MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Fun delivering in this! Woot! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: In the words of Tom Petty, they won't back down. Good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred1970 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Coming down at a good clip now https://hurricanebystates.com/live-stream/ YOUTUBE PAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Next weeks storm keeps trending sourh This was once a cutter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next weeks storm keeps trending sourh This was once a cutter Some years it just wants to snow. This is one of those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Some years it just wants to snow. This is one of those years. Negative NAO develops on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Negative NAO develops on the euro. how's the euro for thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: how's the euro for thursday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Gfs ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Phase 7 by the 9th. Will be one last cold and potentially snowy period. Yes it can easily snow in NYC in mid March and even early April lol. Don't really care about how long it stays on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred1970 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 MY LIVE STREAM, WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY SOUTHSHORE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Cannot get an accurate measurement due to all the blowing and drifting. It has to be at least 18". Still coming down to beat the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Phase 7 by the 9th. Will be one last cold and potentially snowy period. Yes it can easily snow in NYC in mid March and even early April lol. Don't really care about how long it stays on the ground. Phase 7 composite for Mar does have building ridging near AK which can help to direct colder air masses down to the NE US at times, and we can benefit from overrunning events. However, it is not really a cold pattern signal with the composite showing eastern US/west Atlantic ridging. I believe we really need to get into phase 8 to see a consistently colder pattern, which EPS does show by around Mar 7-8. EPS is moving the MJO along faster than GEFS. See my post in ENSO thread for details. In short, I agree with you that March has potential for snow, especially first week or so (EPS and AIFS ens showing a signal for Mar 2-4 and perhaps another overrunning event a few days after that) and last half. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 minutes ago, jconsor said: Phase 7 composite for Mar does have building ridging near AK which can help to direct colder air masses down to the NE US at times, and we can benefit from overrunning events. However, it is not really a cold pattern signal with the composite showing eastern US/west Atlantic ridging. I believe we really need to get into phase 8 to see a consistently colder pattern, which EPS does show by around Mar 7-8. EPS is moving the MJO along faster than GEFS. See my post in ENSO thread for details. In short, I agree with you that March has potential for snow, especially first week or so (EPS and AIFS ens showing a signal for Mar 3-5 and perhaps another overrunning event a few days after that) and last half. Thanks is it cold for la ninas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 On 2/19/2026 at 9:21 AM, GaWx said: 1. Note that the 2/22-23 snowstorm threat period remains mainly in phase 3, the coldest phase on avg during La Niña Febs. 2. When I calculate avg temperatures associated with each phase, I’m not assuming any lag. So, during La Niña, phase 3 was coldest on avg in Feb and phase 7 was coldest on avg in Mar, each with no lag. But also keep in mind that these are merely averages being the coldest along with spreads that cover MB to MA. For example: 1) For the coldest La Niña phase in Feb on avg, phase 3: Avg -107/73 days = -1.5, which is 4F colder than the La Niña Feb phase average of +2.5 and has easily averaged the coldest phase. Breakdown of the 18 different Feb La Nina phase 3 periods: wide range but more B/MB (7) than A/MA (5) MB: 1 B: 6 N: 6 A: 3 MA: 2 ————— 2) For the coldest La Niña phase in Mar on avg, phase 7: Avg -135/81 days = -1.7, which is 2.4F colder than the La Niña Mar average of +0.7 and has averaged the coldest phase. Breakdown of the 18 different Mar La Nina phase 7 periods: wide range but more B/MB (8) than A/MA (6) MB: 2 B: 6 N: 4 A: 3 MA: 3 @jconsor the above states phae 7 is cold for March. Not sure the diff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: @jconsor the above states phae 7 is cold for March. Not sure the diff. Larry's post was specifically about La Ninas and limited to one station - Baltimore. I think his analysis has merit and definitely is worth keeping in mind, though there is still lots of variability despite the cold lean. The composites I posted before are averages of all Mar phase 7 days, no matter what ENSO state The phase 7 neutral ENSO composites for March is pretty similar to what I showed in my previous post, with eastern US ridging and AK ridging. On the other hand, the La Nina composite is closer to what you would want for colder. Two reasons I wouldn't bank on phase 7 being cold for us this Mar- 1) The La Nina is weak and we are starting to see slow signs of atmospheric coupling with the much warmer SST in the Eastern ENSO regions. So atmosphere would probably behave closer to neutral than La Nina for Mar. 2) The phase 7 La Nina composite has a -NAO with above normal heights/hints of blocking near Greenland. No sign of that on guidance heading into early Mar. So we will have to rely on the AK ridging to deliver cold enough air for snow I think. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 4 minutes ago, jconsor said: Larry's post was specifically about La Ninas and limited to one station - Baltimore. I think his analysis has merit and definitely is worth keeping in mind, though there is still lots of variability despite the cold lean. The composites I posted before are averages of all Mar phase 7 days, no matter what ENSO state The phase 7 neutral ENSO composites for March is pretty similar to what I showed in my previous post, with eastern US ridging and AK ridging. On the other hand, the La Nina composite is closer to what you would want for colder. Two reasons I wouldn't bank on phase 7 being cold for us this Mar- 1) The La Nina is weak and we are starting to see slow signs of atmospheric coupling with the much warmer SST in the Eastern ENSO regions. So atmosphere would probably behave closer to neutral than La Nina for Mar. 2) The phase 7 La Nina composite has a -NAO with above normal heights/hints of blocking near Greenland. No sign of that on guidance heading into early Mar. So we will have to rely on the AK ridging to deliver cold enough air for snow I think. Thanks. Terrible we would hit 8 late in March which would raise the chances for another miserable April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: Next weeks storm keeps trending sourh This was once a cutter I know you will get a lot of people saying we don't want snow, but they all should. Nobody wants a cutter with feet of snow on the ground. Basements would be flooded. I love the snow, so I'll always take it, but the absolute best thing that could happen for us in a drought would be a good snow pack that slowly melts into the spring to percolate into the soil and recharge ground water. That would help tremendously. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: @jconsor the above states phae 7 is cold for March. Not sure the diff. Thanks. Keep in mind that although it has been the coldest at Baltimore during La Niña in March, that’s only the avg as there’s lots of variation: “Breakdown of the 18 different Mar La Nina phase 7 periods: wide range but more B/MB (8) than A/MA (6) MB: 2 B: 6 N: 4 A: 3 MA: 3” Thus, whereas averages are informative, they don’t tell us how any one case will actually turn out. That’s the case for any phase. Those H5 composites are just averages. Also, phase 8 has been the 2nd coldest during Mar for La Niña averaging only 1F less cold than phase 7. Aside: current storm looks like it happened during phase 3, the coldest on avg (prior to 2026) by a wide margin of any phase at Baltimore during La Niña in Feb. @jconsor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Today's CMC looks pretty good with Thursday's snow. Not gonna be a big storm but maybe we can get a few inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Bit of a model battle on the Thursday event. I sort of lean towards a flatter idea now but the setup looks sort of disjointed on many ensembles. Not sure anything over 2-4 is realistic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Bit of a model battle on the Thursday event. I sort of lean towards a flatter idea now but the setup looks sort of disjointed on many ensembles. Not sure anything over 2-4 is realistic. To be honest after today and the aftermath id rather a small 1-3/2-4 inch type storm to whiten the snow than another big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs ! Not sure where they’ll put the snow on the NJ coast if this verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 12Z AIEURO was way north...Op Euro a mixed bag mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: 12Z AIEURO was way north...Op Euro a mixed bag mess. Yep models all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Getting spoiled or no mas for a snowpack refresher in late February/early March. Oh the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now