OSUmetstud Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Makes sense since the drop is due to the El Nino being focused east of 3.4 right now, rather then any type of reduced expression of El Nino across the hemisphere Its also mostly just the cfs. The 3.4 ONI on the ecmwf plumes is very similar from August to September with a peak around 4C. The CCSC/IRI plumes average went up from the July 20 to the August 19 forecast. The early September BOM forecast had a similar peak to the early August one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Bom weekly data runs hotter than other agencies so you gotta compare apples to apples. The latest forecast compared to the one from just under a month ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 25 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Its also mostly just the cfs. The 3.4 ONI on the ecmwf plumes is very similar from August to September with a peak around 4C. The CCSC/IRI plumes average went up from the July 20 to the August 19 forecast. The early September BOM forecast had a similar peak to the early August one. Yea, the EURO was better...but I'm willing to bet that the CANSIPS and JAMSTEC have missed by more than the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 58 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Bom weekly data runs hotter than other agencies so you gotta compare apples to apples. The latest forecast compared to the one from just under a month ago: Yep, the BoM monthly relative peak actually rose ~0.1 over the last month to ~+3.7, very much unlike the drop of 0.5 of the CFSv2 RONI trimonthly peak. Also, it unlike most others keeps it almost that high in Dec. I expect BoM will bust significantly too warm for this progged relative monthly peak of +3.7 like it did in 2023, when it was the warmest and verified way too warm. Also, note that every month since April on the BoM has busted significantly too warm. One can even see that for Aug by comparing your two graphs: the Aug 8th run had Aug way up at +2.7. The Sep 5th run lowered it down to +2.35. (I believe that the BoM uses a different dataset anomaly that makes it warmer than NOAA as you probably realize. I think it uses the warmer CRW as a base at least to an extent. That only adds to confusion.) The BoM (AUS-Access) had a whopping +2.9 for its peak forecast in its Sept ‘23 run! NDJ verified 0.9 too warm and DJF verified 1.1 too warm vs the NOAA ONI table seen at the link at the bottom of this post: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 54 minutes ago, GaWx said: Yep, the BoM monthly relative peak actually rose ~0.1 over the last month to ~+3.7, very much unlike the drop of 0.5 of the CFSv2 RONI trimonthly peak. Also, it unlike most others keeps it almost that high in Dec. I expect BoM will bust significantly too warm for this progged relative monthly peak of +3.7 like it did in 2023, when it was the warmest and verified way too warm. Also, note that every month since April on the BoM has busted significantly too warm. One can even see that for Aug by comparing your two graphs: the Aug 8th run had Aug way up at +2.7. The Sep 5th run lowered it down to +2.35. (I believe that the BoM uses a different dataset anomaly that makes it warmer than NOAA as you probably realize. I think it uses the warmer CRW as a base at least to an extent. That only adds to confusion.) The BoM (AUS-Access) had a whopping +2.9 for its peak forecast in its Sept ‘23 run! NDJ verified 0.9 too warm and DJF verified 1.1 too warm vs the NOAA ONI table seen at the link at the bottom of this post: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/ I think assuming the relatively poor verification of a single month of August is bad logic. Every month prior to the past verified near or higher than models effectively. The warm water is still there and will eventually head west. BOM RONI forecast of 3.7 is effectively an ERSSTv6 RONI forecast of 3.0. Given the sst dataset and satellite integration. Its in line with other models just biased that warm direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I think assuming the relatively poor verification of a single month of August is bad logic. Every month prior to the past verified near or higher than models effectively. The warm water is still there and will eventually head west. BOM RONI forecast of 3.7 is effectively an ERSSTv6 RONI forecast of 3.0. Given the sst dataset and satellite integration. It’s in line with other models just biased that warm direction. I said in my post that EVERY month since April verified significantly too warm. That’s five months in a row, not just August. I pointed out Aug because your two maps showed how much Aug had to be revised down. But April, May, June, and July also had to be similarly revised significantly down. Like for Aug, I’m talking about when each was the then current month. In other words, these were very poor forecasts considering they were then the first month. I’ve got all of the maps saved and can post them if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: I said in my post that EVERY month since April verified significantly too warm. That’s five months in a row, not just August. I pointed out Aug because your two maps showed how much Aug had to be revised down. But April, May, June, and July also had to be similarly revised significantly down. Like for Aug, I’m talking about when each was the then current month. In other words, these were very poor forecasts considering they were then the first month. I’ve got all of the maps saved and can post them if necessary. And im talking about the peak. 3.4 taking a bit longer to get to the forecast heights does not mean that the peak will be wrong. The record trades are there..the record subsurface etc. The ecwmf from a few days ago had a RONI of 2.15 for July with a peak around 3.3C. The BOM RONI of 2.25 with a peak of 3.7C is not even that different relative to its own dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: And im talking about the peak. 3.4 taking a bit longer to get to the forecast heights does not mean that the peak will be wrong. The record trades are there..the record subsurface etc. The ecwmf from a few days ago had a RONI of 2.15 for July with a peak around 3.3C. The BOM RONI of 2.25 with a peak of 3.7C is not even that different relative to its own dataset. This is what I predicted on 8/24/26 for monthly/trimonthly RONI peaks (+3.0/+2.8), which would still be record warm peaks. I’m sticking with these for now. Let’s see what happens. I’ll use NOAA for verification, of course: “I’m now predicting that the actual monthly RONI peak (in or near Nov) will only be ~+3.0 with a trimonthly peak only ~+2.8. That +2.8 trimonthly would still be a record warm RONI going back to 1950 beating 1982’s +2.4. So, it would still be historic for sure. But it wouldn’t be nearly as warm as the ~+3.3-3.5 trimonthly RONI peak of many runs of various models.