2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

On 6/13/2026 at 12:38 PM, GaWx said:

 Despite being steady last 7 days, I predict that 3.4 will warm by 0.3 in Mon’s update because of how the weeks compare.

Nino 3.4 officially warmed by 0.2 in today’s update from +0.7 to +0.9:

 

                               1+2        3         3.4      4 

06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[bluewave]

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East.

Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative.

But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East.

Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative.

But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme. 
 

 

I was just thinking that yesterday on a totally anecdotal level...the big heat this month hasn't seemed Nino like. Glad the empirical data jives with my hunch.

[LakePaste25]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East.

Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative.

But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme. 
 

 

 

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just thinking that yesterday on a totally anecdotal level...the big heat this month hasn't seemed Nino like. Glad the empirical data jives with my hunch.

Ensembles really want to hang onto this W pac forcing too. Competing Nina influence for the foreseeable future. 

 

[snowman19]

[TheClimateChanger]

Just a heads-up, as I’ve seen this chart making the rounds: 

 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx  Is the current MEI rise from March through May actually the biggest rise on record for that index like I’m reading on twitter? I only have the data through 1979 right now

I see only 1979+ in the table. Based on it, the 2026 rise from MA to AM of 0.9C (-0.6 to +0.3) is the biggest rise for MA to AM since at least 1979. The previous biggest was the 0.7C of 2015:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[GaWx]

 The latest OISST 3.4 1991-2020 anom of +1.607, which is for June 14th, is the warmest for this Nino to date and is ~0.075C warmer than that for June 13th making it the largest warming for any day since June 5th:

[bluewave]

Impressive and record breaking Nino 3.4 lead over 2016 and 1997 for June 14th at 29.32C or +1.61 C.

 

[roardog]

Now that we’re heading through June we can see the big divergence with 1997 is going to be Nino 4. This shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone but it’s still a big deal IMO. 

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s also a big divergence with 2015…this one is way more east-based than 2015 was

Here are CPC numbers for all 4 Enso areas for 6/10/15 & 6/10/26:

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3ⁿ

If you divide Enso 1.2 anomaly into the other 3 areas' anomalies for both years, you get respectively  60%, 45% and 45% in 2015 and 59.25%, 55.55% and 48.15% this year. Comparing the 2 years, Enso 3 is nearly identical for both years and 3.4 and 4 are a hair warmer this year than 2015.

Obviously, there may be other ways to figure it, but I'd have to say that they are very similar with a slight edge to 2015 as being more east based under this method.

P.s. @GaWx will surely check my math! Lol

[so_whats_happening]

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/a-mysterious-cold-blob-in-the-ocean-has-puzzled-scientists-a-new-study-says-its-an-ominous-sign/1901261?fbclid=IwdGRjcAScMnJjbGNrBJwyWWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHoTzcIYDR8FTJ2q60mKwMa-wZttSgo_VdFnjmDN1VFkHopXIeu02tI3bKBIm_aem_ErnINIq4n_cdpCDzVWjG6A

Some recent studies show that the local cold blob in the North Atlantic is a result of stronger winds from the more persistent +NAOs rather than a slowdown in the AMOC.

 

 

 

 

‪Anthony Masiello‬ ‪@antmasiello.bsky.social‬

· 7mo

Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole.

 

 

‪Sang-Ki Lee‬

 ‪@sklee621.bsky.social‬

· 7mo

The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests: ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t...

The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research

This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant…

 

ocean2climate.org

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Here are CPC numbers for all 4 Enso areas for 6/10/15 & 6/10/26:

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3ⁿ

If you divide Enso 1.2 anomaly into the other 3 areas' anomalies for both years, you get respectively  60%, 45% and 45% in 2015 and 59.25%, 55.55% and 48.15% this year. Comparing the 2 years, Enso 3 is nearly identical for both years and 3.4 and 4 are a hair warmer this year than 2015.

Obviously, there may be other ways to figure it, but I'd have to say that they are very similar with a slight edge to 2015 as being more east based under this method.

P.s. @GaWx will surely check my math! Lol

 Thanks, Mitch. Indeed, “E based” can be defined in numerous ways as it’s not black and white, of course.

