February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Models trended wetter and warmer for next week, will obviously keep changing but regardless strong signals of next week being active 

Models shifting wildly run to run. I would tread lightly with any solution this far out. 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models shifting wildly run to run. I would tread lightly with any solution this far out. 

Agree I’m more focused on signal…. One thing starting to pop up and is getting closer is a possible light event 11th

[jm1220]

Jones Beach water temp down to 35.4 degrees. That’s pretty damn cold, coldest normally gets down to 38-39. And it’ll keep getting colder because of this weekend. 

[bluewave]

We’ll see if the guidance is correct that we will finally end the under 40° streak by later next week as we are currently in 18th place.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	35	1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08
2	34	1886-01-06 through 1886-02-08
3	33	1948-01-10 through 1948-02-11
4	26	1878-12-23 through 1879-01-17
5	25	1881-01-15 through 1881-02-08
6	23	1939-12-22 through 1940-01-13
-	23	1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14
-	23	1885-01-18 through 1885-02-09
9	22	1967-12-27 through 1968-01-17
-	22	1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25
-	22	1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06
-	22	1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15
-	22	1893-01-03 through 1893-01-24
-	22	1882-12-27 through 1883-01-17
-	22	1880-12-16 through 1881-01-06
10	21	2004-01-14 through 2004-02-03
-	21	2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06
-	21	1978-01-27 through 1978-02-16
-	21	1940-01-16 through 1940-02-05
-	21	1901-01-26 through 1901-02-15
-	21	1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16
-	21	1876-12-17 through 1877-01-06
11	20	1905-01-23 through 1905-02-11
-	20	1902-02-03 through 1902-02-22
-	20	1888-01-15 through 1888-02-03
12	19	2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01
-	19	1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18
-	19	1976-12-22 through 1977-01-09
13	18	1969-12-30 through 1970-01-16
-	18	1914-02-08 through 1914-02-25
-	18	1903-12-26 through 1904-01-12
-	18	1886-12-26 through 1887-01-12
14	17	2005-01-15 through 2005-01-31
-	17	2000-12-20 through 2001-01-05
-	17	1977-01-11 through 1977-01-27
-	17	1966-01-22 through 1966-02-07
-	17	1961-01-19 through 1961-02-04
-	17	1947-12-23 through 1948-01-08
-	17	1934-01-29 through 1934-02-14
-	17	1917-12-26 through 1918-01-11
-	17	1909-12-16 through 1910-01-01
-	17	1875-01-05 through 1875-01-21
15	16	2011-01-20 through 2011-02-04
-	16	1963-12-10 through 1963-12-25
-	16	1884-01-15 through 1884-01-30
-	16	1870-02-22 through 1870-03-09
16	15	2017-12-25 through 2018-01-08
-	15	1989-12-16 through 1989-12-30
-	15	1982-01-08 through 1982-01-22
-	15	1980-01-24 through 1980-02-07
-	15	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19
-	15	1978-01-10 through 1978-01-24
-	15	1969-12-14 through 1969-12-28
-	15	1960-02-29 through 1960-03-14
-	15	1910-01-03 through 1910-01-17
-	15	1874-01-29 through 1874-02-12
17	14	2007-01-29 through 2007-02-11
-	14	2003-02-05 through 2003-02-18
-	14	1958-02-07 through 1958-02-20
-	14	1945-12-11 through 1945-12-24
-	14	1938-01-09 through 1938-01-22
-	14	1929-01-24 through 1929-02-06
-	14	1897-01-23 through 1897-02-05
18	13	2026-01-23 through 2026-02-04

 

 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully not. We'd be dealing with a lot of pot holes and even ice jams 

Not sure how bad the overall icing situation is though compared to 2015

Its been a while since we had to be concerned with ice jams but depending on how all of this thaws, this could be the year ice jams are an issue. Low of -2 this morning, making 8 below zero readings this season, my average is 3. This season is solidy in third for below zero lows IMBY, 2013-2014 had 11 and 2014-2015 had 15, my records here go back to 2005-2006. 12" at the stake.

