csnavywx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 What happens when you get 1997 and 1972-like wind stress patterns with 2026 OHC/SSTs? We're about to find out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: @LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing: Regarding 1+2 less 3.4 per the table link below, 1982-3 fall/winter monthly peak was +1.1. This is based on Nov, which had 1+2 at +3.0 vs 3.4’s +1.9. 1997-8 peak differential was way up at +2.1 (also in Nov)! This is based on 1+2’s +4.5 vs 3.4’s +2.4. But the Euro per Ben’s quoted charts above has a mere only ~+0.7 for 2026-7’s peak monthly 1+2 less 3.4, which is in Sept with 1+2 then ~+3.8 vs 3.4’s ~+3.1! So, the Euro is actually forecasting 26-7 to have a somewhat weaker 1+2 less 3.4 than 82-3 and MUCH weaker than 97-8. So per this measure, it’s forecasting a less E based 26-7 than 82-2 and MUCH less E based than 97-8. Monthly ERSST: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: But it’s less E based than 82-3 and much less E based than 97-8 as I just showed. Since you’ve been emphasizing how much E based 26-7 is looking, what do you think about this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s still going to be east-based Agreed. I didn’t say 26-7 wasn’t looking E based. I’m saying it doesn’t look as E based as 1982-3 and not anywhere close to (not even in the ballpark) as E based as 1997-8. You posted earlier today this: “Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was.” This (“severely east-based/EP like 1997”) is not true when you compare the regions, which is how E based/C based/Modoki are defined. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 i've skimmed through the first 10ish pages of this thread and a lot of you should be embarrassed 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 21 hours ago, GaWx said: Winter storms in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry. So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being mainly from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough). There is no question there is some type of correlation too, at least for places like AL/GA/MS/SC for the frequency to be higher during the cold AMO periods. That does not seem to be as much a factor for TN/NC/AR/OK/TX. But there is a higher peak, even in El Nino winters for those other 4 states in the 70s/80s and even during the more neutral or weaker warmer AMO period of the 40s/50s. I don't know if that is purely that colder outbreaks are more common then or perhaps/phasing amplified systems that cut north of them are less likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 20 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i've skimmed through the first 10ish pages of this thread and a lot of you should be embarrassed Same for all the X posts that were wrong. You better go tell everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Just now, WX-PA said: Not bad but that storm track could mean lots of rain..doubt there is much cold air with the Super Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: @LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing: Yes. It's looking like a monster east-based El Niño event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 20 hours ago, mitchnick said: Nice to hear from you Buckeye. back at ya, sometimes i miss the old days when subs based on geography weren't a thing. ...sometimes 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. It's looking like a monster east-based El Niño event. Indeed, Don, the Euro’s June prog has the strongest (“monster” as you said) on record. And I agree it’s looking E based. But it’s not currently looking nearly as E based as 97-8 based on peak fall/winter differences between 1+2 and 3.4/4 per the latest Euro. And it’s not even looking as E based as 1982-3 per these same differences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Regarding 1+2 less 3.4 per the table link below, 1982-3 fall/winter monthly peak was +1.1. This is based on Nov, which had 1+2 at +3.0 vs 3.4’s +1.9. 1997-8 peak differential was way up at +2.1 (also in Nov)! This is based on 1+2’s +4.5 vs 3.4’s +2.4. But the Euro per Ben’s quoted charts above has a mere only ~+0.7 for 2026-7’s peak monthly 1+2 less 3.4, which is in Sept with 1+2 then ~+3.8 vs 3.4’s ~+3.1! So, the Euro is actually forecasting 26-7 to have a somewhat weaker 1+2 less 3.4 than 82-3 and MUCH weaker than 97-8. So per this measure, it’s forecasting a less E based 26-7 than 82-2 and MUCH less E based than 97-8. Monthly ERSST: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: We can probably assume that the W pac warm pool will finally slosh east if those model output verify. You don’t get a +4C ONI Nino without it doing so. The core of the 30C+ SSTs will probably shift over closer to MJO 7 and Nino 4 as the current forecast would surpass even 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 in those locations. The Euro has Nino 4 exceeding +2.0 which would be a first if it verifies. The previous Nino 4 record was 30.21C and +1.51 back in November 2023. Perhaps some areas could approach +31.0C. Even Nino 3.4 could get close to +30.0 C like in 2015-2016. The Euro has the warm pool east of Japan continuing. The IOD peaks in October and the SSTs near the Maritime Continent begin to rebound by December. So an historic and extensive area of extreme SSTs from the WPAC into the ENSO regions being forecast. