February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Da fuck talk up this early for? Insomnia is my excuse. Ain’t been to sleep yet

Insomnia for what? Myself was due to being Furlough again.

[GreyHat]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

No I think he was looking at this

JI your correct, as I grab it and didn't see that it had 3 average.  My bust.

ICON 6z says move south for qpf, nice hole of no qpf.

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The overnight runs are pretty bad for "decent" snow chances considering cold temps. I just wonder if those 5H anomaly maps that look so great aren't just going to end up with a storm passing to our west with front end snow to rain, then cold and dry once the cold front passes. I say this because it's just an average and bad things can happen during an otherwise decent averaged period, we saw it advertised last year with no results, and ensemble temps by the end of the current forecasts are warming. I also see the Niña fighting hard to hang on despite it's ultimate demise. I'm not calling fail, I'm just skeptical of those ensemble 5H patterns resulting in snow.

That’s the normal 

[GreyHat]

Euro AI looks little like the ICON 6z

[Blizzard of 93]

6z AI Euro looks active with chances with most of this snow taking place between day 11 & 15.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z AI Euro looks active with chances with most of this snow taking place between day 11 & 15.

Here are some 6z Euro Ai 24 hr snapshots to get a better idea of potential windows.

[Heisy]

The overnight runs are pretty bad for "decent" snow chances considering cold temps. I just wonder if those 5H anomaly maps that look so great aren't just going to end up with a storm passing to our west with front end snow to rain, then cold and dry once the cold front passes. I say this because it's just an average and bad things can happen during an otherwise decent averaged period, we saw it advertised last year with no results, and ensemble temps by the end of the current forecasts are warming. I also see the Niña fighting hard to hang on despite it's ultimate demise. I'm not calling fail, I'm just skeptical of those ensemble 5H patterns resulting in snow.
Edit: I'm referring to long range.

After whatever happens next week I think we’re shutout until around mid month, 15th-end of the month should open back up opportunities. At least that’s how it’s looking currently.

[RevWarReenactor]

6z gfs advertises the fear; cold dry followed by warm and rain in the extended, 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

6z gfs advertises the fear; cold dry followed by warm and rain in the extended, 

Good thing there's 0 chance the gfs is correct about anything. It's the confusion model. It just adds confusion to the forecast. I stopped even checking the gfs. I just wait every 12 hours for the Euro. 

[blizzardmeiser]

9 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

6z gfs advertises the fear; cold dry followed by warm and rain in the extended, 

That is what we do best. 

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

6z gfs advertises the fear; cold dry followed by warm and rain in the extended, 

I don't know 6z looks pretty active back this way 

[Terpeast]

Pattern still looks good. We’re not shut out, albeit a few days of a break (which we need haha)

[clueless]

It certainly doesn’t look terrible. We’ll warm eventually but still have cold in place when it counts. Timing, luck yadayada. I’ll be happy with some mid week flakes to top off the glacier.