February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SACRUS]

Today's Splits:

EWR: 44 / 37 (+5)
NYC" 42 / 6 (+2)

[ForestHillWx]

Getting some good rain this morning; the snow pack remains strong in my area, but a few thinner areas have developed. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

Drought map --

CA, no drought in the state
I thought northern FL got a soaking rain this week from that southern storm.
Part of north Jersey? You guys up there seeing this?
Part of Northern Arkansas, wow.

[Snowlover11]

Raining at work in yonkers, once across the bridge it was a mix. Sleeting here in Nanuet.

[Freezing Drizzle]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Raining at work in yonkers, once across the bridge it was a mix. Sleeting here in Nanuet.

[BxEngine]

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Raining at work in yonkers, once across the bridge it was a mix. Sleeting here in Nanuet.

Yea had a glaze on my car, still a mix bouncing off everything. 

[Brian5671]

rain just started here

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

There have been 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC. The 10 day periods and how many occurred during each period are listed below. Quite a drop-off after Feb 18th.

No.	10 Day Period
1	Nov 21-30
1	Dec 1-10
5	Dec 11-20
7	Dec 21-30
3	Dec 31-Jan 9
3	Jan 10-Jan 19
11	Jan 20- Jan 29
10	Jan 30-Feb 8
12	Feb 9-Feb 18
4	Feb 19-Feb 28
4	Feb 29-Mar 10
4	Mar 11-Mar 20
1	Mar 21-Mar 30
1	Mar 31- Apr 9
1	Apr 10- Apr 19
68	Total

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Getting some good rain this morning; the snow pack remains strong in my area, but a few thinner areas have developed. 

Three day total here = .41".  Snow depth is dwindling.  With about 85% coverage I've got an average depth of 4".  South facing lawns and slopes showing good amount of bare ground.

[MJO812]

Another storm to watch next week and cold first week of March on gfs

[donsutherland1]

Any showers will depart early tomorrow. Highs will likely reach the lower and middle 40s afterward. 

Another storm will likely bring snow to the region Sunday into Monday. The potential exists for a major snowfall. At present, a 8"-12" snowfall appears likely in New York City and its nearby suburbs. Somewhat lesser amounts are likely north and west of New York City. A 12"-18" snowfall is possible across southern and central New Jersey and part of Long Island. Near blizzard and blizzard conditions are possible at the height of the storm late Sunday night into Monday morning. This is a dynamic event and large revisions may still be possible. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was -2.11 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.386 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.8° (4.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°, but the forecast development of an AO+ regime could lead to a sufficiently mild outcome to result in a winter mean temperature that exceeds freezing. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[Stormlover74]

8 years ago we hit 81 degrees!

[wthrmn654]

Today looks to be the day I finally got 40! Already 39.4°F

[Prue11]

43.8 we’ve had some big storms after a warm day 

[bluewave]

On 2/20/2026 at 9:52 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

There have been 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC. The 10 day periods and how many occurred during each period are listed below. Quite a drop-off after Feb 18th.

No.	10 Day Period
1	Nov 21-30
1	Dec 1-10
5	Dec 11-20
7	Dec 21-30
3	Dec 31-Jan 9
3	Jan 10-Jan 19
11	Jan 20- Jan 29
10	Jan 30-Feb 8
12	Feb 9-Feb 18
4	Feb 19-Feb 28
4	Feb 29-Mar 10
4	Mar 11-Mar 20
1	Mar 21-Mar 30
1	Mar 31- Apr 9
1	Apr 10- Apr 19
68	Total

Yeah, roughly similar for the entire OKX forecast zones. The statistics below go back to 2010. It’s good to finally see an event in late February which hasn’t happened since 2010. February has really been more frontloaded for these major 12”+ events. 

Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms

Oct 29-Nov 15.....3

Nov 16-Nov 30....0

Dec 1- Dec 15.....0

Dec 16-Dec 31....3

Jan1-Jan 15.......4

Jan16-Jan 31.....7

Feb 1-Feb 15.....7

Feb 16-Feb 28...1

Mar 1- Mar 15....6

Mar 16-Mar 31...1

Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

Individual events and the highest snowfall totals

2026 

Jan 25-26….Bridgeport…15.3”

2022

Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7

2021

Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1

2020

Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4

2019

Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0

2018

Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8

Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0

Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8

2017

Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5

Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0

Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5

2016

Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0

Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5

2015

Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0

Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5

2014

Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7

Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0

Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5

2013

Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0

Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9

2012

Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5

Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0

2011

Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0

Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0

Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0

2010

Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5

Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8

Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2

2009

Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

[TJW014]

Calm before the storm. Sun feels great, even had the windows down driving along the beach. Got my photogrammetry flights in with the drone, building maps now. Beach is gonna look a whole lot different in 48 hours. 

[weatherpruf]

46 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Calm before the storm. Sun feels great, even had the windows down driving along the beach. Got my photogrammetry flights in with the drone, building maps now. Beach is gonna look a whole lot different in 48 hours. 

calm winds. fish always bite best before a storm. if anyone's insane enough to try it

[donsutherland1]

Following a day when springlike warmth brought about a torrent of melting and hint that the worst of winter is now in the past, a major blizzard is poised to engulf the region in a blinding, swirling wall of white. Last Tuesday, the AIFS signaled a possible major storm. Afterward, when all the other guidance retreated, the GFS kept the torch burning. Now, the region is set to experience its most severe blizzard in perhaps a decade.

