It's coming 1/31-2/1

[jerseyshorewxguy]

Euro slams cape cod.

The January 25, 1987 analog may be a good one here. That was a devastating storm for Cape Cod.


.

[NJwx85]

The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs from CIPS. Some all time greats.

1) 1/23/16

2) 12/26/10

3) 1/8/96

4) 3/3/2010 - Massive rain and wind storm 

5) 2/24/89

[North and West]

At work now… should I expect or know when I could count on any hot weenie action out yonder this weekend, or will it just be cloudy and cold?




.

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes that would be correct. It went from a miss to a massive hit at like 48hrs out. Don’t quote me on the exact timing but it was Christmas Eve.

It wasnt even 48 hours out.

 

Xmas day the totals when from 6-12 to 12-20. No one was ready for that and the disaster that unfolded in the city was the result of that

[NJwx85]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

It wasnt even 48 hours out.

 

Xmas day the totals when from 6-12 to 12-20. No one was ready for that and the disaster that unfolded in the city was the result of that

I went from Nothing in Morris County to a blizzard. I ended up with like 24” or so. 50 miles to my West had less than 6”.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I went from Nothing in Morris County to a blizzard. I ended up with like 24” or so. 50 miles to my West had less than 6”.

The models have hopefully improved since then but given how little has to change we’re all still in the game, admittedly eastern areas more. It’s not like last winter where we saw a few random weenie runs that we all knew deep down were BS because of the raging Pacific pattern that would destroy the setup. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

BUT - still have to consider this old saying "Every Dog has its Day"

If it's a hit, you must acquit.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Last big one LI had I think was 2 feet at islip and 6” west of nyc 

[Joe4alb]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Last big one LI had I think was 2 feet at islip and 6” west of nyc 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

 

Yes. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

You're saying the Boxing Day Blizzard was depicted on both the EURO and GFS as being over 150 miles southeast for days and then, within 48 hours, the models just started to show it move northwest and it eventually hit us?

Here' the forecast assessment for the Boxing Day Blizzard: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf

[UKWeatherGeek.]

NAVGEM.

[nycsnow]

Just now, UKWeatherGeek. said:

NAVGEM.

What website does it run on now 

[North and West]

What website does it run on now 

Mavis Beacon Teaches Typing


.

[UKWeatherGeek.]

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

What website does it run on now 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

Mavis Beacon Teaches Typing


.

...on an Underwood Portable Typewriter.

[NEG NAO]

35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs from CIPS. Some all time greats.

1) 1/23/16

2) 12/26/10

3) 1/8/96

4) 3/3/2010 - Massive rain and wind storm 

5) 2/24/89

Thats a RED FLAG right there - 3 KU's at the top ? - How does CIPS do with verification ?

[deathstar9]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Thats a RED FLAG right there - 3 KU's at the top ? - How does CIPS do with verification ?

This is bs, how can you have 2/3 top analogs storms with fairy marginal overall air masses vs the severe arctic outbreak we currently have.  They must go by a small number of criteria excluding some important ones.

[jconsor]

45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs from CIPS. Some all time greats.

1) 1/23/16

2) 12/26/10

3) 1/8/96

4) 3/3/2010 - Massive rain and wind storm 

5) 2/24/89

Nice find!  For context, this analog set is based on the 0Z GFS run.

Feb 1989 was a very heavy (in some cases) record snowstorm from GA to the eastern Carolinas and Delmarva, with heavy snow extending up to coastal NJ.  It missed NYC and western LI.

Two other MECS are in the top 10: Dec 30, 2000 and Feb 1, 2021.

At 500 mb the best match (closest analog) to the setup at day 4 is by far the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010.

Jan 1996, Jan 2016 and Feb 2021 are also respectable matches at 300 mb.

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2026012800

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

As noted earlier, the 1/28 0z EPS had about 20% of ensemble members showing 6" or more snow in New York City with about 10% having 10" or more. That's within the range of potential solutions, even as it might be a lower probability outcome right now.

