2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And this is before the new WWB (which has just begun), ERW and subsequent DWKW has a chance to do their dirty work with strengthening this event further

 Today’s CFS has a record high RONI starting in JAS and going through NDJ before dropping at a record quick pace to only 3rd highest in DJF. I’m talking about records for each respective 3 month period, not overall.

 On monthly basis, it has records Jul-Dec! But then Jan falls so fast that it is then 0.5 cooler than ‘83 and is only 6th warmest behind ‘83, ‘92, ‘98, ‘58, and ,’16. Feb also is 6th warmest with it a whopping 0.63 cooler than ‘92! 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s CFS has a record high RONI starting in JAS and going through NDJ before dropping at a record quick pace to only 3rd highest in DJF. I’m talking about records for each respective 3 month period, not overall.

 On monthly basis, it has records Jul-Dec! But then Jan falls so fast that it is then 0.5 cooler than ‘83 and is only 6th warmest behind ‘83, ‘92, ‘98, ‘58, and ,’16. Feb also is 6th warmest with it a whopping 0.63 cooler than ‘92! 

Cfs will change only a thousand more times before November. 

[MarcmmKU]

16 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Man the northeast is so cooked next winter. 

Not necessarily. I think 1997-1998 was ok for the interior. I think it's unlikely though that both the interior and coast get close to normal snowfall. At least one will probably be far below normal. The coast cause they missed out on a KU, or the interior cause it truly was an epic torch.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Legit Strong Nino going

 

30 May 2026	1012.24	1014.15	-26.33	-13.17	-5.29
29 May 2026	1011.31	1014.15	-33.46	-12.63	-4.77
28 May 2026	1012.81	1014.30	-23.11

 

Again, lowest 2-month SOI likely in 10 years. March's +7 really came back around. It had never been above +2.3 in March in a developing Strong+ Nino before, guess it didn't matter too much, except showing general SOI tendency to not really take off like SSTA, that has been present in the 2020s. 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Legit Strong Nino going

 

30 May 2026	1012.24	1014.15	-26.33	-13.17	-5.29
29 May 2026	1011.31	1014.15	-33.46	-12.63	-4.77
28 May 2026	1012.81	1014.30	-23.11

 

Again, lowest 2-month SOI likely in 10 years. March's +7 really came back around. It had never been above +2.3 in March in a developing Strong+ Nino before, guess it didn't matter too much, except showing general SOI tendency to not really take off like SSTA, that has been present in the 2020s. 

 Based on the past after strong -SOI periods, 3.4 SSTs tend to start warming ~10-24 days after the start of these periods. The last 20 days have averaged way down at -18 (and it hasn’t yet shown it is ending soon). Thus I’m expecting 3.4 to resume good warming at almost anytime after the last 2 weeks of little change. Plus the models have strong warming resuming in June. Thus I expect 3.4 to be several 10ths warmer by a week from now.

[snowman19]

The Peruvian government is confirming SST anomalies of over +5C off their coast (ENSO region 1+2)

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Peruvian government is confirming SST anomalies of over +5C off their coast (ENSO region 1+2)
 

Latest OISST 1+2 anomaly is +2.5C (non-relative). That tells me that relative 1+2 is at a pretty hefty ~+2.0:

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Super Ninos aren’t always record warm for the NE unless you get that competing Nina forcing from the W pac warm pool. The typical way to get record warm temps here is via the SE ridge which ushers in subtropical air from the Gulf. Ninos don’t have this and instead typically usher in a pacific jet extension which floods the lower 48 with mild pacific air, and you have a raging southern stream bringing cool and stormy weather in the south.  This pattern is usually record warm for the northern plains and Canada, but not the NE. 

The Nina-like WPAC warm pool forcing in DJF 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 did enhance the warmth in the Northeast those winters above the typical super El Niño winters like 1997-1998 and 1982-1983.

While the PDO was positive in 2015-2016, we got the record MJO 5 in December adding to the historic +13 warmth. 2023-2024 had both a -PDO and strong MJO 4-7 activity. So both winters featured record Niña-like MJO activity for super El Niños.

But even without the Niña influence in 1997-1998, that winter was still very warm. Plus the winters have warmed since 1997-1998. So perhaps that winter would be just as warm today as 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 was even without the La Niña influence. Since the stronger Southeast trough in 1997-1998 was all Pacific air with the record east based super El Niño. 

Top 15 warmest winters in NYC

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
	2015-2016	41.0	Super El Niño Nina Influence
3	2023-2024	40.6	Super El Niño Nina influence
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	Super El Niño No Niña influence
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0
11	1948-1949	38.5	0
12	1889-1890	38.4	0
13	1952-1953	38.1	0
14	1982-1983	37.9	Super El Niño No Niña influence
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
15	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0

 

 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Nina-like WPAC warm pool forcing in DJF 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 did enhance the warmth in the Northeast those winters above the typical super El Niño winters like 1997-1998 and 1982-1983.

While the PDO was positive in 2015-2016, we got the record MJO 5 in December adding to the historic +13 warmth. 2023-2024 had both a -PDO and strong MJO 4-7 activity. So both winters featured record Niña-like MJO activity for super El Niños.

But even without the Niña influence in 1997-1998, that winter was still very warm. Plus the winters have warmed since 1997-1998. So perhaps that winter would be just as warm today as 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 was even without the La Niña influence. Since the stronger Southeast trough in 1997-1998 was all Pacific air with the record east based super El Niño. 