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii 2015 11 23.93 2.28 27.95 2.84 30.13 1.44 2023 11 23.73 2.07 27.20 2.10 30.21 1.51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Latest Euro seasonal gets the enhanced coastal precipitation going as early as September. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Wow! The latest update for OISST (June 4th) has a massive warming for one day: 0.189C! That’s the strongest one day warming since way back on March 6th! The last 4 days have warmed a hair over 0.4C or a whopping 0.1C/day! That’s the fastest 4 day warming on this entire chart, even exceeding the ~0.36C of April 11th-15th. See far right side of the image below. The strong -SOI is doing its magic on its typically couple of week delayed basis vs when the strong negative string started. This means the 6/5/26 RONI equivalent daily is already up to the +0.8 to +0.9 range! Implications for Monday’s weekly 3.4 update: at the very least an increase of 0.2C to 0.7C relative 3.4. There’s a good shot at an increase of 0.3 to 0.8 relative 3.4 if this continues to rise on the next 2 days’ updates: Check out today’s and last 4 days’ warming! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 ^You were right about the lagged warming after the SOI. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: Wow! The latest update for OISST (June 4th) has a massive warming for one day: 0.189C! That’s the strongest one day warming since way back on March 6th! The last 4 days have warmed a hair over 0.4C or a whopping 0.1C/day! That’s the fastest 4 day warming on this entire chart, even exceeding the ~0.36C of April 11th-15th. See far right side of the image below. The strong -SOI is doing its magic on its typically couple of week delayed basis vs when the strong negative strong started. This means the 6/5/26 RONI equivalent daily is already up to the +0.8 to +0.9 range! Implications for Monday’s weekly 3.4 update: at the very least an increase of 0.2C to 0.7C relative 3.4. There’s a good shot at an increase of 0.3 to 0.8 relative 3.4 if this continues to rise on the next 2 days’ updates: Check out today’s and last 4 days’ warming! The recent spike has sent daily Nino 3.4 temps well into record territory. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Record breaking WWB for this time of year driving those record Nino 3.4 SSTs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 On 6/4/2026 at 1:01 PM, LakePaste25 said: I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.” Yea, that's how I feel. I don't see it showing up in the seasonal mean like the CANSIPS implies, but probably periods of it, especially in the 2nd half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 Euro and CANSIPS completely different over the EPO domain for the Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 3 hours ago, GaWx said: Indeed, Don, the Euro’s June prog has the strongest (“monster” as you said) on record. And I agree it’s looking E based. But it’s not currently looking nearly as E based as 97-8 based on peak fall/winter differences between 1+2 and 3.4/4 per the latest Euro. And it’s not even looking as E based as 1982-3 per these same differences. It might not be as east-based as either of those two ENSO events, but there's still a lot of time before the anomalies peak. It looks solidly east-based, perhaps evolving into a basinwide event as it weakens. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 CPC continues to go El Nino in long range STJ predictions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It might not be as east-based as either of those two ENSO events, but there's still a lot of time before the anomalies peak. It looks solidly east-based, perhaps evolving into a basinwide event as it weakens. Yeah, we could have active forcing from the WPAC and CPAC over to the EPAC with how extensive the warm pool is forecast to become. Notice how the pattern from the Great Lakes to the Northeast wasn’t all that different between 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. Forcing either focused near the EPAC in 1997-1998 or more split like 2023-2024 between the WPAC and CPAC along with the EPAC yielded roughly similar results for the Great Lakes and Northeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 muh backyard snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru ^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data @DHN_peru All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.” And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru ^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data @DHN_peru All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.” And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress: The ongoing and strengthening El Niño is already contributing to record warm ocean temperatures. Global sea surface temperatures are currently well ahead of those during the development of the 2023-24 El Niño. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru ^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data @DHN_peru All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.” And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress: Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983: The following are 1+2 monthly anoms 1983 5 28.26 3.85 1983 6 27.36 4.24 And 1997 was quite warm, too: 1997 6 26.12 3.00 These are weeklies 1983 much warmer 01JUN1983 4.4 08JUN1983 4.0 1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative’s low 2s: 28MAY1997 2.6 04JUN1997 2.5 11JUN1997 3.0 OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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