[WestBabylonWeather]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Jones Beach water temp down to 35.4 degrees. That’s pretty damn cold, coldest normally gets down to 38-39. And it’ll keep getting colder because of this weekend. 

I wonder how this will affect season lag on LI

[nycsnow]

12 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I wonder how this will affect season lag on LI

Gonna be a foggy and chilly spring, prob a late start to boating season to

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I wonder how this will affect season lag on LI

Will probably make backdoor front season worse. 

[nycwinter]

you can get backdoor fronts well into june..

[the_other_guy]

i’m glad we got this major snow with cold to keep the snow on the ground for a while.

 

If nothing else pans out most of us will finish the season just below normal or just above normal.

And frankly, I’m looking out and I don’t see much panning out over next week

About 5 weeks left in the game

 

[bluewave]

The Euro seasonal that was just released has a slightly cooler to average spring and summer in the Northeast.

While these long range forecasts are often low skill, they do seem to do better heading into the summer than the winter.

Would match the theme of stuck weather patterns in the 2020s as this would be a continuation of the pattern which developed last November.

Sometimes developing El Niño summers aren’t as warm like we saw back in 2023.

 

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gonna be a foggy and chilly spring, prob a late start to boating season to

Think spring could be quite brutal though it depends if it's more northwest vs easterly flow

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Low of 2° this morning.

it seems to be a crapshoot the last couple of weeks on what mornings are gonna be the mornings of good radiational cooling. This morning seemed to be one of them at least in certain areas.

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Low of 2° this morning.

it seems to be a crapshoot the last couple of weeks on what mornings are gonna be the mornings of good radiational cooling. This morning seemed to be one of them at least in certain areas.

A crap shoot for sure. The wild fluctiuons, over short distances, this winter due to radiational cooling has been rad. Up to 20 now.

[MANDA]

Gotta admire them.  Wish I had learned to surf,  that train has left the station.  Nice video though.  

https://x.com/i/status/2019349379715305856

[Freezing Drizzle]

 

If this verifies, another "one inch blizzard" effect on Saturday, like 2/2/1976?

Forecast for Staten Island - NWS

Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

 

Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature rising to near 19 by 10am, then falling to around 13 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a northwest wind 14 to 19 mph increasing to 28 to 33 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

 

[Freezing Drizzle]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

The snow pack and no wind creates some big variations in temperature. The city 21 degrees and some suburbs near zero. Even in my own yard I have two readings one between the house and garage which is 12 degrees and one in the middle of the back yard which reads 9 degrees.

Minimums for today. Yeah, great differences. Northwest and north-central NJ was particularly cold.

[SnowGoose69]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal that was just released has a slightly cooler to average spring and summer in the Northeast.

While these long range forecasts are often low skill, they do seem to do better heading into the summer than the winter.

Would match the theme of stuck weather patterns in the 2020s as this would be a continuation of the pattern which developed last November.

Sometimes developing El Niño summers aren’t as warm like we saw back in 2023.

 

I felt like all El Nino summers here have been at best average.  I just checked and since the 80s only 2002 and 2018 were above normal and that was by 0.2 and skewed mostly by August.  I was surprised to see 1991 was not above normal.  Its common to see places nearby like PA/OH average above though.  I assume 2018 may have been an issue with coupling as we saw the ensuing winter.  Makes me wonder if perhaps a sign an El Nino may not act like one in winter is a mild summer in the NE

[[email protected]]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal that was just released has a slightly cooler to average spring and summer in the Northeast.

While these long range forecasts are often low skill, they do seem to do better heading into the summer than the winter.

Would match the theme of stuck weather patterns in the 2020s as this would be a continuation of the pattern which developed last November.

Sometimes developing El Niño summers aren’t as warm like we saw back in 2023.

 

Developing En Nino summers tend to be cooler as does summers following extremely cold winters such as this one. Think 1996, 2004, 2009 and 2014 Three of the coolest summers in our area in the last 30 years. Plus, the first half of the summer of 2015 was, in our area, one of the coolest on record.

