2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

 Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??:

7/25: ~-0.6

8/25: ~0

9/25: ~0

10/25: ~-0.3

11/25: ~0

12/25: ~+0.35

1/26: ~0

2/26:~-0.5

3/26: ~-0.6

4/26: ~-0.6

5/26: ~-0.7

 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

^ “Given the inability of the Anticyclone to exercise its normal duties at this time of year; warm waters are fully invading the Peruvian coastline and beginning to manifest off the north of #Chile.
On the other hand, with a different dynamic, the dissipation of the cold anomaly off the north of #Ecuador was also observed.
#Lima today Saturday, one week from the start of the astronomical winter, is seeing temperatures between 25°C and 27°C.
#ElNiño”

[roardog]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??:

7/25: ~-0.6

8/25: ~0

9/25: ~0

10/25: ~-0.3

11/25: ~0

12/25: ~+0.35

1/26: ~0

2/26:~-0.5

3/26: ~-0.6

4/26: ~-0.6

5/26: ~-0.7

 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

 

 

 

That seems like a huge change. If they changed their methodology that much then it's hard to take the past numbers seriously. It's almost annoying actually. lol

[jaxjagman]

Im kinda skeptic you see any big change in the SST'S  in the east.Seems like we are fixing to see a WWB getting combatted with possibly a strong EWB,which is why you see the RMMS showing a decent signal into the WP when we get into July and beyond,other than that maybe a ERW off the Peruvian coast which could possibly warm  3 up,should not be much going on well into July

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is warming again. Eastern subsurface is about to pop a +8c on TAO/Triton. If normal water is 65F, that's almost 80 degrees, 100 meters below the surface. In La nina it can possibly cool down to 55F, so it must be interesting the type of wildlife that has evolved there, along the equator. 

[buckeye]

Don ain’t buy’n it

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Don ain’t buy’n it

Idk Don, but even I must admit Don's in denial on this one Buckeye. 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

Don ain’t buy’n it

So I actually looked this news article up and it’s kind of what I thought it was going to be. The headline isn’t what he said at all. Basically this guy says he expects a strong El Niño but a dry winter in Wyoming isn’t guaranteed since nothing is guaranteed in weather that far in advance. 

[bluewave]

The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997.

Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America.

Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4.
 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

If we're having an el nino that's supposedly going off the charts, then I don't expect the PDO to repeat the pattern of the last 2 years. If a record-breaking el nino can't flip the PDO, then it's time to start getting concerned that the -PDO is going to be permanent. Quite frankly, if a record-breaking el nino doesn't break the -PDO, I don't know what will.

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997.

Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America.

Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4.
 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

 

 

@csnavywx Brought up the off-equator WWBs a couple of weeks ago: 

“We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect.

I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

[buckeye]

11 hours ago, roardog said:

So I actually looked this news article up and it’s kind of what I thought it was going to be. The headline isn’t what he said at all. Basically this guy says he expects a strong El Niño but a dry winter in Wyoming isn’t guaranteed since nothing is guaranteed in weather that far in advance. 

Yea, clickbait,  just thought the headline was so opposite this thread, I couldn’t resist

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we're having an el nino that's supposedly going off the charts, then I don't expect the PDO to repeat the pattern of the last 2 years. If a record-breaking el nino can't flip the PDO, then it's time to start getting concerned that the -PDO is going to be permanent. Quite frankly, if a record-breaking el nino doesn't break the -PDO, I don't know what will.

Time would be my guess.

[roardog]

52 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Time would be my guess.

It seems like everything is expected to be permanent anymore(droughts,floods,etc)until they aren't.

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO.

Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO.

Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

The PDO doesn’t force ENSO to do anything or prevent it from doing anything, it’s a completely separate extratropical entity. In fact, there are studies that show that ENSO events (especially strong ones) can influence/modulate the PDO if anything, not the other way around. Eric Webb has been arguing that the well coupled ++PMM (subtropical entity) is acting as a +PDO right now

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is some overlap, but ENSO and the PDO effect different areas in the Pacific - ENSO is further east and PDO is further west. 