Going back in time, here are excerpts from two AFDs from another storm that enjoyed some ensemble support while the models were too far to the east.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY 
CONTINUES TO DWINDLE...AS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER 
STORM HAS JOINED THE MODEL CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 1200 UTC ECMWF RUN HAS JOINED THE MODEL CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON 
IN ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL PHASING TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR MUCH OF AN 
IMPACT WITH REGARD TO SNOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...A 
CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING 
FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE DUE TO A BRUSH WITH 
THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM (AS IT BEING SHOWN BY THE ECMWF/GFS) OR THE 
PASSAGE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM (A BIT MORE LIKELY).

IN ANY EVENT...IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT 
WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS WANING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME WIGGLE 
ROOM ON THE TRACK (SINCE THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING THIS SYSTEM IS OVER 
THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.)...AND EASTERN AREAS OF NEW JERSEY 
COAST SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PULL THE 
PLUG ON THIS SYSTEM FOR US...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A GLANCING BLOW 
THAN A DIRECT HIT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
656 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

...MAIN FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS EVOLUTION OF COASTAL STORM AND HOW 
IT IMPACTS LOCAL CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MUCH DEPENDS ON PHASING OF 
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THESE UPPER 
FEATURES NOW ENTERING DENSE OBSERVATION NETWORK...SO EACH SUBSEQUENT 
MODEL RUN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS. 
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS 12Z 
RUN...ALONG WITH FASTER MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PER 
EC/GFS/NAM.

INITIALLY THE NAM/WRF REMAINS MUCH SLOWER WITH SOUTHERN STREAM 
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE 
DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 
MAIN TROUGH DIGS. LATEST NAM/WRF AND GFS TRACK THIS LOW JUST 
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...WITH MINIMAL QPF ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST 
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED EAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AS WELL. 
AS MENTIONED...SFC LOW MUCH FASTER TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF 
CLIPS CWA...WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL FORECASTING A FULL 
FLEDGED SNOWSTORM. WILL CONTINUE TO LAYER POPS FROM HIGHEST SE...TO 
LOWEST NW ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR 
TIMING...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE WHEN ANY ACCUMULATING 
SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR...IF IT DOES. STORM MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH AND 
EAST ON MONDAY. LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH 
AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MONDAY.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, deathstar9 said:

This is bs, how can you have 2/3 top analogs storms with fairy marginal overall air masses vs the severe arctic outbreak we currently have.  They must go by a small number of criteria excluding some important ones.

You have no idea what you’re talking about and I’ll just leave it at that.

[nycsnow]

Icon rolling, hoping for some positive changes 

[deathstar9]

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You have no idea what you’re talking about and I’ll just leave it at that.

Probably, I just don’t get how a top 5 analog can be a storm that was in such a marginal airmass that it led to a driving rainstorm deep into the Appalachians despite a near offshore track.

PS I do get there are other similarities but that alone should prevent a storm from being a close analog.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, deathstar9 said:

Probably, I just don’t get how a top 5 analog can be a storm that was in such a marginal airmass that it led to a driving rainstorm deep into the Appalachians despite a near offshore track.

Are you referring to March 2010? It was also March, not late January. There’s a lot more cold air to work with. The analogs are based on 500mb similarities. It’s just a tool to compare past events to current setups at 500mb. It doesn’t mean a repeat is likely.

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, deathstar9 said:

This is bs, how can you have 2/3 top analogs storms with fairy marginal overall air masses vs the severe arctic outbreak we currently have.  They must go by a small number of criteria excluding some important ones.

Here's the methodology from the paper that was printed when the CIPS initiative was being developed:

[SACRUS]

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Icon is still close but no cigar 

[NJwx85]

BTW, I was wrong. 3/3/10 was a snowstorm. 3/15/10 was the big rain storm that caused 9 deaths.

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Are you referring to March 2010? It was also March, not late January. There’s a lot more cold air to work with. The analogs are based on 500mb similarities. It’s just a tool to compare past events to current setups at 500mb. It doesn’t mean a repeat is likely.

by the way, though it was rain, it was a beast of a storm and caused lots of outages here; had to move a 60th birthday party for a friend at the last second because the restaurant lost power; we found a hotel that could accommodate us at the last second. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

BTW, I was wrong. 3/3/10 was a snowstorm. 3/15/10 was the big rain storm that caused 9 deaths.

no recollection of 3/3/10 at all.....