Snowguy66 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 How soon we forget. The models were all over the place last year. Did we all forget that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: How soon we forget. The models were all over the place last year. Did we all forget that? they are usually all over the place especially more then 5 days out thats why creating a storm thread now is not a good idea - I am really interested in what the Canadian has at 0Z - it had nothing but a LP in the Great Lakes at 12Z basically with all the southern energy and precip swinging through to its south like a front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 AIGFS is like a 2/1995 redux. ICON was going to be well south and flat this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: AIGFS is like a 2/1995 redux. ICON was going to be well south and flat this run. Snow storm, February 3-4, 1995 - Storm Summary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The only model I'm watching is the Euro AI it seems like the Euro AI has more or less been 100% this winter! Best performing model hands down!! I don't think it missed one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gfs AI is full of precip at least we won't be in drought anymore if that verified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The only model I'm watching is the Euro AI yes always good idea to put all your eggs into one basket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NEG NAO said: yes always good idea to put all your eggs into one basket if they're organic I would! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: it seems like the Euro AI has more or less been 100% this winter! Best performing model hands down!! I don't think it missed one storm Inside 120, beyond 120 its been overall not great. It was not too good on this last event, had us getting almost nothing til 2 days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Tomorrow will see highs reach the middle 40s. Some rain showers or a period of rain is likely on Wednesday into perhaps early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. A few ensemble members (20% EPS members at 2/16 12z with 6" or more snow) and occasional operational runs (2/16 6z GFS and 12z Icon) have continued to suggest the potential for a significant or major snowstorm some time in the February 21-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members will be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in such a solution. For now, one is dealing with a low probability but high-impact scenario. An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer by Wednesday or Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter. The SOI was +10.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.799 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 AI euro would end the winter with a bang. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will see highs reach the middle 40s. Some rain showers or a period of rain is likely on Wednesday into perhaps early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. A few ensemble members (20% EPS members at 2/16 12z with 6" or more snow) and occasional operational runs (2/16 6z GFS and 12z Icon) have continued to suggest the potential for a significant or major snowstorm some time in the February 21-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members will be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in such a solution. For now, one is dealing with a low probability but high-impact scenario. An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer by Wednesday or Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter. The SOI was +10.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.799 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below. Some folks here have suggested you start the storm thread when and if the time is right - some of the info you just provided can be included ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: AI euro would end the winter with a bang. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Some folks here have suggested you start the storm thread when and if the time is right - some of the info you just provided can be included ? Even if I don't start the storm thread (and I hope we will have a storm to track), people can feel free to use any information I post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Bozeman today. looks and feels like summer here. sunny and 60. not a flake of snow. Jives with my last few SLC trips. Under an inch for season. Devastating winter out west and a summer water crisis coming My son lives in Bozeman and goes to MSU. The winter they have had has made the people out there reconsider what winter is. They are blown away by how warm and dry it has been and are very concerned about fire season. Most days this winter he’s worn a T-shirt and shorts, it’s been in the 50s and 60s. A lot of unhappy locals who live there for the skiing and the outdoor recreation in winter. Rough year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 euro ai 18z is a NUKE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: My son lives in Bozeman and goes to MSU. The winter they have had has made the people out there reconsider what winter is. They are blown away by how warm and dry it has been and are very concerned about fire season. Most days this winter he’s worn a T-shirt and shorts, it’s been in the 50s and 60s. A lot of unhappy locals who live there for the skiing and the outdoor recreation in winter. Rough year. Their turn in the barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro getting better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 My location lost all the new overnight snowfall during the day today and an additional little dent out of what existed prior. Should lose a good deal more through the rest of the week. The huge mounds are losing height VERY VERY slowly. Anything on the level is showing much more noticeable progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I've never seen anything like it. 8 straight runs of the AIFS showing a significant to major+ snowstorm 6+ days out. I feel like we might be watching the meteorological equivalent of Dimaggio's 56-game hitting streak, lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro getting better Its warm. Which I guess is a risk too. With a weak system nothing to pull the cold air down so we get light rain or white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Its warm. Which I guess is a risk too. With a weak system nothing to pull the cold air down so we get light rain or white rain Its a weak system on the euro and trended better. The model has been playing catchup all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 this speaks for itself... AIFS-ENS is very similar to Feb 21. not advertising impacts like that, obviously, but it's becoming clear that this setup holds high end potential. we'll see how things trend in the coming days, but man that is uncanny 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Its a weak system on the euro and trended better. The model has been playing catchup all winter. Its a week system close to a week away - expect changes - as long as it doesn't turn into another sleet fest ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Its a week system close to a week away - expect changes - as long as it doesn't turn into another sleet fest ! At this point it's whatever. If it happens awesome, if not then spring is well on its way. Playing with house money on a solid B winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Eps improved 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 What did all but one of the phasing storms on models do 5-7 days out do this year? Talk to me Friday if models still show it. Even then take it with a big grain of salt 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 20 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: What did all but one of the phasing storms on models do 5-7 days out do this year? Talk to me Friday if models still show it. Even then take it with a big grain of salt Very true but we track lol hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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