2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

Comparing Oct 1st with Oct 29th, neither 3.4 nor 1+2 have changed much:

 

 

But Nino 3 has had a steady rise:

Nino 4 ended up ~same but that’s because after a 1st half drop it had a sharp rise last 5 days:

[chris21]

Either way it's no snow so warmer and sunnier would be far preferable. 
 

Dec 97 had plenty of snow in southern NE and the southern Apps.


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[Prismshine Productions]

Clocks fall back tomorrow btw, tonight will be the last 2am ECMWF (next one after will be at 1am Sunday November 1st)

[jaxjagman]

More like the 97 Nino than anything,by far the Eastern Pac  into the thernocline is nothing comparable right now,you wont find much of a analog and i still would not use 2015,nothing close.While these maps are still Dec,it shouldnt change unelss the MJO just sits the whole month of Nov into the IO,which would be rare in a strong Ninio

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Dec 97 had plenty of snow in southern NE and the southern Apps.


.

Yes and a record breaking ice storm up north too. Any idea what it did in the Poconos Chris? I was on Long Island for that winter but I'm now at my other house in the Poconos at 1551 feet. I might need to get ready for ice storms up here. I hope not because I have electric heat. I have propane fireplaces too but I don't want to use them unless I really need to.

 

[GaWx]

 Whereas the progged drop in the 10 hPa 60N winds is quite impressive, the progged overall temp. rise of the 60-90N region at 10 hPa (~5-6C and only to ~-57C vs early Nov record of -43C and others in Jan/Feb rising 15-20C) is not because it is mainly on the Russian side with less on our side of the pole:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

So no hopes are going to get dashed since expectations were lowered in accordance to how extreme an east based event this has become. 

I'm not as resigned to a bottom-dweller season as you are.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my track record for the 15 cities that I do seasonal snowfall forecasts for....mid Atlantic killed me in a couple of seasons....13th will be next week.

 

 

 

 

[TriPol]

Does anybody use Open Mateo? If so, what kind of experiences do they have?

[BuffaloWeather]

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

[WinterWolf]

39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

A history that’s only what…As old as recent modern records lol?   Ya, that’s not a huge history/data set in the grand scheme of things.  And if that’s the only thing you are considering…then maybe you aren’t seeing the full picture either.  Just saying.. 

[SnoSki14]

41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

Warm and rainy lock it in. There's zero cold air anywhere.  

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Warm and rainy lock it in. There's zero cold air anywhere.  

Lmao… There really shouldn’t be on 10/30. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Clocks fall back tomorrow btw, tonight will be the last 2am ECMWF (next one after will be at 1am Sunday November 1st)


 

Models coming out earlier.  Great sign.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

This can't be a serious post. It is not even winter yet and we never even had an El Nino this strong so we dont know the winter impacts. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Warm and rainy lock it in. There's zero cold air anywhere.  

Always like that in October.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not as resigned to a bottom-dweller season as you are.

At this point all we are discussing are potential futures. The antecedent CONUS May through October warmth and the intensity of the ENSO SST warming has been the highest on record for a developing super El Niño.

So should this continue through the winter, it raises the potential for a warmer outcome averaged out through DJF than 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024.

There also could be monthly variability in terms of the where the warmest departures and strongest 500 mb ridging become established which deviate in ways from those years. 

So month to month comparisons may vary from those years with the sum total of the DJF average 90 day warmth exceeding those years.

We probably won’t know for sure the specific details outcome for each individual month until those months are underway. 

Also note that the seasonal forecast models from a month or more out significantly missed the magnitude of the warmth. Even forecasts issued during the first week of the month were often too cool. 

So we may continue to see the  models play catch up on the warmth the closer in time we get to the forecast period.

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Really curious how the ENSO would have been back in the Pangea years... Hotter planet with no ice caps

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[snowman19]

As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December
 

 

And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run

@donsutherland1

[BuffaloWeather]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This can't be a serious post. It is not even winter yet and we never even had an El Nino this strong so we dont know the winter impacts. 

We know the impacts of weaker Ninos and it isnt good for winter lovers. They're all very warm. The effects will be amplified. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We know the impacts of weaker Ninos and it isnt good for winter lovers. They're all very warm. The effects will be amplified. 

Your area will still see plenty of snow. You got the lakes .

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December
 

 

And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run

@donsutherland1

 

Makes you wonder if indeed the large SST anomaly in 1&2, 3 contributed to the SSW if it will also repeat. If that was a contributor to current warming then I think its inevitable it will occur again. If it does not occur again, then its likely that was not the cause of the current warming. 

But I would caution also, the same people warning about not taking seriously the stratosphere forecasts when it was showing a warming, need to be just as cautious about a long-range super recovery forecast. Bias is ridiculous. Recovery is a guarantee without other hits, and strong SPV would not be unusual considering the setup, however, could very well be overdone as well. 

