Wednesday Feb 18 Mixed event. NoP refresher?

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Not much ice or snow to speak of for this one in CT albeit the extreme northern areas along the MA border 

Probably not correct 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Probably not correct 

I hope not

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I hope not

We should have a good feel by noon tomorrow . With that maritime low.. it argues for a continued south trend . But we’ll see

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Those are terrible maps

Realistically, They all are if you get right down to it.

[NeonPeon]

This is why it's nice to be in this horrible location for snow. Will I get no snow, or no snow? I'm going with... Well, actually, I'm driving up to the Adirondacks again. Good luck.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Nam is a tick South.  

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is pretty cold too. It’s not particularly juicy though. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

What the qpf takes away from here hopefully the cold gives back.  2-4” or 3-5” still seems likely.  

[Boston Bulldog]

Bit of a northward tickle from 12z to 0z on the GFS it appears. The differences upstream over NY state at 18z on Weds are quite shocking between the GFS and even the Euro compared to the NAM.

There’s been a very steady and now becoming quite substantial northern trend on AIFS and Euro-AI models over the past couple days. Just look at projections for 2/19 at 0z since 12z on Valentine’s Day. The N-NE extent of QPF has gone from the tristate region to CNE. The GFS has also mirrored these steady ticks over the last 48 hours. Been thinking about medium range overmodeled confluence over recent days, looks like that was indeed the case again.

What DOES give me pause on this is the NAM is getting closer to range and is doubling down on the weaker/south idea.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Bit of a northward tickle from 12z to 0z on the GFS it appears. The differences upstream over NY state at 18z on Weds are quite shocking between the GFS and even the Euro compared to the NAM.

There’s been a very steady and now becoming quite substantial northern trend on AI models over the past couple days as well. Been thinking about medium range overmodeled confluence over recent days, looks like that was indeed the case again.

Still plenty of time to steal someone’s snow 

[dendrite]

NAM is a tick north and warmer again. But I’m out of the game either way now…onto Friday here. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Snoozer here. Probably going to ruin my commute tomorrow, though

[CoastalWx]

Hoping for 1-3” of paste. 

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s where I’m at. Cold rain to paste 

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s where I’m at. Cold rain to paste 

I'm thinking 2-4" for you.  Probably 3" of wet snow

[weatherwiz]

oof this is becoming a bit ugly. Really may be Pike north for best shot at any accumulations more than a few inches...maybe CT Hills can squeak an inch or two. Such a tough forecast, the band of snow is going to be so narrow

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

oof this is becoming a bit ugly. Really may be Pike north for best shot at any accumulations more than a few inches...maybe CT Hills can squeak an inch or two. Such a tough forecast, the band of snow is going to be so narrow

Relatively low impact.  Not like the rates will be high.  DPWs won't have much issue

[Kitz Craver]

Whatever model local Mets were showing this morning had a pretty decent switch over to snow although they all hedged and said it was way overdone with that aspect 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm thinking 2-4" for you.  Probably 3" of wet snow

I could see that but think 1-3” might be better as of now 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Relatively low impact.  Not like the rates will be high.  DPWs won't have much issue

I was thinking yesterday someone could probably pull off 3-4-5" but I don't see that happening now. I mean I'm sure someone in the Berks will do it way up but looking around at forecast soundings on the 12z NAM...they absolutely blow. Much of the precip type tomorrow is probably going to be rain (we'll say rain showers because the intensities overall probably not heavy outside of a narrow area) with some sleet pellets mixing in...and some areas will bounce around between like 70-30 or 80/20 mixture and you'll probably have to get into the hills to get some mangled snow flakes mixing in. 

[Modfan2]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm thinking 2-4" for you.  Probably 3" of wet snow

Maybe the hills near Union, Woodstock, and Stafford; Tolland might see a coating

[weatherwiz]

I could see tomorrow too being a case where the radar returns are much stronger than ground truth because of the degree of bright banding we'll see taking place. 

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

What a weird system. Very narrow area that may do ok. 

[radarman]

here in the battleground area, we'll take small victories when we can... the 3km being colder than the 12km for example

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Need a last minute north bump 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a weird system. Very narrow area that may do ok. 

I wonder if this energy diving in is the make or break for multiple inches of accumulation. This is some pretty decent shortwave energy diving along with a rapid increase in the lapse rates so it becomes fairly unstable aloft. This also would support sort of a re-blossoming of precipitation downstream of it. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if this energy diving in is the make or break for multiple inches of accumulation. This is some pretty decent shortwave energy diving along with a rapid increase in the lapse rates so it becomes fairly unstable aloft. This also would support sort of a re-blossoming of precipitation downstream of it. 

Drier air working in below 700mb though. So it’s a battle.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Relatively low impact.  Not like the rates will be high.  DPWs won't have much issue

It’s going to snow pretty good for a few hours along a narrow strip. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Drier air working in below 700mb though. So it’s a battle.

Yup...going to be a tough one. Just like you said, probably be a very narrow area that may do well.