Top 15 warmest winters in NYC

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
	2015-2016	41.0	Super El Niño Nina Influence
3	2023-2024	40.6	Super El Niño Nina influence
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	Super El Niño No Niña influence
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0
11	1948-1949	38.5	0
12	1889-1890	38.4	0
13	1952-1953	38.1	0
14	1982-1983	37.9	Super El Niño No Niña influence
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
15	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0

 

 

83% of the warmest temperature winters (40+ degrees) occurred in the last 26 years. What saddens me is if I make it to my hoped for 104th birthday in 2051, the entire list may consist of 21st century years. As always …..

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Nina-like WPAC warm pool forcing in DJF 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 did enhance the warmth in the Northeast those winters above the typical super El Niño winters like 1997-1998 and 1982-1983.

While the PDO was positive in 2015-2016, we got the record MJO 5 in December adding to the historic +13 warmth. 2023-2024 had both a -PDO and strong MJO 4-7 activity. So both winters featured record Niña-like MJO activity for super El Niños.

But even without the Niña influence in 1997-1998, that winter was still very warm. Plus the winters have warmed since 1997-1998. So perhaps that winter would be just as warm today as 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 was even without the La Niña influence. Since the stronger Southeast trough in 1997-1998 was all Pacific air with the record east based super El Niño. 

Top 15 warmest winters in NYC

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
	2015-2016	41.0	Super El Niño Nina Influence
3	2023-2024	40.6	Super El Niño Nina influence
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	Super El Niño No Niña influence
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0
11	1948-1949	38.5	0
12	1889-1890	38.4	0
13	1952-1953	38.1	0
14	1982-1983	37.9	Super El Niño No Niña influence
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
15	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0

 

 

97-98 the coast got shut out but inland didn't do that bad..we had a dusting of snow a few days after Christmas..it was warm like all Super Nino's are. 82-83 had a snow event in middle of December..65 degrees Chistmas day and a blizzard in February..15-6 had a blowtorch December..70 degrees Christmas day and a historic blizzard 4 weeks later..So yes it will be warm but there will be winter weather.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

97-98 the coast got shut out but inland didn't do that bad..we had a dusting of snow a few days after Christmas..it was warm like all Super Nino's are. 82-83 had a snow event in middle of December..65 degrees Chistmas day and a blizzard in February..15-6 had a blowtorch December..70 degrees Christmas day and a historic blizzard 4 weeks later..So yes it will be warm but there will be winter weather.

 I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy.

 I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy.

 I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.

 

Ive noticed that too...and im certainly NOT one of them lol. I love cold.

But it goes without saying that "cold" and "mild" are extremely subjective terms. Cold in Detroit is different than cold in NYC, to say nothing of the difference between NYC and where you live, and so on. 

A mild winter here will still be cold enough to snow much of the time. This is why as always storm track/pattern is more important than just temps. I hear the east coast guys talk of their worst winters where they can count on on one hand the number of times it snowed. Its a lock that its going to snow here dozens of times...the key is will there be worthwhile storms? Will it be abnormally dry? And so on.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

May finishes with a -13.22 SOI

Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI Months (out of 121 Total months):

1. Feb 24: -15.55

2. May 23: -15.26

3. Feb 19: -14.62

4. Sept 23: -13.87

5. May 26: -13.22

6. Sept 19: -12.72

April-May finishes with a -23.10 SOI

Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI 2-Months:

1. Aug-Sept 24: -24.72

2. Apr-May 26: -23.10

3. Feb-Mar 19: -21.10

All others above -20

[forkyfork]

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC continuing to go with El Nino jet stream

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z EPS really warmed up over the Great Lakes/Northeast in the medium/long term. Anti-El Nino. 

[snowman19]

[raindancewx]

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US.

Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US.

Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

 The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo:

Old:

New:

 

It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth:

Old:

New:

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2015's big +PDO is starting to diverge us in the NW, US through the 2nd half of May and now heading into June. Watch out expecting a big Winter month or two like that year, because the PDO was >+1 in 2015. Favorable NAO can help though, of course. 

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo:

Old:

New:

 

It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth:

Old:

New:

Looked good to me!

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

I sorta thought the whole discussion regarding Enso was how it effects weather. I don't think anybody really would care otherwise about equatorial Pacific temperatures outside of Pacific fishermen/shipping interests. 

[roardog]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I sorta thought the whole discussion regarding Enso was how it effects weather. I don't think anybody really would care otherwise about equatorial Pacific temperatures outside of Pacific fishermen/shipping interests. 

I’d be all for summer discussion in this thread too but there isn’t much interest in that. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z EPS really warmed up over the Great Lakes/Northeast in the medium/long term. Anti-El Nino. 

Probably a function of the more Niña-like -PDO with the WPAC warm pool. Plus the ongoing drought. So another case of the 500mb ridges becoming stronger more expansive during the 2020s than we have typically seen in the past.

 

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Probably a function of the more Niña-like -PDO with the WPAC warm pool. Plus the ongoing drought. So another case of the 500mb ridges becoming stronger more expansive during the 2020s than we have typically seen in the past.

 

To be fair, we are also putting a major dent in the warm pool, and the warmest waters are now between 160-170E with plenty of westerlies remaining in the forecast.

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably a function of the more Niña-like -PDO with the WPAC warm pool. Plus the ongoing drought. So another case of the 500mb ridges becoming stronger more expansive during the 2020s than we have typically seen in the past.

 

It hasn't happened yet! It's a forecast. Eps were too warm with the end of May forecast, soooo....

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter unless it's warm, then post away

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo:

Old:

New:

 

It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth:

Old:

New:

Kind of looks like last winter with a STJ added.

Interesting.