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Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th


Rjay
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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It was better than 6z. However our issue is not being closer to the coast but rather the storm gaining latitude.

The biggest runs had a double low with the initial low getting to WV. Now that this low is missing the storm forms and moves ENE instead of NE. Perhaps due to the below average water temps up here.

The block is crushing it south and the ridge axis is a little too far east for us. Can these change yes, but these are two big factors that would squelch any major storm chance. 

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1 minute ago, Wxbear25 said:

Take a look at the 500 charts, this run verbatim doesn’t get us there, but the changes were marked and in the right direction overall

The entire evolution is different WRT that initial low. We need that look to come back.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It was better than 6z. However our issue is not being closer to the coast but rather the storm gaining latitude.

The biggest runs had a double low with the initial low getting to WV. Now that this low is missing the storm forms and moves ENE instead of NE. Perhaps due to the below average water temps up here.

The upper levels drive the lower levels, not the other way around.

The 6z and, to a lesser extent 00z, were further off than the 12z to being a much bigger deal up here

heights backed significantly more ahead of the system. You tilt that initial s/w ahead of the ULL more meridionally, all the Sudden you end up cutting it off 50-100 miles north and have a different story

We can work with something similar to what the 12z ICON shows, the previous few runs, not so much

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Positive trends at 6z

I see the 12z GFS is further North. I just think, given this setup at H5 that this will develop/bomb out too far offshore. The overrunning precip to our West will dry up and everything will jump offshore. This favors SNE.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I see the 12z GFS is further North. I just think, given this setup at H5 that this will develop/bomb out too far offshore. The overrunning precip to our West will dry up and everything will jump offshore. This favors SNE.

 

6995e29b14e2a.png

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

 

Yeah, and?

The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South.

Verbatim, yes.

Right now we shouldn’t care about verbatim

The upper levels improved significantly and were 4 days out. If this were happening tomorrow, sure, we could just dismiss the threat. But it aint

I take that 500mb chart and roll the dice any day of the week, it’s not far off AT ALL

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