A rapidly developing storm will bring heavy snow and high winds to the region later tomorrow into Monday. Any early snow or mixed precipitation during the morning will be light and inconsequential. 

At present, a 16"-22" snowfall appears likely in New York City and its nearby suburbs. Somewhat lesser amounts are likely north and west of New York City. A 18"-24" snowfall is likely across central New Jersey and part of Long Island. Blizzard conditions are likely at the height of the storm late Sunday night into Monday morning across much of the region. Winds will likely gust near 60 mph creating extremely low visibilities and large drifts. 

Final estimates:

Allentown: 8"-12"
Atlantic City: 8"-16"
Baltimore: 4"-8"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 18"-24"
Bridgeport: 14"-20"
Harrisburg: 4"-8"
Hartford: 8"-12"
Islip: 18"-24"
New York City: 16"-22"
Newark: 16"-22"
Philadelphia: 12"-18"
Providence: 18"-24"
Scranton: 3"-6"
Washington, DC: 3"-6"
Wilmington: 12"-18"

As a result, Winter 2025-2026 will become just the 10th winter with two 10" or above snowstorms in New York City. The others are 1895-1996, 1925-1926, 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1995-1996, 2003-2004, 2009-2010 (3 such storms), 2010-2011, and 2013-2014. Even more impressive, Winter 2025-2026 will be on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 30.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was +3.70 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.601 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.7° (4.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.6 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

 

[Freezing Drizzle]

43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following a day when springlike warmth brought about a torrent of melting and hint that the worst of winter is now in the past, a major blizzard is poised to engulf the region in a blinding, swirling wall of white. Last Tuesday, the AIFS signaled a possible major storm. Afterward, when all the other guidance retreated, the GFS kept the torch burning. Now, the region is set to experience its most severe blizzard in perhaps a decade.

A rapidly developing storm will bring heavy snow and high winds to the region later tomorrow into Monday. Any early snow or mixed precipitation during the morning will be light and inconsequential. 

At present, a 16"-22" snowfall appears likely in New York City and its nearby suburbs. Somewhat lesser amounts are likely north and west of New York City. A 18"-24" snowfall is likely across central New Jersey and part of Long Island. Blizzard conditions are likely at the height of the storm late Sunday night into Monday morning across much of the region. Winds will likely gust near 60 mph creating extremely low visibilities and large drifts. 

Final estimates:

Allentown: 8"-12"
Atlantic City: 8"-16"
Baltimore: 4"-8"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 18"-24"
Bridgeport: 14"-20"
Harrisburg: 4"-8"
Hartford: 8"-12"
Islip: 18"-24"
New York City: 16"-22"
Newark: 16"-22"
Philadelphia: 12"-18"
Providence: 18"-24"
Scranton: 3"-6"
Washington, DC: 3"-6"
Wilmington: 12"-18"

As a result, Winter 2025-2026 will become just the 10th winter with two 10" or above snowstorms in New York City. The others are 1895-1996, 1925-1926, 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1995-1996, 2003-2004, 2009-2010 (3 such storms), 2010-2011, and 2013-2014. Even more impressive, Winter 2025-2026 will be on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 30.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was +3.70 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.601 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.7° (4.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.6 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

 

Great article! Love the historical research, as always. Now I can amaze family and friends.

[wthrmn654]

Days below 40 streak has ended today at 43.3°F impressive from Jan 22 to today .

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

	20 Largest Snowstorms
	Central Park in NYC
Rank	Amount	Year & Date(s)
1	27.5	January 23, 2016
2	26.9	February 11-12, 2006
3	25.8	December 26-27, 1947
4	21.0	March 12-14, 1888
5	20.9	February 25-26, 2010
6	20.2	January 7-8, 1996
7	20.0	December 26-27, 2010
8	19.8	February 16-17, 2003
9	19.0	January 26-27, 2011
10	18.1	March 7-8, 1941
11	18.1	January 22-24, 1935
12	18.0	December 26, 1872
13	17.7	February 5-7, 1978
14	17.6	February 11-12, 1983
15	17.5	February 4-7, 1920
16	17.4	February 3-4, 1961
17	17.4	Jan 31-Feb1 2021
18	16.0	December 19-20, 1948
19	16.0	February 12-13, 1899
20	15.3	February 9-10, 1969

[TJW014]

What fantastic timing for the boiler for or baseboard heating to blow. Going to be at least a week or two before the new boiler arrives. Oh what fun!

[MJO812]

Winter is most likely over after today. 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is most likely over after today. 

Now we're not getting the snow tomorrow morning? I'm devastated by this news. 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is most likely over after today. 

Depends on how quickly we reach phase 7. If we can get there by the 10th we will have another window.

[IrishRob17]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is most likely over after today. 

You ok?

[MJO812]

Models have been trending south with next weeks event 

[binbisso]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Models have been trending south with next weeks event 

Plus a couple inches on Wednesday morning. Could be a very snowy week 

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is most likely over after today. 

Did the baby hack your phone?

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is most likely over after today. 

Were you joking with this comment? Not only do we have a couple more snow chances this week, but there's a potential arctic blast during the first week of March. It's not as if our wintry pattern is ending after this storm.