rclab Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 32 minutes ago, forkyfork said: what else am i going to do? take you seriously? lol 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: So that is your best, name calling....ok The prophecy ……… self fulfilled ……… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frontranger8 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said: I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently. You're missing the main point. Wasn't about absolute temps, but instead warming relative to forecasts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently. 1. My post started with “Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out”. Thus it should be understood by anyone following along that the entire post is talking about “relative” anomalies. 2. My entire post is addressing anomalies, not absolutes. You’re using an absolute in your example. 3. Relative anomalies are now official for NOAA and BoM at the least. 4. The outdated traditional way of determining anomalies is currently inflated ~0.5C due to GW. 4. August of 2026 was very warm, but it wasn’t the warmest relative 3.4 anomaly on record as Aug of 1997 was 0.18 warmer. 5. The main point of my post is that the models had way too rapid warming in 3.4 from July to August. The relative anomaly in 3.4 warmed only 0.34C per ERSST, which prevented a record high relative 3.4 anomaly for Aug. like had been progged. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 After falling back somewhat, albeit much less than earlier forecasts were advertising. Seemingly due to some -MT activity mostly. The next +AAM uptick is now imminent and from an already very elevated level (>+2). Likely achieving a new high for this event (>+3). This time, it seems poised to more readily affect the NH than any other time over the summer. So that will be interesting to see how that plays out and how it verifies. Right on time it feels like, to me, as we start heading through MET autumn but let's see how it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: So that is your best, name calling....ok that's the most effort you people deserve 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 On the latest 30 day means of VP 200 anomalies. I see only one other event even remotely comparable to this one. 97-98 and this one looks like a beast next to that even. Super impressive stuff. I mean just look at this thing... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's interesting that while this is observably weighted E ... the 3.4 is historically high. The warmth the past couple weeks in 1.2 tops the 82-97,pretty impressive either way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: The warmth the past couple weeks in 1.2 tops the 82-97,pretty impressive either way If you really squint you can see the warmth around Japan dissipating a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 5 hours ago, mitchnick said: I have children and grandchildren. Still don't worry about it. Like I said, too many other things imho that are going to "get us." lol On the one hand, the correlation between the keeling curve and global temps is strong and well documented, so I do think as a society we should be trying to lower carbon emissions. On the other hand…. This is a healthy attitude to have, take care of the environment, do our part and reject any anxiety, emotional pain or any other useless bullshit. It is very possible to acknowledge climate change is real, advocate for change, do what we can in our personal lives, and still choose to enjoy life and maintain a positive attitude rather than dwelling on the negative. I agree with you that the name calling was immature, unnecessary, and doesn’t accomplish anything. That’s a very Snowman19/Adam thing to do. On the one hand, the correlation between the keeling curve and global temps is strong and well documented, so I do think as a society we should be trying to lower carbon emissions. On the other hand…. This is a healthy attitude to have, take care of the environment, do our part and reject any anxiety, emotional pain or any other useless bullshit. It is very possible to acknowledge climate change is real, advocate for change, do what we can in our personal lives, and still choose to enjoy life and maintain a positive attitude rather than dwelling on the negative. I agree with you that the name calling was immature, unnecessary, and doesn’t accomplish anything. That’s something Snowman19/Adam would do. Does Forky know his shit about CC and meteorology? Yeah he does, but he has a lot of growing up to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 hour ago, Ephesians2 said: If you really squint you can see the warmth around Japan dissipating a bit WTF does that have to do with South America? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: WTF does that have to do with South America? Not sure what you mean. It's part of the -PDO that has been around for years and was why 2023-24 was so weird. Hopefully we see that warm blob actually break down into the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 27 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: Not sure what you mean. It's part of the -PDO that has been around for years and was why 2023-24 was so weird. Hopefully we see that warm blob actually break down into the fall. Never has there been a -PDO AT the end of August in a strong NinoWhile analogs if you find one in which i doubt you will at least ATM look like 1982 not 1997 and especially 2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Summer heat over the West looks like it has been destroyed, as Sept has been cold so far over some of the warmest areas, with more cooler than average temps coming for a while. Especially with significant rains likely from the dying East Pacific hurricane running north. Our local pattern of "every day is 90-105" has finally broken in Sept, which is nice. More rain forecast will help if it verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ensonerd1233e343 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 hours ago, Ephesians2 said: Not sure what you mean. It's part of the -PDO that has been around for years and was why 2023-24 was so weird. Hopefully we see that warm blob actually break down into the fall. 2023 was weird bc of weaker nino forcing due to warm global tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Updated Euro a touch warmer this run. DJF and JFM T2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 H5 DJF & JFM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 850 DJF & JFM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Precip DJF & JFM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Link for everything on Euro seasonal https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Nino 1+2 end up on the higher side of the average. The decreasing warm anomaly in Nino 4 was a big miss...falling completely outside of the ensemble spread. The forecasts for both Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 were near the bottom of guidance. RONI makes a difference but the sst analysis/database matters a lot too. ERA5/OSTIA puts the Nino 3.4 RONI around 2.1C whereas NOAA ERSSTv6 puts it at 1.7C. This is due to both very high resolution (0.05 degrees) and the inclusions of satellite-based SST analysis. The best forecasts from ECMWF from today and CPC/IRI plumes from late August still show this as a clearly record breaking Nino event with a RONI peak between 3 and 3.5C. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Link for everything on Euro seasonal https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} Looks warm/wet like many have said. Probably under 10" snows in the NYC metro. Very 97-98 like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks warm/wet like many have said. Probably under 10" snows in the NYC metro. Very 97-98 like For coastal locations, it'll be harder for snow, but it'll still be dependent on exact track and surface High locations. But if the precip forecasts from all the seasonal modeling are correct, there will at least be a lot of chances. If nothing else, it won't be a boring winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Yeah, next big WWB just getting underway now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Link for everything on Euro seasonal https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} Looks very much canonical east based nino. Will be interesting to see how the -pdo base state interacts with it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks warm/wet like many have said. Probably under 10" snows in the NYC metro. Very 97-98 like Yep nice stj train. How do you know it shows 10 inches ? People need to stop making statements. 1 storm can do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US ’23: ‘26: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US ’23: ‘26: what does this have to do with el nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Just now, GaWx said: H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24) It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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