2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

Models really missed how east based an event this has become. Not that big of a surprise since they can’t really can’t forecast the WWBs with that much precision beyond a week or two. This is the reason that Nino 3.4 leveled off in August and Nino 4 declined. It has resulted in the highest Nino 1+2 daily anomaly on record and it’s only early September. 

 

 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out and it also shows a rather mundane warming in August vs July compared to the near record breaking rapid warming of ~1C that several models had been showing. The Nino 3.4 anomaly warmed by only 0.34:

2026   6   1.07
2026   7   1.33
2026   8   1.67

 It had been earlier progged to be >+2 for August. For example, check out this June 13-22 mean CFSv2 prog for August: +2.3, which was notably above what verified:

 

 How does August of ‘26 compare to other very warm Nino Augusts since 1950? It’s very warm but still wasn’t the warmest as 1997 was 0.18 warmer. Had it warmed to +2+ like had been progged, August would have easily been the warmest on record:

2026 +1.67

2015 +1.58

1997 +1.85

1987 +1.27

1982 +0.93

1972 +1.47

1965 +1.57

1957 +1.36

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. 

If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. 

The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently.

 

[forkyfork]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Name caller classic. 

what else am i going to do? take you seriously? lol

[mitchnick]

Just now, forkyfork said:

what else am i going to do? take you seriously? lol

So that is your best, name calling....ok

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting that while this is observably weighted E ... the 3.4 is historically high. 

[rclab]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what else am i going to do? take you seriously? lol

 

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So that is your best, name calling....ok

The prophecy ……… self fulfilled ………

 

[frontranger8]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. 

If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. 

The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently.

 

You're missing the main point. Wasn't about absolute temps, but instead warming relative to forecasts.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. 

If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. 

The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently.

 

1. My post started with “Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out”.

 Thus it should be understood by anyone following along that the entire post is talking about “relative” anomalies.

2. My entire post is addressing anomalies, not absolutes. You’re using an absolute in your example.

3. Relative anomalies are now official for NOAA and BoM at the least. 

4. The outdated traditional way of determining anomalies is currently inflated ~0.5C due to GW.

4. August of 2026 was very warm, but it wasn’t the warmest relative 3.4 anomaly on record as Aug of 1997 was 0.18 warmer.

5. The main point of my post is that the models had way too rapid warming in 3.4 from July to August. The relative anomaly in 3.4 warmed only 0.34C per ERSST, which prevented a record high relative 3.4 anomaly for Aug. like had been progged.

[EasternLI]

After falling back somewhat, albeit much less than earlier forecasts were advertising. Seemingly due to some -MT activity mostly. The next +AAM uptick is now imminent and from an already very elevated level (>+2). Likely achieving a new high for this event (>+3). This time, it seems poised to more readily affect the NH than any other time over the summer. So that will be interesting to see how that plays out and how it verifies. Right on time it feels like, to me, as we start heading through MET autumn but let's see how it goes.

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

So that is your best, name calling....ok

that's the most effort you people deserve

[EasternLI]

On the latest 30 day means of VP 200 anomalies. I see only one other event even remotely comparable to this one. 97-98 and this one looks like a beast next to that even. Super impressive stuff. I mean just look at this thing...

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting that while this is observably weighted E ... the 3.4 is historically high. 

The warmth the past couple weeks in 1.2 tops the 82-97,pretty impressive either way

[Ephesians2]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

The warmth the past couple weeks in 1.2 tops the 82-97,pretty impressive either way

If you really squint you can see the warmth around Japan dissipating a bit 

[George001]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I have children and grandchildren. Still don't worry about it. Like I said, too many other things imho that are going to "get us." lol

On the one hand, the correlation between the keeling curve and global temps is strong and well documented, so I do think as a society we should be trying to lower carbon emissions. On the other hand…. This is a healthy attitude to have, take care of the environment, do our part and reject any anxiety, emotional pain or any other useless bullshit. It is very possible to acknowledge climate change is real, advocate for change, do what we can in our personal lives, and still choose to enjoy life and maintain a positive attitude rather than dwelling on the negative. I agree with you that the name calling was immature, unnecessary, and doesn’t accomplish anything. That’s a very Snowman19/Adam thing to do. On the one hand, the correlation between the keeling curve and global temps is strong and well documented, so I do think as a society we should be trying to lower carbon emissions. On the other hand…. This is a healthy attitude to have, take care of the environment, do our part and reject any anxiety, emotional pain or any other useless bullshit. It is very possible to acknowledge climate change is real, advocate for change, do what we can in our personal lives, and still choose to enjoy life and maintain a positive attitude rather than dwelling on the negative. I agree with you that the name calling was immature, unnecessary, and doesn’t accomplish anything. That’s something Snowman19/Adam would do. Does Forky know his shit about CC and meteorology? Yeah he does, but he has a lot of growing up to do.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Ephesians2 said:

If you really squint you can see the warmth around Japan dissipating a bit 

WTF does that have to do with South America?

[Ephesians2]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

WTF does that have to do with South America?

Not sure what you mean. It's part of the -PDO that has been around for years and was why 2023-24 was so weird. 

Hopefully we see that warm blob actually break down into the fall. 

[jaxjagman]

27 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Not sure what you mean. It's part of the -PDO that has been around for years and was why 2023-24 was so weird. 

Hopefully we see that warm blob actually break down into the fall. 

Never has there been a -PDO AT the end of August in a strong NinoWhile analogs if you find one in which i doubt you will at least ATM look like 1982 not 1997 and especially 2015.

[raindancewx]

Summer heat over the West looks like it has been destroyed, as Sept has been cold so far over some of the warmest areas, with more cooler than average temps coming for a while. Especially with significant rains likely from the dying East Pacific hurricane running north. Our local pattern of "every day is 90-105" has finally broken in Sept, which is nice. More rain forecast will help if it verifies.

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 hours ago, Ephesians2 said:

Not sure what you mean. It's part of the -PDO that has been around for years and was why 2023-24 was so weird. 

Hopefully we see that warm blob actually break down into the fall. 

2023 was weird bc of weaker nino forcing due to warm global tropics

[mitchnick]

Updated Euro a touch warmer this run. DJF and JFM T2.

[mitchnick]

H5 DJF & JFM

[mitchnick]

850 DJF & JFM

[mitchnick]

Precip DJF & JFM

[mitchnick]

Link for everything on Euro seasonal 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

[OSUmetstud]

Nino 1+2 end up on the higher side of the average. The decreasing warm anomaly in Nino 4 was a big miss...falling completely outside of the ensemble spread. The forecasts for both Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 were near the bottom of guidance. RONI makes a difference but the sst analysis/database matters a lot too. ERA5/OSTIA puts the Nino 3.4 RONI around 2.1C whereas NOAA ERSSTv6 puts it at 1.7C. This is due to both very high resolution (0.05 degrees) and the inclusions of satellite-based SST analysis. 

The best forecasts from ECMWF from today and CPC/IRI plumes from late August still show this as a clearly record breaking Nino event with a RONI peak between 3 and 3.5C. 

 

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Link for everything on Euro seasonal 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

Looks warm/wet like many have said. Probably under 10" snows in the NYC metro.  Very 97-98 like 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks warm/wet like many have said. Probably under 10" snows in the NYC metro.  Very 97-98 like 

For coastal locations, it'll be harder for snow, but it'll still be dependent on exact track and surface High locations. But if the precip forecasts from all the seasonal modeling are correct, there will at least be a lot of chances. If nothing else, it won't be a boring winter.

[forkyfork]

 

[EasternLI]

Yeah, next big WWB just getting underway now.