[Freezing Drizzle]

WAPO

[SACRUS]

26 / 11 nudging freezing or just above today / Friday.  WeekendArctic blast with the coldest airmass of the season started off with a whitening of the concrete snow pack .  Moderation next week towards normal and above with ridge building into the eastern 2/3 of the nation.   Tracking times - with the period 2/11 - 2/13 to watch for mix / rain and then continued busier as systems are forecast to impact the east.

 

2/5 - 2/6 : Some slight moderation with day time near / above freezing
2/7 - 2/9 : Arctic airmass - coldest of the season, clipper brings light snow/snow showers/squalls dusting - coating, perhaps an inch
2/10  - 2/15 : Moderation - at least 2 systems to watch mix / rain threats
2/16 - beyond : Warmer/wetter but a bit of a chance for cold to push into the area wiht a warmer south/west of us look

[Freezing Drizzle]

WAPO

[Freezing Drizzle]

WAPO - Incredibly dry in our area too. My humidifier has been running non-stop.

[Freezing Drizzle]

WAPO

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:
 

EWR: 69 (1991)
NYC: 70 (1991)
LGA: 70 (1991)
JFK: 66 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1996)
NYC: -6 (1918)
LGA: 6 (1995)
JFK: 7 (1996)

HIstorical:

1745: Today is National Weatherman/Meteorologist day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston, MA, in 1774, and he made the first balloon observation in 1784. You can read a narrative from the Library of Congress of the two aerial voyages of Doctor Jeffries with Mons. Blanchard: with meteorological observations and remarks.  The first voyage was on November 13th, 1784, from London into Kent. The second was on January 7th, 1785, from England into France. 

1887 - San Francisco experienced its greatest snowstorm of record. Nearly four inches was reported in downtown San Francisco, and the western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball throwing rampage. (David Ludlum)

 

1920: An intense nor'easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow over three days in New York City Central Park, New York. Boston, MA, saw 12.2 inches of snow on this day. 

 

1976: Record-breaking snowfall of just two inches fell in Sacramento, California. February 5, 1976, is the only time since November 1941 when snow was reported in Sacramento.

 

1986: A supercell thunderstorm tracked through the Tomball area northwest of Houston, TX, and produced four tornadoes along with damaging microburst winds and up to tennis ball size hail. An F3 tornado killed two people, injured 80 others, and devastated a mobile home park and the David Wayne Hooks Airport. In addition, 300 aircraft were either damaged or destroyed. Much of the more substantial hail was propelled by 60 to 80 mph winds, resulting in widespread moderate damage. The total damage from this storm was 80 million dollars.

1987 - Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region caused flooding in parts of south central Texas. Del Rio TX was soaked with two inches of rain in two hours prior to sunrise. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cold and snow invaded the southern U.S. Roswell NM was buried under 16.5 inches of snow in 24 hours, an all-time record for that location. Parts of the Central Gulf Coast Region reported their first significant snow in fifteen years. Strong winds in Minnesota and the Dakotas produced wind chill readings as cold as 75 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped much of the nation. Thirty cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 9 above at Astoria OR and 27 below zero at Ely NV were records for February. In Alaska, Point Barrow warmed to 24 degrees above zero, and Nome reached 30 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - For the second time in two days, and the third time in a week, high winds plagued the northwestern U.S. Winds in Oregon gusted to 60 mph at Cape Disappointment, and wind gusts in Washington State reached 67 mph at Bellingham. The first in a series of cold fronts began to produce heavy snow in the mountains of Washington and Oregon. Ten inches of snow fell at Timberline OR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire reaches a high of 41°F, the warmest February 5th on record at the summit and two degrees off the monthly mark, where records have been kept since 1932. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The deadliest round of tornadoes in nearly a quarter century kill 58 people in the south. The storms kill 32 people in Tennessee, 14 in Arkansas, seven in Kentucky and five in Alabama. Damage is likely to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The Super Tuesday 2008 Tornado Outbreak has been one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in the US, with 59 fatalities reported. So far, it ranks in the top 15 deadly tornado outbreaks (and the highest number of tornado deaths since 1985). According to the SPC Storm Reports, there were over 300 reports of tornadoes, large hail (up to 4.25 inches in diameter in Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri), and damaging wind gusts from Texas to Ohio and West Virginia. The outbreak produced at least 64 tornadoes, some producing EF-3 and EF-4 damage.

