February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[nycsnow]

Boring weather followed by a rain threat Monday…. Really thought things were gonna be different after the January storm 

[donsutherland1]

57 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Probably similar to just about everyone else - right most of the time but busts sometimes - Collier holds a Bachelor's degree in Meteorology and a Bachelor of Science in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and The University of Tulsa..

I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims.

The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. 

I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one.

[nycsnow]

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A deep Pacific trof is expected to spawn low pres E of the Rockies
by Sat, then track it across the Southeast and offshore by Mon,
potentially passing close enough to impact the local area. The
modeling has been consistent with the general idea of the storm, but
there remains a high amount of uncertainty with the details.

Most of the data suggests a W to E, or SW to NE type track, not
making a big hook up the coast. The arctic air thus far looks
limited, so this could be a sys with a lot of mixed pcpn and rain,
with a decent freezing rain threat inland if the low tracks to the S
and the flow remains backed at the sfc. Too far out to have
confidence in the details, and with the AIGFS consistently S of the
area, it could end up being just a glancing blow or nothing at all.
Still, with the multi-model support, the NBM is producing a 60-70
pop for the event. Stuck with the NBM for the fcst, but of all the
fields the temps in particular may be much too high for the event if
the flow remains backed and CAD occurs

[Brian5671]

RGEM GFS and NAM have 1-2 inches just north of NYC tomorrow night

[Roger Smith]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Whatever the merits of this map, arctic cold does not arrive in the west from the central Pacific. It builds down from the Yukon. 

[ForestHillWx]

Work took me down Seaside today; I’ve never seen the Barnegat Bay frozen solid from shore to shore. 

Manasquan inlet up by Point was open water, but down by the Route 37 bridge it was frozen solid.

 

[JustinRP37]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims.

The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. 

I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one.

Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is the worst map I have ever seen. Everything about it is wrong. Its probably a map created by AI where the prompter asked for a map showing a warm transition It's the only explanation. There is absolutely no meteorology behind this map

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now. 

and setting up a FB page and website and promoting yourself as an expert and getting people to pay you for your services is even easier !

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now. 

That's quite worrisome, especially when it comes to science. Science is truly at the cutting edge of knowledge creation and, if expertise is watered down, it will have an adverse impact on that outcome. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

How is this evidence of anything?

 

At least the colors are pretty.

[guinness77]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM GFS and NAM have 1-2 inches just north of NYC tomorrow night

Looks like rain only NYC/LI. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims.

The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. 

I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one.

Greenland blocking is usually warm East/cold West in March. I thought it was some time in late April or May that it flips.

[SnoSki14]

58 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Boring weather followed by a rain threat Monday…. Really thought things were gonna be different after the January storm 

Welcome to an average winter. The winters of 00s and 10s are long gone. I just hope we do get rain, we need it.

[weatherpruf]

18 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now. 

young men are failing out of school like crazy. i know lots of them. hence the efforts to stem the flow. my friend's daughter is in med school and can practically count the males on one hand......seeing it across the board in many professions. my son finished his masters and he was the only man in his whole cohort, in a science degree.

[nycsnow]

Euro ai continues to be way south for Presidents’ Day 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Euro ai continues to be way south for Presidents’ Day 

Next weekends event is not set in stone - amazing how many are assuming its just going to be plain rain........

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Next weekends event is not set in stone - amazing how many are assuming its just going to be plain rain........

been awhile since we even had plain rain. 

[ForestHillWx]

I have to remind myself the average splits at MMU are roughly 38/24 and increasing. Going down to 10 again tonight. 

With a well timed system we can clean up. Let’s see if we can land one. 

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Next weekends event is not set in stone - amazing how many are assuming it’s just going to be plain rain........

Upton mentioned what the ai euro kinda just showed it can also be a complete miss as well

[NyWxGuy]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Welcome to an average winter. The winters of 00s and 10s are long gone. I just hope we do get rain, we need it.

Record warm SST anomalies in the North Pacific, including year after year of marine heatwaves, continue to push a fast northern stream which is why it's been impossible to get a traditional, benchmark KU storm aside from 2021 and 2022 (for part of our forum). Until we see some sort of decline in North Pacific SSTs, this problem will continue. 

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Upton mentioned what the ai euro kinda just showed it can also be a complete miss as well

and then you have to consider the strong LP along the mid- atlantic coast shown on the 12Z Canadian - lets see if the Canadian shows that at 0Z

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Greenland blocking is usually warm East/cold West in March. I thought it was some time in late April or May that it flips.

That's incorrect. The opposite is true. Winter/early spring is cold; it flips later spring/summer. Here are 500 mb anomalies and temperature anomalies for March Greenland blocks:

 

Here are mean temperatures for NYC (1980-2025):

March 1-15: NAO -0.50 or below: 39.3°; NAO +0.50 or above: 41.5°

March 16-31: NAO -0.50 or below: 43.3°; NAO +0.50 or above: 46.4°

Finally, what does AI say about the posted map under discussion?

Here's ChatGPT 5.2's response:

Gemini's Output:

[nycsnow]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and then you have to consider the strong LP along the mid- atlantic coast shown on the 12Z Canadian - lets see if the Canadian shows that at 0Z

Canadian would be the best solution for most… was very close to all snow for nyc Long Island as well… front end to rain 

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

Record warm SST anomalies in the North Pacific, including year after year of marine heatwaves, continue to push a fast northern stream which is why it's been impossible to get a traditional, benchmark KU storm aside from 2021 and 2022 (for part of our forum). Until we see some sort of decline in North Pacific SSTs, this problem will continue. 

Or a marine heatwave somewhere else counteracts it. It’ll be interesting next winter if we go into a Nino, hopefully the western Pacific warmth can shift east and nudge the forcing east of the Dateline. 

[nycsnow]

[donsutherland1]

The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return. After mid-month, highs could begin to reach the lower 40s.

Tomorrow will see the temperature reach or exceed freezing. Wednesday will be even milder with the temperature topping out in the upper 30s. A cold front will likely cross the region, possibly touching off a few snow flurries or showers. It will turn somewhat cooler into the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +4.66 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.895 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.2° (4.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.