2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think so, we are still "evening out" a 27-year period of more than 50% La Nina's (RONI). And the subsurface in the west is not as cold as 1997 was at this time. You seem to think we are overdue for a Strong La Nina but I think +ENSO is the tendency going forward as it's more about the cumulative, so if a Moderate Nina is the average follow up of a Super Nino, I think it will only be a Weak Nina. We'll see. 

Yeah, the La Ninas have been getting weaker following super El Niños since the early 1970s.

This past La Niña was the weakest on record following the 2023-2024 super El Niño. Also the first time that Nino 1+2 didn’t fully cool off between super El Niño events.

This lead to the more Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA. While the STJ and Nino 1+2 warming were relatively weak vs the Northern Stream, the Gulf Coast got an historic snowstorm in January 2025. 

Super El Niño ONI and the lowest ONI in the years following 

NDJ 72…..+2.1

NDJ 73……-2.0

NDJ 82…….+2.2

NDJ 84…….-1.1

NDJ 97…..+2.4

NDJ 99…..-1.7

NDJ 15……+2.8

NDJ 17…..-0.9

NDJ 23…..+2.1

NDJ 25…..-0.5

[snowman19]

Yeah, the La Ninas have been getting weaker following super El Niños since the early 1970s.
This past La Niña was the weakest on record following the 2023-2024 super El Niño. Also the first time that Nino 1+2 didn’t fully cool off between super El Niño events.
This lead to the more Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA. While the STJ and Nino 1+2 warming were relatively weak vs the Northern Stream, the Gulf Coast got an historic snowstorm in January 2025. 
Super El Niño ONI and the lowest ONI in the years following 
NDJ 72…..+2.1
NDJ 73……-2.0
NDJ 82…….+2.2
NDJ 84…….-1.1
NDJ 97…..+2.4
NDJ 99…..-1.7
NDJ 15……+2.8
NDJ 17…..-0.9
NDJ 23…..+2.1
NDJ 25…..-0.5

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA:

June 1st release: relative peak ~+3.0 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.25 DJF

Today’s release: relative peak ~+2.8 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.1 DJF

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA:

June 1st release: peak ~+3.0 (OND)

Today’s release: peak ~+2.8 (OND)

From someone who has, for better or worse, followed the Cfs2 forecast follies over the years, the  bias corrected SSTA plumes have almost always been more accurate, whether warmer or cooler. Fwiw

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA:
June 1st release: relative peak ~+3.0 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.25 DJF


Today’s release: relative peak ~+2.8 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.1 DJF

@forkyfork I wonder what the models will show once this current WWB and the new DWKW that has formed does their “dirty work”? There is some major strengthening and warming about to come

And once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with the El Nino/Bjerknes feedback