[jaxjagman]

+PDO can happen even in a NINA,but more likely in a NINO,maybe more study to what actually starts a period?Dacula has the Index of the PDO going back into the last century

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There is some overlap, but ENSO and the PDO effect different areas in the Pacific - ENSO is further east and PDO is further west. 

Chuck and others, check this out:

June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958!

This is pretty surreal in our warming world:

2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C!

2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C

 

1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C

1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Ever since the Solar Max in May 2024, where a weakened magnetic field brought the aurora borealis very far towards the central part of the Earth - The warm season has been getting this cold 60-90N. At the end of last September, I think we had the lowest 500mb on record for the month in the N. Hemisphere, all time. 

[MJO812]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/a-mysterious-cold-blob-in-the-ocean-has-puzzled-scientists-a-new-study-says-its-an-ominous-sign/1901261?fbclid=IwdGRjcAScMnJjbGNrBJwyWWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHoTzcIYDR8FTJ2q60mKwMa-wZttSgo_VdFnjmDN1VFkHopXIeu02tI3bKBIm_aem_ErnINIq4n_cdpCDzVWjG6A

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Northern Russia gets 4980dm in mid-June tomorrow. Pretty impressive! 

[snowman19]

On 6/13/2026 at 6:09 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is warming again. Eastern subsurface is about to pop a +8c on TAO/Triton. If normal water is 65F, that's almost 80 degrees, 100 meters below the surface. In La nina it can possibly cool down to 55F, so it must be interesting the type of wildlife that has evolved there, along the equator. 

+8C in the subsurface is ridiculous. The warming at the surface has also been staggering

 

 

 

 

[chubbs]

In the past couple of weeks, daily record SST from satellite have expanded from the PMM into the enso regions and nearby, mainly N of the equator

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

+PDO can happen even in a NINA,but more likely in a NINO,maybe more study to what actually starts a period?Dacula has the Index of the PDO going back into the last century

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

I think 95-96 was the last time we had a solid +PDO la nina. Oddly enough, it followed the -PDO el nino in 94-95. I wonder what caused the inverse correlation of those years. Mind you this was at the end of a 20+ year +PDO period (the transition from +PDO to -PDO took place in between the super el nino and strong la nina in 1998).

Maybe we do get something similar this time around, a -PDO el nino in 26-27, followed by a +PDO la nina in 27-28. Then, one final -PDO event, before the transition to +PDO.

[snowman19]

In the past couple of weeks, daily record SST from satellite have expanded from the PMM into the enso regions and nearby, mainly N of the equator

Yep. And warming off the coast of South America has been increasing rapidly over the last week

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO.

Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

While the CFS missed the summer PDO drop last summer, it’s still forecasting the PDO to remain negative into next January.

Mostly due to the stronger ridge and lighter winds east of Japan. The main reason the current PDO is less strongly negative than recent years at this time is the record +PMM.

In the past record +PMM patterns often coincided with a robust +PDO before the warm pool emerged east of Japan.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/a-mysterious-cold-blob-in-the-ocean-has-puzzled-scientists-a-new-study-says-its-an-ominous-sign/1901261?fbclid=IwdGRjcAScMnJjbGNrBJwyWWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHoTzcIYDR8FTJ2q60mKwMa-wZttSgo_VdFnjmDN1VFkHopXIeu02tI3bKBIm_aem_ErnINIq4n_cdpCDzVWjG6A

"It plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping regulate global weather patterns. Its collapse would have enormous implications, including much more extreme winters"

On no, not that...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm sure someone is going to explain why it wouldn't be enjoyable and would entail certain economic collapse and death, but we are hammered with that over GW, anyway....so excuse me if I salvage bit of solace form the prospect of my final days being snow-filled.