 Here are the relative anomalies for the strongest of years in 3.4 as of the closest week centered on June 10th back to 1982:

                            1+2         3         3.4         4

09JUN1982        -0.2        0.8        1.0       1.1 

11JUN1997         3.0        1.3        0.8        0.2

12JUN2002        -0.3        0.6        0.8        0.7

10JUN2015         1.8        0.8        0.6        0.7

10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

 

 Just looking at this period rather than model progs for fall/winter, here are my rankings of most to least E based:

1997, 2026, 2015, 2002, 1982 though 2026 is only slightly ahead of 2015

 

[snowman19]

“Potentially Historic #ElNino in Making

Just Days After the American Weather Agency NOAA Declared the Arrival of El Nino, Today the Australian Weather Agency BOM has Declared the Event.

According to BOM, Almost Half of the Models now indicate that this Event would be among the Strongest Ever in the Recorded History

Some Notable Record Already Smashed by the Present Evolving El Nino are mentioned below-

1) The Traditional Nino 3.4 Index (Primary El Nino Monitoring Region) is now at +1.45c.
This is the Highest Ever Temperature Achieved at this Stage of an Evolving El Nino and Beats all Previous Super El Nino Events)

2) This is Fastest Ever Flip from a Mature La Nina State Early in the Year to Almost a High End Moderate El Nino within a Span of just 6 Months”

[snowman19]

And the new WWB generated DWKW has begun to make its trek eastward with more warming to follow….

[bluewave]

On 6/14/2026 at 8:12 AM, snowman19 said:

@csnavywx Brought up the off-equator WWBs a couple of weeks ago: 

“We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect.

I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. 

Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4.

1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

June 10th

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3

07JUN2023     26.1 2.6     28.0 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.5 0.7

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

11JUN1997     26.1 2.8     27.8 1.1     28.4 0.7     28.9 0.1
 

At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties

29NOV2023     24.2 2.1     27.2 2.0     28.7 2.0     30.3 1.7 

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

26NOV1997     25.8 3.7     28.4 3.3     28.9 2.2     29.3 0.7
 03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.2 3.1     28.8 2.1     29.2 0.6

 

 

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. 

Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4.

1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

June 10th

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3

07JUN2023     26.1 2.6     28.0 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.5 0.7

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

11JUN1997     26.1 2.8     27.8 1.1     28.4 0.7     28.9 0.1
 

At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties

29NOV2023     24.2 2.1     27.2 2.0     28.7 2.0     30.3 1.7 

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

26NOV1997     25.8 3.7     28.4 3.3     28.9 2.2     29.3 0.7
 03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.2 3.1     28.8 2.1     29.2 0.6

 

 

IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record

[Typhoon Tip]

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Moving a little more exponential the last few days

Subsurface looks really healthy right now

Let's see if the seasonal decadal trend of a ridge in the Rockies/SW gets suppressed this July

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

Some warmnistas would love nothing more because it would equal the year without a winter, lol

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Some would love nothing more because it would equal the year without a winter, lol

More like I want the W pac warm pool to completely shift east so we can have better synoptic snow the following winters. A mid +2c super nino that probably ends up with a warm winter anyway won’t do the job. Might as well go for the full historic, make this the sacrificial lamb and see if we can get good patterns the years after

[raindancewx]

For anyone wondering - June is a pretty canonical -PNA pattern so far. Not PDO or ENSO driven. Despite the rumor that +PNA = +ENSO, it's never really been true in the Summer. CPC has the PNA as so weak in the Summer that is just has -- for PNA correlations to ENSO - not 0, not -0.87 or +0.33 actual blanks.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_jun.txt

-PNA June = Cold NW, Hot SW. Green on the lower map is positive correlation (-PNA = cold, +PNA = warm) while blues are opposite correlation (-PNA = warm, +PNA = cold).

You can see the neutral spot over the Southeast shows up as well.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I can never get U of Del Air Temp working on the correlation composite. Is there a secret to it? 

June will likely be the 5th straight month of -PNA (CPC). I've found that the correlation roll forwards are weak for what happens later in the year, surprisingly. 

[forkyfork]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

our willpower is working

[snowman19]

And this is quite the WWB….

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

Get ready for 30C minimums in November and December.

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record

The 500 mb pattern is beginning to look more Nino-like during the second half of June. Finally getting the familiar ridge just west of  British Columbia. This is allowing the typical June El Niño trough to form near the Great Lakes.
 

 

 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This should increase more once the +IOD gets going. Per Eric Webb, the record ++PMM is acting as a +PDO

The thing to watch for in July is how much the warm pool near Japan driving the -PDO interacts with the +PMM.

The models runs in late June will give us some clues.

Could be another overlapping pattern with some Nino-like and Niña-like influences to 500 mb pattern for North America.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals.