February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

And KDIX radar is offline again as of yesterday,  surprise, surprise. 

FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 08:42:09
The KDIX radar is down at this time. Technicians will be contacted later this mo
rning to work to resolve the issue. We apologize for any inconvenience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 141455
FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 14:55:18
KDIX remains inoperable. ETs were contacted and will be in this afternoon to fur
ther evaluate. Thank you for your patience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 142224
FTMDIX
MESSAGE DATE:  FEB 14 2026 22:24
KDIX REMAINS INOPERABLE. ETS WERE UNABLE TO TROUBLESHOOT SUCCESSFULLY. RTS UNKNOWN

Considering the high amount of down time, perhaps there should be discussion about whether to replace rather than repair the radar. Downtime has been a recurrent theme since at least last summer.

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Considering the high amount of down time, perhaps there should be discussion about whether to replace rather than repair the radar. Downtime has been a recurrent theme since at least last summer.

The error is again the pedestal/ transmitter... but yes if not replace,  a major re-hab non the less. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

Temperatures are within a remarkably narrow range in this forum's area, 35 to 40F.

[wthrmn654]

And the stretch of not hitting 40°F continues. Going on now  since January 22nd! 

[donsutherland1]

A weak system will pass south of New York City tonight into early tomorrow. The temperature will likely remain near or above freezing during most of the event. Assuming a snow-liquid ratio of about 6:1 to 7:1 based on past cases with < 0.20" precipitation and lows of 31°-33° with a storm total 0.10"-0.15" QPF, New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see a coating to 1" of snow (probably 0.5”-1.0” in Central Park). A realistic high-case figure for New York City is 1.5". A few places across central New Jersey and Long Island could pick up 1"-3" of snow. Most amounts will be 2" or less in those areas.

Following the light snowfall, the clouds will break and the temperature will top out in the lower 40s in New York City. Tuesday will also see highs reach the middle 40s. A warm front will cross the region on Wednesday with some rain showers or a period of rain but its progress could slow or stall. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +15.37 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.188 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (4.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[Brian5671]

Rain this week will wash the salt away finally 

[jm1220]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

You raise important questions.

The shift in the predominant storm tracks that you observed may be the result of an ongoing structural shift in storm tracks rather than periodic cycles. Many factors are involved, including cyclical ones, but there is at least some evidence that Arctic amplification is contributing.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/10/jcli-d-16-0650.1.xml

I still suspect that by the mid-2030s, we'll have a lot more answers related to regional snowfall, etc.

 

What’s happened in central PA is definitely not a cycle unless it’s a very long term one. Like Bluewave mentioned the storms that really slam that area have essentially gone extinct. 

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is also now on board with a coastal storm on the 23rd.

 

 

Got to get within 4-5 days we haven’t had a coastal in 2 yrs 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Got to get within 4-5 days we haven’t had a coastal in 2 yrs 

I say 2 days

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What’s happened in central PA is definitely not a cycle unless it’s a very long term one. Like Bluewave mentioned the storms that really slam that area have essentially gone extinct. 

I don't disagree. The linkage to Arctic amplification likely explains much of what has been observed. 

 

 

[North and West]

gorgeous day outside 45/21 warm sun nice breeze happy valentine’s day too wow

You got ten months to sort things out, you jelly bellied brute.


.

[wthrmn654]

 

[MJO812]

What happened to the warmth

[WeatherGeek2025]

i had Central Park hitting 42 today for a high anyone know the split?

[SACRUS]

Today's split

 

EWR: 42 / 28 (0)
NYC: 40 / 32 (0)

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

What happened to the warmth

I said it was coming in March and April. That hasn't changed.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I said it was coming in March and April. That hasn't changed.

Looks like you will finally be right about the warmth.

[MJO812]

Gfs has a hecs next weekend

[MJO812]

Ukie is also on board for the 23rd. All the models are on board for a possible coastal storm.

 

We have to watch this closely . Decaying block and brief spike in PNA.

[MJO812]

Euro AI has a snowstorm next weekend and the weekend after. Back to back coastals.

[MJO812]

Euro has nothing for 23 because it focuses on a miller b for the 21. Only model doing that.

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has nothing for 23 because it focuses on a miller b for the 21. Only model doing that.

euro sucks its like the euro ai took euros job! Just saying it has not been good at all

[EasternLI]

Let's just get the 6z gfs and call it a winter 

[nycsnow]

23 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Let's just get the 6z gfs and call it a winter 

[NEG NAO]

53 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Start thinking about when to start a new storm thread.....this time period 22nd -24th has been on the radar screen for a while now

[WestBabylonWeather]

You better not start a thread 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

You better not start a thread 

agreed wait till Wednesday morning at the earliest to pin down the timing

[SACRUS]

33 / 29 cloudy.  Hope to see some clearing later today as it looks to be sun-less  much of the week.   Overall near / above avg  and wetter week ahead.    Next weekend and the period into the 23/24th looks interesting, before then, warmer and wetter with showers and light rain Wed - Fri.  

2/16 - 2/21 : Warmer - above avg overall / wetter (2/18 - 2/20)
2/22 - 2/24 : Period to watch for next system
2/25 - beyond : Overall near / below avg


 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1954)
NYC: 71 (1954)
LGA: 69 (2023)
JFK: 64 (2023)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1943)
NYC: 1 (1888)
LGA: 2 (1943)
JFK: 5 (2015)

 

Historical:

 

1898: A series of wildfires swept through South Carolina on February 16-17, 1898. Unconfirmed reports indicate that 14 people were killed, numerous homes and sawmills burned, and up to 3,000,000 acres of forest land were charred from Aiken County, S.C. to Chatham County, N.C., and east to Marlboro County, S.C. There were probably a dozen wildfires raging at the same time driven by a 40 mph wind.

1899 - Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1903 - The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

 

1903: Pokegama Dam, Minnesota saw three straight days with low temperatures 50° below zero or colder, including 59° below zero on the 15th. The minus 59° established a state record for the lowest measured temperature in Minnesota. Pokegama Dam held the record until February 2nd, 1996 when the temperature fell to 60° below zero at Tower. 


1926: Binham Canyon, Utah: A deadly avalanche, Utah's worst, demolishes 14 miner's cottages and a three-story boarding house. Thirty-six are killed and 13 injured. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1930: Eureka CA reported an all-time record high of 85 degrees, a record which lasted until September of 1983. (The Weather Channel)

1936: The temperature at McIntosh SD plunged to 58 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)Both North and South Dakota would go on to set all-time heat records in the summer of 1936. 121° in Steel, North Dakota on July 6th. Gannvalley, South Dakota had 120 °F on July 5, 1936. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)
 

1943 - Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43 degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record, yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1943: Record cold prevailed in the northeastern United States. The mercury plunged to 37°F below zero at Concord, New Hampshire, and to -39 degrees at Portland, Maine. The morning low of -32°F at Falls Village, Connecticut, established a state record. The Connecticut record low was tied on January 22nd, 1961, when Coventry fell to -32°F.

1958: The greatest snowstorm of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern United States. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in interior New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches at Washington DC, and 15.5 inches at Baltimore MD. The Poconos had 36 inches and the Catskills got 30 inches. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States. (David Ludlum)


1962: Asheville, NC recorded a temperature of -23° for the coldest reading ever in North Carolina outside of the mountains. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971: The weather was changeable in NW Pennsylvania. Along a 1-mile stretch of I-80 in Venango County, 9 accidents occurred due to icy roads. In Sharon, an unusual wake-up call for a man when he was “knocked” from his bed when lightning hit his house. A fire also resulted. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1974: Record snowfall occurred at Lakelse Lake, British Columbia Canada as 46.5 inches fell over 24 hours. This record was broke 2/11/1999. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A winter storm produced snow and ice in the Ohio Valley and the Appalachian Region. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 14 inches around Farmville, while Granville NC reported eight inches of sleet and ice. Freezing rain in eastern North Carolina caused extensive damage to power lines. Gales lashed the coast of Virginia and North Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 50 mph in the Rancho Cucamonga area. Quiet weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A surge of arctic air produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth MN, 30.97 inches at Chicago IL and 30.94 inches at South Bend IN. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee WI and 30.98 inches at Rockford IL tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens GA, 87 degrees at Charleston SC, 85 degrees at Macon GA, and 86 degrees at Savannah GA were records for February. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong thunderstorms developing ahead of an arctic cold front produced severe weather across the southeastern U.S. between mid morning on the 15th and early evening on the 16th. Thunderstorms spawned thirteen tornadoes, including one which, prior to dawn on the 16th, injured eleven persons near Carrollton GA. There were also 121 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A late afternoon thunderstorm on the 15th produced baseball size hail at Jackson MS, and prior to dawn on the 16th, a thunderstorm produced high winds which injured four persons at Goodwater AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1989: A surge of arctic air on February 16-17th produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth, Minnesota, 30.97 inches at Chicago, Illinois, and 30.94 inches at South Bend, Indiana. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and 30.98 inches at Rockford, Illinois, tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens, Georgia, 87 degrees at Charleston, South Carolina, 85 degrees at Macon, Georgia, and 86 degrees at Savannah, Georgia, were records for February.

1990
The biggest winter storm of the season hit the Pacific Coast Region. In northern California, snow fell along the coast, and two-day totals in the mountains ranged up to 67 inches at Echo Summit. Snowfall totals in the mountains of southern California ranged up to 48 inches at Green Valley, with 46 inches reported at Big Bear. Up to two feet of snow blanketed the southern Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and 20 to 35 inches were reported in the northern Cascades of Oregon. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed Seattle WA.
(The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: Annandale - Barcroft Hills Weather Center had a spring like thunderstorm with 1.73 inches of rain. (Ref. Annandale Weather Records)

2003: The 5th largest snowstorm at Annandale-Barcroft Hills Weather Center in the last 23 years with a total of 15.8 inches and was the most snow since January- 6-8 -1996 when 18.1 inches was recorded. This MAJOR storm had a 2/15/2003 snow total of 1.3 inches, 2/16/2003 snow total of 13.0 inches, 2/17/2003 snow total of 1.5 inches. Yet another 7.7 inches of snow would fall before the month was over. (Ref. Annandale Weather Records)
Feb. 14th-18th: A complex storm system produced copious amounts of snow and sleet across the region. Nicknamed the President’s Weekend Snowstorm of 2003, it ranked in the top 5 of all-time regional snowstorms. The storm took a heavy toll on residents, structures, transportation systems, emergency responders, businesses, livestock, and travelers. Roads were covered by deep snow and sleet and were nearly impassible. Emergency personnel and those needing emergency transport had to be taken to their destinations in 4 wheel drives or military vehicles (see article “Loudoun and Fauquier Counties’ Finest Assist the National Weather Service during Snowstorm”). Heavy accumulations weighed down on buildings and several structural collapses occurred.
Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 4th Worst Snowstorm(Ref. Wilson More Information on This Snow Storm)

2014: Chicago February 17, 2014 at 4:15 PM Oak Park had heavy snow today and a rumble of thunder too. I know thunder was reported in the area. Oak Park had 5-6 inches and it is still snowing lightly. Midway Airport has had 72.2 inches for the season as this afternoon. O’Hare is the official station for Chicago is now 5th all time! (Ref.WGN-tv By Meteorologist Tom Skilling)

[SACRUS]

Historical Storms of note