February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Miller C actually

That’s the Chattanooga choo choo

[Kevin Reilly]

10 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Miller C actually

That’s got snow to sleet ending as a bit of freezing drizzle written all over it fun!

[bncho]

1 hour ago, Nomz said:

Miller C actually

Miller B-, that's how I feel about this winter anyway, a B-

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

Miller B-, that's how I feel about this winter anyway, a B-

For My yard it would be a C at best. Sitting at 12" with my seasonal average being in the upper 20s. If I fail to make it to 20" on the season that would be 5 winters In row. Something that has never happened since records started at HGR in 1899.

Actually the current 4 year stretch is the worst on record for HGR.

 

[Ji]

Gfs-Ai with a lot of precip for Feb 5-6

[stormy]

4 hours ago, TowsonWeather said:

There’s plenty of hyperbole on here about the GFS. And yet, I’ve read similarly hyperbolic and silly comments from you about the Euro.
 

Pretending otherwise or acting as if you’re just some level-headed bastion of objectivity is comically absurd.

The fact is that the Euro is consistently the best model - and yet YOU consistently shit on it, often using some oddly sourced IMBY-based critique that isn’t remotely relevant. 
 

Regardless, I don’t wanna derail the long term thread, so I’ll let this be my last word on the matter.

You are entitled to Your Opinion and I am entitled to mine.

 My opinion is only about the truth.

Since it's "consistently the best model" in your opinion, I'm very happy that it's finally catching on about 6 hrs. late to a threat on Wednesday/Thursday.   

Small, but it's there. 

 It might die and it might live but thankfully, spring is on the way.  

[NorthArlington101]

Gfs-Ai with a lot of precip for Feb 5-6

Sketchy surface temps. But that’s our normal.

[stormtracker]

GFS with a little nice event Wed.  Looks slightly wetter down here

[LeesburgWx]

It’s nice to have something new to track after these past few days. Make this missed storm a little easier to forget about. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

For My yard it would be a C at best. Sitting at 12" with my seasonal average being in the upper 20s. If I fail to make it to 20" on the season that would be 5 winters In row. Something that has never happened since records started at HGR in 1899.

Actually the current 4 year stretch is the worst on record for HGR.

 

I am with you brother. Worst decade of my life as far as snow goes. No joke. 

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS with a little nice event Wed.  Looks slightly wetter down here

[Scraff]

Moving forward—I only believe AI models named Euro. 

[Ji]

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I mean,  I'd take.  But fuck the GFS

[high risk]

I'm looking forward to those 4 hours above freezing on Tuesday!    

[clskinsfan]

Problem with e GFS solution is the 500 pass is in the Great Lakes. We have a cold air mass. But we did last week as well. Just being honest that looks like a glorified frontal pass to me. Still a ways out there though. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

Exactly

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Shocking I tell ya....

[NorthArlington101]

I mean,  I'd take.  But fuck the GFS

AIFS is on board. And I mean most things show it. But yeah, broke the don’t look at the GFS vow after about 3 hours. Oops

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS is on board. And I mean most things show it. But yeah, broke the don’t look at the GFS vow after about 3 hours. Oops

CMC not having it

[NorthArlington101]

CMC not having it

What if I told you the ICON was?

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

What if I told you the ICON was?

I have zero faith in any model.  If it's still there Tuesday, maybe

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What if I told you the ICON was?

How about the AI ICON? 

[Snowman.]

UKMET looks good

[NorthArlington101]

I have zero faith in any model.  If it's still there Tuesday, maybe

I meant what I said earlier that echos what @Heisy said. We’d all probably have better forecasts and expectations only looking at the AIFS until Day 3 or so when you start adding short range models for precip/temps. But that’s no fun. I love living and dying by each model run

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I meant what I said earlier that echos what @Heisy said. We’d all probably have better forecasts and expectations only looking at the AIFS until Day 3 or so when you start adding short range models for precip/temps. But that’s no fun. I love living and dying by each model run

We'll see.  At this point, a 4" storm would be a nice refresher

[Ji]

We'll see.  At this point, a 4" storm would be a nice refresher

Id kill for a 5-8 during the day time

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Id kill for a 5-8 during the day time

Yeah man. A 6 inch snow would make a lot of us feel better. Just feels weird to me that I am unhappy with a solid snowpack on the ground right now. Sometimes I think this hobby steals the fun out of just enjoying the winter. 

[Chris78]

21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CMC not having it

It's there but much weaker but its actually a little better compared to its 12z run.

[Ji]

Yeah man. A 6 inch snow would make a lot of us feel better. Just feels weird to me that I am unhappy with a solid snowpack on the ground right now. Sometimes I think this hobby steals the fun out of just enjoying the winter. 

Definitely not a healthy hobby. Most people get or not get snow without looking at 45 models a night