2010 - A mega-snowstorm, which President Obama dubbed Snowmageddon, buried the Washington D.C. area with more than 30 inches of snow in some areas. At American University in Washington the official snowfall was 27.5 inches. Snowfall totals in the Washington DC area range from a low of 17.9 inches at Ronald Reagan National Airport to 40 inches in the northern suburb of Colesville, MD. Dulles Airport reported 32.4 inches, which established a new two-day snowfall record. The Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD, measured 24.8 inches from the storm breaking the record for the largest two day snowfall there. It is one of the worst blizzards in the city's history.

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:
 

EWR: 69 (1991)
NYC: 70 (1991)
LGA: 70 (1991)
JFK: 66 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1996)
NYC: -6 (1918)
LGA: 6 (1995)
JFK: 7 (1996)

HIstorical:

1745: Today is National Weatherman/Meteorologist day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston, MA, in 1774, and he made the first balloon observation in 1784. You can read a narrative from the Library of Congress of the two aerial voyages of Doctor Jeffries with Mons. Blanchard: with meteorological observations and remarks.  The first voyage was on November 13th, 1784, from London into Kent. The second was on January 7th, 1785, from England into France. 

1887 - San Francisco experienced its greatest snowstorm of record. Nearly four inches was reported in downtown San Francisco, and the western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball throwing rampage. (David Ludlum)

 

1920: An intense nor'easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow over three days in New York City Central Park, New York. Boston, MA, saw 12.2 inches of snow on this day. 

 

1976: Record-breaking snowfall of just two inches fell in Sacramento, California. February 5, 1976, is the only time since November 1941 when snow was reported in Sacramento.

 

1986: A supercell thunderstorm tracked through the Tomball area northwest of Houston, TX, and produced four tornadoes along with damaging microburst winds and up to tennis ball size hail. An F3 tornado killed two people, injured 80 others, and devastated a mobile home park and the David Wayne Hooks Airport. In addition, 300 aircraft were either damaged or destroyed. Much of the more substantial hail was propelled by 60 to 80 mph winds, resulting in widespread moderate damage. The total damage from this storm was 80 million dollars.

1987 - Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region caused flooding in parts of south central Texas. Del Rio TX was soaked with two inches of rain in two hours prior to sunrise. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cold and snow invaded the southern U.S. Roswell NM was buried under 16.5 inches of snow in 24 hours, an all-time record for that location. Parts of the Central Gulf Coast Region reported their first significant snow in fifteen years. Strong winds in Minnesota and the Dakotas produced wind chill readings as cold as 75 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped much of the nation. Thirty cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 9 above at Astoria OR and 27 below zero at Ely NV were records for February. In Alaska, Point Barrow warmed to 24 degrees above zero, and Nome reached 30 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - For the second time in two days, and the third time in a week, high winds plagued the northwestern U.S. Winds in Oregon gusted to 60 mph at Cape Disappointment, and wind gusts in Washington State reached 67 mph at Bellingham. The first in a series of cold fronts began to produce heavy snow in the mountains of Washington and Oregon. Ten inches of snow fell at Timberline OR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire reaches a high of 41°F, the warmest February 5th on record at the summit and two degrees off the monthly mark, where records have been kept since 1932. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The deadliest round of tornadoes in nearly a quarter century kill 58 people in the south. The storms kill 32 people in Tennessee, 14 in Arkansas, seven in Kentucky and five in Alabama. Damage is likely to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The Super Tuesday 2008 Tornado Outbreak has been one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in the US, with 59 fatalities reported. So far, it ranks in the top 15 deadly tornado outbreaks (and the highest number of tornado deaths since 1985). According to the SPC Storm Reports, there were over 300 reports of tornadoes, large hail (up to 4.25 inches in diameter in Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri), and damaging wind gusts from Texas to Ohio and West Virginia. The outbreak produced at least 64 tornadoes, some producing EF-3 and EF-4 damage.