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, EasternLI said:

1877-1878.... There's that year coming up again. I'm not sure how accurate reanalysis is, but let's say it's reasonable. I had dug into it a little bit. That is actually an exceptionally intriguing year, especially in light of the early season progression we're seeing now. Look at the month by month from that year. Different timing, much earlier this year. However, watch how it evolves for November and December vs what we've already seen so far.

Nov 1877- Big cyclonic anomaly near Iceland to start off. We've already done that this year, and they had a record storm in Iceland out of it. Also some blocking, near the Urals.

Dec-1877- Big cyclonic anomaly amplified that Ural blocking. Eerily similar to the way we achieved the monster Ural block this year. I'd put my money on there having been a disturbance in the stratosphere that year too. Something like what we've been keeping track of happening now. It's almost like it's all connected to the el nino, stratosphere included 

 

One mainstay feature of that entire season, was the big ridge near Hudson Bay in Canada. Ensembles sure are advertising plenty of that to come currently.

 

Is this the playbook we're following? I don't know, but that early sequence has some striking similarities to ours. Check out the stubborn ridging east of Japan that year as well...

 

My expectations for the winter are in the basement. They have been all along. I couldn't possibly bury them any deeper than where they started. There is only one thing that I personally expect we will achieve this season, a record Pacific Jet. I am, however, also willing to remain open minded for surprises at the same time. This event is interesting as hell to me though, regardless of whatever winter does.

 

Here's that whole season, November -> March 1877-1878:

 

I actually wouldn't mind something like 1877-78 here at all. I mean, id NEVER wish for it outright, but saddled with a super nino, its not a bad outcome in the Great Lakes region (further northwest into MN and Southern Canada a different story). 

With records somewhat limited, im going strictly off Detroit data, but a reasonable amount of extrapolation for nearby areas can be done. After a bit of snow and cold around Thanksgiving, December torched, then much colder and snowier weather hit in January and February, including a huge snowstorm. It was still a bit milder than average, but in prime climo months it wasnt prohibitive at all in getting solid winter weather here. The torch returned in March and April. 

It certainly made for a much shorter winter than we are used to, but if im forced to have a limited winter, why not get the best weather in the prime time instead of november, march and april. Also, a scenario like that isnt at all unrealistic in recent times, as Jan/Feb, especially Jan, have seen almost no warming at all, unlike Dec and Mar. 

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes and a record breaking ice storm up north too. Any idea what it did in the Poconos Chris? I was on Long Island for that winter but I'm now at my other house in the Poconos at 1551 feet. I might need to get ready for ice storms up here. I hope not because I have electric heat. I have propane fireplaces too but I don't want to use them unless I really need to.

 

Not to nitpick but the ice storm was Jan 1998. 

But yes. Nov-Jan 1997-98 was fine here for a strong Nino. Plenty of snowfalls. February was the disaster no-show. March saw a winter comeback of sorts but most of it stayed west of me.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

I'd prefer to have a la nina next winter--and I really dislike ninas because I live in the Mid-atlantic meaning I'm too far north for sliders AND too far west for Miller Bs. BUT...long game...if we can get la nina next year, it can do the stupid double dip thing in 28-29, then it can peter out and we can hope for a nino with a solar minimum! Who says no? 

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

WHO thinks this is going to be a good winter? @40/70 Benchmark, myself and others have marveled at this statement which gets thrown around here somewhat frequently and yet no one can point out a SINGLE person who says this will be a "good winter". I guess saying that it will snow in places that have never seen a winter without multiple snowfalls means a "good winter". 

The mere idea of no snow in the Great Lakes region with shorts from Christmas to Valentines day is absolutely ridiculous. Guarantee ill be wearing sweaters and worst case scenario enjoying a much lower heating bill than usual. Its amazing how some people lose their grasp on reality of how the weather works. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Your area will still see plenty of snow. You got the lakes .

In 2023-24 the Gaylord area in NW lower MI saw like 80" of snow and considered it a non winter. (They had record snow last winter). The mere idea of no snow in the lakes is insane.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December
 

 

And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run

@donsutherland1

Wonder if Margarvage will post this?

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December
 

 

And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run

@donsutherland1

1. Even with this rapid recovery, which is not at all uncommon for an early SSW as climo rises well into Dec, Nov as a whole would still ~tie for the lowest avg 10 hPa/60N wind (back to 1948).

2. I’ve got RONI monthly/trimonthly peaking ~+3.0C/~+2.8C now.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December
 

 

And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run

@donsutherland1

I suspect that this is how things will play out. Historic experience with strong El Niño events, flood of Pacific air into North America, seasonal timing of the SSW (anecdotally, it seems that the polar vortex is able to recover more quickly with earlier SSW events, possibly due to the seasonal transition; during mid-winter one is dealing with a more stable regime). Moreover, the El Niño event continues to strengthen.