40/70 Benchmark Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 12 hours ago, raindancewx said: For anyone wondering - June is a pretty canonical -PNA pattern so far. Not PDO or ENSO driven. Despite the rumor that +PNA = +ENSO, it's never really been true in the Summer. CPC has the PNA as so weak in the Summer that is just has -- for PNA correlations to ENSO - not 0, not -0.87 or +0.33 actual blanks. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_jun.txt -PNA June = Cold NW, Hot SW. Green on the lower map is positive correlation (-PNA = cold, +PNA = warm) while blues are opposite correlation (-PNA = warm, +PNA = cold). You can see the neutral spot over the Southeast shows up as well. Definitely been a hot month out here...only recently shifted more temperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals. Yes, we definitely maximized the precip we received in the form of snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 CANSIPS clearly has a Modoki look just viewing H5 next winter...don't have to look at SSTs. CFS has a more east-based look. My guess is it will look more like the CFS in the seasonal mean given how strong the event is going to be, but I could certainly see a stretch from latter January into February looking like the CANSIPS. I suspect we won't see a wall-to-wall furnace, although I'm sure Bluewave and the climate changer will be quoting tweets declaring it the warmest winter on record across the CONUS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals. You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February. But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February. But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists. I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run. At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, bluewave said: At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly. Yea, I haven't seen under 30" since 2011-2012. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 18 Author Share Posted June 18 Subsurface continues to look really healthy. TAO/Triton will probably pop >+8c in the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Region 1+2 pushing over +3C Yet another new WWB projected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Forcing extending back to the WPAC warm pool as we approach early July may result in more Niña-like elements than we typically see with super El Niños continuing. This has been the case during the spring into summer so far with the record 30 C warm pool. So we can see overlapping influences continue with the North American pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Forcing extending back to the WPAC warm pool as we approach early July may result in more Niña-like elements than we typically see with super El Niños continuing. This has been the case during the spring into summer so far with the record 30 C warm pool. So we can see overlapping influences continue with the North American pattern. So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 14 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall. I don’t think it will. Just posted about it, but we have yet another very strong WWB forecasted for the end of this month. That will initiate another DWKW. I think these WWBs end up pushing the entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool east. The new EURO Copernicus multi-model run has the 30C isotherm pushing all the way east to 140W by November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 On 6/12/2026 at 8:38 PM, GaWx said: Today’s -29 is the 33rd straight day with a sub -5 SOI. Tomorrow will make 34. That’s pretty historic because that will make it the 3rd longest sub -5 streak on record back to 1991! The only two longer ones were in 1997-8 and they were extremely long: 51 and 42 days, respectively. The beauty of the SOI is that it doesn’t appear to be strongly affected by CC. Thus it doesn’t need a RONI-like adjustment to remain a good indicator of ENSO strength. The sub -5 SOI streak ended at 36 days. The only longer ones back to 1991 are the 51 and 42 day streaks of 1997-8. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 On 6/13/2026 at 2:03 PM, GaWx said: Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -. Guessing per models 6/14: -15 to -20 6/15: -6 to -13 6/16: +5 to -6 6/17: +8 to -5 6/18: +16 to +1 6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point) 6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2 SOI daily: Prediction from 6/13………actual 6/14: -15 to -20…….-25 6/15: -6 to -13…….-13 6/16: +5 to -6………..-3 6/17: +8 to -5……….-1 6/18: +16 to +1……….+4 6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)………? 6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2………..? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Really impressive to see the Nino 3.4 actual SSTs just -0.45C cooler than the November 2015 all-time record and its only June. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Really impressive to see the Nino 3.4 actual SSTs just -0.45C cooler than the November 2015 all-time record and its only June. Region 3.4 is off the charts for this time of year, region 1+2 has pushed over +3C. And this is with more strong WWBs and DWKWs to come. And there’s +8C anomalies in the equatorial subsurface in the EPAC, just staggering. If the EURO Copernicus is correct, the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W by November, which is record breaking, totally unprecedented. The current all time record for that is 155W….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Region 3.4 is off the charts for this time of year, region 1+2 has pushed over +3C. And this is with more strong WWBs and DWKWs to come. And there’s +8C anomalies in the equatorial subsurface in the EPAC, just staggering. If the EURO Copernicus is correct, the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W by November, which is record breaking, totally unprecedented. The current all time record for that is 155W….. Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro increases its ONI Nino 3.4 forecast plumes a bit more with the coming July 5th update. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 18 Author Share Posted June 18 Something interesting to ponder is after the 23-24 Super Nino, the Atlantic was warmest ever in 2024. Does the recent trend of -AMO prevail, or do we see the same warming next year (it did have a head start in 2023)? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 14 hours ago, bluewave said: Forcing extending back to the WPAC warm pool as we approach early July may result in more Niña-like elements than we typically see with super El Niños continuing. This has been the case during the spring into summer so far with the record 30 C warm pool. So we can see overlapping influences continue with the North American pattern. I have been researching this for my upcoming blog....2015 had it somewhat, but it was much more pronounced in 2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro increases its ONI Nino 3.4 forecast plumes a bit more with the coming July 5th update. So much for everyone saying we can't have Super Nino's so close together. That's what I want to stress with a lot of this ENSO stuff, historical data isn't extensive and different periods of time have different conditions that are not universal constants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have been researching this for my upcoming blog....2015 had it somewhat, but it was much more pronounced in 2023. If the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W (like the Copernicus is forecasting to happen by November), you aren’t going to have to worry about it. I think these big WWBs/DWKWs cause that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool to discharge and slosh east this time. This event isn’t playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 For obvious reasons, I’m taking this with a humongous grain and thus assume this won’t verify closely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 19 minutes ago, GaWx said: For obvious reasons, I’m taking this with a humongous grain and thus assume this won’t verify closely: Euro weeklies have it around the 2nd week of July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: So much for everyone saying we can't have Super Nino's so close together. That's what I want to stress with a lot of this ENSO stuff, historical data isn't extensive and different periods of time have different conditions that are not universal constants. It's only happened once before, when 3 robust el ninos happened in the 1982-92 period, which was a solid +PDO period. After the 2nd el nino event was a strong la nina. If we do get a very strong el nino, I'm almost expecting that after 2 in a short period, it's going to have to correct to the opposite direction, and a robust la nina will follow after it. And there was somewhat of a correction in 1983 and 1984, even before the robust 1988 event. There was none in 2024 or 2025. It's got to correct, unless we've reached a point of no return and the global climate is permanently altered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 19 hours ago, bluewave said: Really impressive to see the Nino 3.4 actual SSTs just -0.45C cooler than the November 2015 all-time record and its only June. Thinking about ONI and RONI. Surface winds like trades are driven by surface temperature difference, so RONI probably more relevent. Precipitation and heat release to atmosphere from condensation are driven by moisture content. Warmer air holds more moisture so ONI is probably more relevent. Jet stream should have some ONI influence due to extra warming of tropical deep atmosphere from condensation. Will be interesting to see how the two factors play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 On 6/18/2026 at 2:48 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro increases its ONI Nino 3.4 forecast plumes a bit more with the coming July 5th update. Yep. The CFS has started to increase again. With the ongoing surface and subsurface warming, another round of strong WWBs coming up late month, another anticipated -SOI plunge next week and very likely another DWKW forming, the July model forecasts will almost certainly bump up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 On 6/18/2026 at 9:35 AM, LakePaste25 said: So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall. Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños. But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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