2010 - A mega-snowstorm, which President Obama dubbed Snowmageddon, buried the Washington D.C. area with more than 30 inches of snow in some areas. At American University in Washington the official snowfall was 27.5 inches. Snowfall totals in the Washington DC area range from a low of 17.9 inches at Ronald Reagan National Airport to 40 inches in the northern suburb of Colesville, MD. Dulles Airport reported 32.4 inches, which established a new two-day snowfall record. The Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD, measured 24.8 inches from the storm breaking the record for the largest two day snowfall there. It is one of the worst blizzards in the city's history.

2010 Snowmageddon - Then snowed again on the 10th?

[doncat]

Past 18 days here, every day but two have had a low temp below 20°... normal low is 23°.

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

13 this morning. 

21⁰ this am.  Consistent unusual disparity here this winter.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see if the guidance is correct that we will finally end the under 40° streak by later next week as we are currently in 18th place.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	35	1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08
2	34	1886-01-06 through 1886-02-08
3	33	1948-01-10 through 1948-02-11
4	26	1878-12-23 through 1879-01-17
5	25	1881-01-15 through 1881-02-08
6	23	1939-12-22 through 1940-01-13
-	23	1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14
-	23	1885-01-18 through 1885-02-09
9	22	1967-12-27 through 1968-01-17
-	22	1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25
-	22	1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06
-	22	1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15
-	22	1893-01-03 through 1893-01-24
-	22	1882-12-27 through 1883-01-17
-	22	1880-12-16 through 1881-01-06
10	21	2004-01-14 through 2004-02-03
-	21	2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06
-	21	1978-01-27 through 1978-02-16
-	21	1940-01-16 through 1940-02-05
-	21	1901-01-26 through 1901-02-15
-	21	1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16
-	21	1876-12-17 through 1877-01-06
11	20	1905-01-23 through 1905-02-11
-	20	1902-02-03 through 1902-02-22
-	20	1888-01-15 through 1888-02-03
12	19	2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01
-	19	1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18
-	19	1976-12-22 through 1977-01-09
13	18	1969-12-30 through 1970-01-16
-	18	1914-02-08 through 1914-02-25
-	18	1903-12-26 through 1904-01-12
-	18	1886-12-26 through 1887-01-12
14	17	2005-01-15 through 2005-01-31
-	17	2000-12-20 through 2001-01-05
-	17	1977-01-11 through 1977-01-27
-	17	1966-01-22 through 1966-02-07
-	17	1961-01-19 through 1961-02-04
-	17	1947-12-23 through 1948-01-08
-	17	1934-01-29 through 1934-02-14
-	17	1917-12-26 through 1918-01-11
-	17	1909-12-16 through 1910-01-01
-	17	1875-01-05 through 1875-01-21
15	16	2011-01-20 through 2011-02-04
-	16	1963-12-10 through 1963-12-25
-	16	1884-01-15 through 1884-01-30
-	16	1870-02-22 through 1870-03-09
16	15	2017-12-25 through 2018-01-08
-	15	1989-12-16 through 1989-12-30
-	15	1982-01-08 through 1982-01-22
-	15	1980-01-24 through 1980-02-07
-	15	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19
-	15	1978-01-10 through 1978-01-24
-	15	1969-12-14 through 1969-12-28
-	15	1960-02-29 through 1960-03-14
-	15	1910-01-03 through 1910-01-17
-	15	1874-01-29 through 1874-02-12
17	14	2007-01-29 through 2007-02-11
-	14	2003-02-05 through 2003-02-18
-	14	1958-02-07 through 1958-02-20
-	14	1945-12-11 through 1945-12-24
-	14	1938-01-09 through 1938-01-22
-	14	1929-01-24 through 1929-02-06
-	14	1897-01-23 through 1897-02-05
18	13	2026-01-23 through 2026-02-04

 

 

By my count, that is 64th place.  There are 63 streaks longer than this one.  Of course each additional day moves it up a bunch.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

A crap shoot for sure. The wild fluctiuons, over short distances, this winter due to radiational cooling has been rad. Up to 20 now.

We've been on the warmer side of those fluctuations.  Not withstanding the previous couple of winters, we're below normal for number of single digit days.