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: Meanwhile, for those planning on a fishing trip off Japan, PDO up to -.73 as of yesterday. Thanks, Mitch. That means the WCS PDO has risen ~0.92 over just the last 9 reporting days, and that’s the highest daily WCS PDO since way back on June 30th: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 48 minutes ago, GaWx said: This is what I predicted on 8/24/26 for monthly/trimonthly RONI peaks (+3.0/+2.8), which would still be record warm peaks. I’m sticking with these for now. Let’s see what happens. I’ll use NOAA for verification, of course: “I’m now predicting that the actual monthly RONI peak (in or near Nov) will only be ~+3.0 with a trimonthly peak only ~+2.8. That +2.8 trimonthly would still be a record warm RONI going back to 1950 beating 1982’s +2.4. So, it would still be historic for sure. But it wouldn’t be nearly as warm as the ~+3.3-3.5 trimonthly RONI peak of many runs of various models.” Isnt a NOAA monthly RONI peak of 3.0 equivalent to 3.6 for BOM? Like what's even the issue lol. There's an approximate difference of 0.6C in the July verification data between ERSSTv6 and the GAMSSA. NOAA's ERSSTv6 does not use any satellite SST data and has 2x2 degree resolution. Its extremely conservative compared to the verification data for ECMWF and BOM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 55 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Isnt a NOAA monthly RONI peak of 3.0 equivalent to 3.6 for BOM? Like what's even the issue lol. There's an approximate difference of 0.6C in the July verification data between ERSSTv6 and the GAMSSA. NOAA's ERSSTv6 does not use any satellite SST data and has 2x2 degree resolution. It’s extremely conservative compared to the verification data for ECMWF and BOM. July ‘26 ERSSTv6 relative 3.4 was +1.333 per this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt Do you have a link to the monthly GAMSSA data? Using the image below, the July ‘26 relative 3.4 BoM is ~+1.7 meaning a difference of ~0.37 between it and ERSSTv6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 5 hours ago, GaWx said: This is what I predicted on 8/24/26 for monthly/trimonthly RONI peaks (+3.0/+2.8), which would still be record warm peaks. I’m sticking with these for now. Let’s see what happens. I’ll use NOAA for verification, of course: “I’m now predicting that the actual monthly RONI peak (in or near Nov) will only be ~+3.0 with a trimonthly peak only ~+2.8. That +2.8 trimonthly would still be a record warm RONI going back to 1950 beating 1982’s +2.4. So, it would still be historic for sure. But it wouldn’t be nearly as warm as the ~+3.3-3.5 trimonthly RONI peak of many runs of various models.” I went 2.4 to 2.6 for a tri monthly RONI peak a few weeks ago...could be a touch conservative, but I find it's best to err on the side of caution when guidance is signaling an unprecedented anomaly. It looked even worse then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 5 hours ago, GaWx said: July ‘26 ERSSTv6 relative 3.4 was +1.333 per this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt Do you have a link to the monthly GAMSSA data? Using the image below, the July ‘26 relative 3.4 BoM is ~+1.7 meaning a difference of ~0.37 between it and ERSSTv6: My apologies - I was referring to the August data, not July. ERSSTv6 was 1.67 in August. BOM GAMSSA was approximately 2.25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Really impressive how much stronger this event is than 1997-1998. The August upper ocean heat value of +3.23 was a new all-time record. August 1997 was only +1.79. It didn’t peak until October at +2.56. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Makes sense to me...entirely reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 @bluewaveInteresting how the EURO seasonal likes the OHRV for snowfall...maybe due to some modification of the STJ that you have referenced....also fits with a PDO that never goes wholesale positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 I'm not sure if anyone posted the RONI and ONI values, but for JJA: RONI: +1.4 ONI: +1.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Guidance is def. coming into better agreement on this remaining pretty east-based, as the CANSIPS is now in better agreement with the EURO in that regard, but I still think it tries to become more equally distributed once it peaks....but probably gets placed in the east-based bin when all said in done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I'm not sure if anyone posted the RONI and ONI values, but for JJA: RONI: +1.4 ONI: +1.8 Hopefully that gap closes a bit more, but it will be tough...maybe get it to .3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Best ENSO analog def. looks like 1997, but I still like 1982 better as a seasonal analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A tug of war between higher temps vs. copious precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The GOA low doesn't hug the coast as much as I would expect with an El Nino that east-based.....I wonder if the residual cool ENSO/MC residue is helping us a bit on the EURO. Consider how the forcing got tugged into the MC in 2023, even though the it appeared as though it should be in the Modoki region on the VP composite....almost looks like here, it's acting more like a basin-wide event even though it looks textbook east-based. Maybe the benefit of an unprecedented push eastward to get that warm pool displaced a bit. Still def. -PDO tendencies with the warmth east of Japan, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 New Copernicus Nino probabilities just came out today. Theres been little change in median prediction for relative Nino 3.4 month over month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Same charts show increases in Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 and decreases in Nino 4 compared to the early August forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Same charts show increases in Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 and decreases in Nino 4 compared to the early August forecasts. They should if they are incorporating real-time data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Congrats abq and houston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 I think we need to be careful here because the heat sink-oceans are changing the way we need to view the hemisphere when doing seasonal outlooks....there are some illusions taking place with regard to how 2023 appeared to mimic a Modoki configuration at the surface and was actually a La Nino-hybird, as this year maybe ostensibly an east-based deal acting more basin-wide as by product of all of that warmth tugging everything westward relative to expectation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Congrats abq and houston Monthly T2 DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Monthly precip DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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