms already and the cold (especially Jan into Feb) they've probably had more days with snow cover of any winter since moving there in 2015.  Three years ago, their total "cover" was a flurry that turned the grass to light green.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea that’s what matters imo. I find the euro is too weak with qpf on coastals. 

WNE/NYC Metro Juno QPF has entered the chat

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

In the past I’d be a bit concerned with the euro but given how bad it’s been and being kind of alone…not putting much weight on it. But watch it bite me in the weenie 

If Skynet were in agreement I’d pause a little, but it’s not so I’m not. 

[Prismshine Productions]

5-6" even up here... Not terrible

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[DomNH]

11 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Euro can kiss my ass. Shades of January 2022.

Can someone remind me what the deal is with January 2022?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't see how there isn't insane fronto near that northern and western gradient...