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ensonerd1233e343

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Everything posted by ensonerd1233e343

  1. ensonerd1233e343
    also 1973 47 ace
  2. ensonerd1233e343
    more accurate because its an el nino so if its showing green in the east central pac and brown in the io you can make a good bet that will happen
  3. ensonerd1233e343
    mjo driven
  4. ensonerd1233e343
    2023 was weird bc of weaker nino forcing due to warm global tropics
  5. ensonerd1233e343
    yea but it will once the aluteian low gets going in mid to late northen fall also even if it didnt that wouldnt meaningfully affect the winter fcst
  6. ensonerd1233e343
    Thank you People are overthinking the winter
  7. ensonerd1233e343
    https://cyclonicwx.com/
  8. ensonerd1233e343
    We are
  9. ensonerd1233e343
    Yea look at a climo map the drop in northen summer is really stark largely due to increased fetch of se trades as itcz moves n althouh there is some other thing going on here some clouds that form im not sure
  10. ensonerd1233e343
    What? No Roni def is a realstic gague thats the reason noaa uses it lol
  11. ensonerd1233e343
    thanks
  12. ensonerd1233e343
    still record breaking
  13. ensonerd1233e343
    Mine are 3.3-3.5 oni 2.4-2.6 roni so we agree for roni i just think the tropics will be warmer so the gap between roni and oni will be bigger
  14. ensonerd1233e343
    I would say three years of la nina are likely
  15. ensonerd1233e343
    I dont think it really is and either way the odds of el nino not coupling to the n pac during northen winter are near zero so imo the point is moot
  16. ensonerd1233e343
    insignifcat
  17. ensonerd1233e343
    link to site?
  18. ensonerd1233e343
    Arse?
  19. ensonerd1233e343
    Yea but not super + and 82 -83/ 15-16 featured those patterns and dc got a good event out of both of those
  20. ensonerd1233e343
    Ok not zero esp early winter but certainly not very positive
  21. ensonerd1233e343
    ZERO evidence the nao will be + by the way
  22. ensonerd1233e343
    Im sorry i dont think solar has a big impact on enso
  23. ensonerd1233e343
    Well the second eof i would add would be more reprsenttive of central pacfic el ninos for example in the dec jan eofs the -olr is further east then many central pac ninos and so is the minimum mslp correlation on the mei map l you can also see the sst are more favorable for ep nino. As for v wind no its not as important as u wind in the dynamics of enso sure v wind can be an indirrect enso forcer but it isnt as direct as u wind because u wind triggers the down/upwelling kelvin waves which are critical to enso v wind can do no such thing. In terms of wind and slp going hand in hand thats true so if we got rid of v wind i would say we can count things all the same. As for the wwbs yes they are important but im saying an enso event shouldnt be punished inhertly bc its wwbs were 20 degrees west of typical that could still produce a strong event just more center based then typical for strong events. As for ohc the reason I was adding it wass because mei is designed to measure how coupled the system is and to me high ohc is part of that coupling as well s ocean sfc currents. In terms of mid lattidues I dont really have anything to say on that tbh
  24. ensonerd1233e343
    tbf i have only been on here for a week but i will say the index has its flaws for starters theres only one eof so if an el nino has wwbs centered slightly east or west of typical or if the olr response is aytypical ( but still nino like) that can hurt the index i think adding a second mei w a second eof could be usueful but the third issue is the variables people act like its represntitve of the coupled system but the atmosphere counts for 4/5 of the index so its really an atmospheric index, secondly all indices counting the same is also a problem, im sorry "v wind" should not count the same as slp which has a very tight correlation to enso. Imo we shoud also add upper ocean heat conent and u componet of sfc current and remove v wind but i digress. Despite its flaws its still good at capturing the atmospheric response to enso it just needs to be looked at alongside the maps for slp winds olr vp to confirm super nino coupling. So when ppl discredit it there could be a reason im not saying they are correct tho.
  25. ensonerd1233e343
    The mei came in at the highest on record for june july at 2.41 just ahead of 1997 which had a june july value of 2.27 To me the coupling of this nino has almost gone under the radar
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